I made a short overview on how you can look on-chain to understand the psychology of the people you're trading against, and when you can size up.

I'll use $STRP & $ZERO as examples in this case. Yesterday I saw @StripsFinance - $STRP pop-up on my timeline.
At first sight an interesting project - the first decentralized perp Dex on Starknet.

I briefly wrote down the key elements I consider when entering a trade, exit a trade and when deciding on my bet size.

At the end I also wrote down my crypto-morning routine.

If it helps you, give it some love :)

👇 On entering a trade:

Reasons to enter a trade:

1. The project seems undervalued vs. competition.

Metrics to compare:

TVL
Market Cap from similair projects
Fees & revenue
User growth
Trading volume (dex)

Most can be found on Defillama, Dune or on the projects' website.

@UniDexFinance 's roadmap is so packed that people are overlooking & underestimating the fact that they will launch a mobile app.

For the first time (to my knowledge) people are going to be able to trade via a perp dex on mobile.

GMX, GNS,..., all via the same app.

$UNIDX

1/n I think this is quite the competitive advantage that should generate more volume and thus fees.

All of the fees are shared with holders & airdropped automatically to your wallet.

No ve/no locking/no staking.

I like that as it's easy for beginners to get exposure to real yield.

Billions of dollars are going to flow into DeFi post-Shanghai upgrade in the form of ETH-derivates.

Many call it a second LSD-narrative.

I call for a new DeFi-primitive, that of LSDfi.

@ZeroLiquid_xyz - $ZERO is one of the first movers in this new primitive.

A deep dive 👇 What is $ZERO?

Zero issues self-repaying loans against your LSD-tokens with 0% interest and no risk of liquidation.

You could call them the Alchemix of LSD

With all of the attention being on Arbitrum & ZK-sync, people are missing what could be the biggest money-making opportunity of the year.

There is more than $25 billion worth of Ethereum that is about to find it's way back into the DeFi landscape through liquid staking.

1/n Many people seem to focus on LSD protocols like Lido, but the music doesn't stop there, it barely started playing.

I'm giving away 5 WL spots for the @ChronosFi_ NFT mint!
Details at the end.

Chronos is an innovative AMM that has the potential to become the Arbitrum liquidity hub.

Their maturity LP tackles one of DeFi's biggest problem, that of Mercenary capital.

Let's dive in 🧵 The mission of Chronos is to create a true liquidity layer for the Arbitrum network that benefits all participants by making it easy for everyone to incentivize token liquidity.

$ARX - @arbidex_fi looks interesting:

- Dex on Arbi - returns swap fees to stakers in $BTC

- $3.2 million market cap - $102 million TVL.

- $GRAIL has $105 million TVL at $38 million market cap.

- 8th biggest DEX on Arbi based on TVL

- Liquidity pools for $ARB go live today Some other interesting points:

- 100% of revenue is shared with $ARX stakers in $BTC, $ETH & $USDC

- Team did KYC with Vital Bloc Security

- Partnered with $TAROT & $IBEX

- Earn $ARB by staking $ARX

https://twitter.com/arbidex_fi/status/1638865755071471620?s=20

The REAL alpha behind Level is in LGO - it's staking token.

The mechanisms behind $LGO are brilliant and a true innovation in terms of tokenomics

A dive into one of the most interesting staking mechanism in the industry/

👇 Level is a decentralized derivates platform on the BSC chain.

Their statistics are impressive, considering they launched only 2 months ago.

https://twitter.com/CryptoDamus411/status/1632659819177054214

Level - @Level__Finance update:

1. Fees

Yesterday Level generated $124K in fees.
GMX generated $143K in fees.
GNS generated $35K in fees.

Level Market Cap: $23 million
GMX Market Cap: $557 million
GNS Market Cap: $217 million 2. Quantstamp Audit

Expected mid-March.
Why is this relevant?

Quantstamp looks for smart contract vulnerabilities.

Whales often wait to go in with size until they know there are no smart contract bugs.

$EDE- @ede_finance update:

- Ede did 74% of the trading volume of $GNS over the weekend, yet it's market cap is around 50X smaller.

Despite lower volume, the fees generated per 24h are similar.

https://twitter.com/resdegen/status/1627559759246159872

Perpetual Exchanges are gaining some traction.

It seems $LVL & $EDE are on the radar of some important people as well.

https://twitter.com/cryptokevin2011/status/1627214465291915265

- Perpetual Exchanges are gaining nice traction.

It seems $LVL & $EDE are on the radar of some important people as well:

https://twitter.com/cryptokevin2011/status/1627214465291915265?s=20

'But it's on BSC'

People seem to ignore the fact that the BSC is the second biggest chain next to Ethereum, and even has more daily active users than Ethereum, and it's not even close:

How to evaluate if something is a good buy?

Ask yourself where the new buyers are going to come from.

Here is where they usually come from:

1. Catalysts
2. Improved liquidity
3. Partnerships with other projects
4. Improved tokenomics
5. Future narratives

1/n When going through the above 5 points, ask yourself how early you are?

Where did you read this info?
Did the team hint at in in their Discord in the middle of the night?
Then you're probably early.

Is it all over Twitter?
Then you're probably late.
Let it go and move on.

The Shanghai-upgrade will take place in March '23.

This upgrade will create a new narrative of protocols benefiting from the competition between LSD-protocols.

My bull case as to why I believe @AuraFinance - $AURA will be a massive winner in the LSD competition

Thread
1/31 Intro:

Liquid staking is currently a one-way street.
Users that stake ETH to secure the network, currently can't unstake their ETH.

Don't know when you should enter the market?

Here's a step by step framework on how to set up your own investment thesis, with concrete examples from myself👇 1. Pick a bias

A bias is a tendency or inclination towards something or someone.

Do you think it's more likely we go up or down?

Most people focus on what they don't know.
You should focus on what you DO know, and make deductions based of that.

Some thoughts on Ethereum, BTC, other narratives & projects I'll be looking into:

1. Scalability on ETH (L2) wtih cross-chain operability & instant bridging are my top picks for the future.

I'm a very strong Ethereum-believer.

1/34 People evaluate L1's on metrics such as speed & scalability which, without traffic & developers coming to your network, are meaningless metrics.

Secondly, all of the L1's claiming to be ETH-killers have never experienced the traffic $ETH has to proof so (look at Solana).

I'm doing a series where I cover very simple concepts that will improve your decision making process.

Already covered:

- Asymmetric betting
- Probabilistic thinking

In this thread I will talk about the concept of 'the cost of opportunity'

Let's go👇 The concept of opportunity is a very simple concept but is something you always need to consider when making an investment.

The opportunity cost represent the potential benefit an individual misses out when choosing one alternative over another.

I usually don't post this type of content but this is too important to ignore.

$WAVES & $USDN are going to collapse the same way as $LUNA & $UST.

$USDN will depeg, go to 0 and take $WAVES with it.

A thread🧵 TLDR summary:

- Reserves are being drained by arbitrage traders, down almost 50% in 15 days
- Liquidity pools are heavily unbalanced (86% USDN)
- Collateral keeps on decreaing (33% atm)
- Price is being manipulated by borrowing to buy WAVES
- USDN mcap > Waves mcap

If it's your time in a market like these, you probably feel lost.

I made a lot of mistakes during in my first bearmarket.

Below a thread with guidance on how to survive during times like these👇 1. Understand where this is coming from

Charts are nothing more than an analysis of human psychology.

Rising wedge pattern = pattern of human greed
Falling wedge = pattern of human fear

And so on, and so on

You're probably thinking you got into crypto at the wrong time.

Everyone, regardless of when they enter (beginning or end of bull) has to go through at least 1 cycle to make mistakes, learn & lose money.

It's the price you pay to learn this game

1/n Following the above logic, it doesn't really matter that much when you enter.
You probably wouldn't have taken profits anyway and you'd be in the same situation as now.

I'm 100% we'll get another bullrun and if you act accordingly, you can make life changing money.

Probabilistic thinking is a concept which can drastically improve your decision making process when investing in crypto.

Here is a thread on what it is, how to calculate the expected value & how you can make better decisions👇 This is part of a series where I explain a couple of simple concepts to help you improve your decision making so you can make better investments.

The first concept was the concept of asymmetric betting, explained in the below thread:

https://twitter.com/CryptoDamus411/status/1518657293159591936

The more you are involved in a project and in the community around it, the higher the chance you'll develop a cognitive bias.

You're so involved that you start blocking out information that doesn't fit your investment thesis. There lies a big profit opportunity in recognizing & accepting you are wrong and changing your actions.

Nowadays there is so much information going around that it would illogical, at a certain point in time, to NOT change your investment thesis.