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Sep 20 4 tweets 1 min read
HUGE flip in the New Hampshire House tonight: Democrat Hal Rafter wins in a landslide! GOP margin now 198-197. If Dems win another special in a safely blue seat on Nov. 7, they'll tie the chamber. Much more ➔ dailykos.com/stories/2023/9… Rafter won by a 56-44 margin in a district that was almost dead-even on the presidential level, so he turned in a 12-point overperformance—the fourth strong showing by New Hampshire Democrats in four tries this year. Our full special elections Big Board: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
May 17 8 tweets 3 min read
Just an *exceptional* night for Democrats at the ballot box across the board. THREAD:

The biggest news is in Jacksonville, where Ds won the mayor's race in Florida's biggest city for just the 2nd time in 30 years. Huge shot in the arm after rough midterms Second, Dems have held a critical PA state House seat in a special election, preserving the *one*-seat majority they unexpectedly won last year
Apr 6 5 tweets 2 min read
So *obviously* we're going in-depth on Janet Protasiewicz's incredible blowout in Wisconsin on The Downballot this week, but we're also discussing Alaska's unique politics with former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (@jkt_ak). Fantastic episode! player.captivate.fm/episode/852831… Jonathan recounts his unlikely journey to the Alaska state House after winning a huge upset while still in college (!). He also explains how Democrats, independents, and even a few Republicans forged a remarkable cross-partisan governing coalition that lasted for many years
Apr 5 4 tweets 1 min read
WI SD-08 special has 411 vote LEAD for Dem Jodi Habush Sinykin with 84% of precincts in (not clear how much of total estimated vote that represents). Republican Dan Knodl now up by 112 votes with 86% of precincts in. Not clear what areas are left
Apr 5 5 tweets 1 min read
The AP estimates 18% of Chicago's vote is in, and Paul Vallas leads 53-47. We've jumped to 48% of estimated vote in, Vallas 52-48.
Dec 7, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read
Polls have closed in Georgia for our final Senate race of 2022! We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here! dailykos.com/stories/2022/1… As in most elections, the big thing to watch out for early will be a split between early votes, which will probably be disproportionately Dem, and Election Day. Just looking at what county votes are coming from gives us an incomplete, and sometimes misleading, picture.
Nov 23, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
This week's episode of The Downballot is coming at you a day early so that you can download & listen before the holiday! Guest-host @JoeSudbay is back to discuss the last few results of 2022 and look ahead to 2024 player.captivate.fm/episode/543281… On tap:

• Why the #AZAG recount likely won't change the D win

• The huge win for AZ's Prop 308, which allows financial aid regardless of immigration status

• Dem flips of two big county boards in CA: Orange & Riverside

• Ds we'd like to see run for the House again in '24
Nov 12, 2022 15 tweets 6 min read
Bookmark this —> So, about the battle for the 203-member PA state House: In order to get elected speaker, you need 102 votes. Not just a majority of those present—102 votes, minimum. And there are some real potential hurdles for Dems
Nov 10, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Helluva fun episode of The Downballot this week! Co-hosts @DavidNir & @dwbeard take stock of the incredible election we all just witnessed player.captivate.fm/episode/44fe02… Where do we even begin? We know exactly where: abortion. We examine this issue that animated Dems as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. We also discuss candidate quality (still important!), Dem meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and more!
Sep 7, 2022 10 tweets 5 min read
Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.

We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
Aug 24, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
Hero of the night is looking like @votevets. They spent $500,000 to help Pat Ryan in #NY19 and were the only Dem group to really get involved in terms of independent expenditures No AP call in #NY23 GOP primary yet, but NBC has called it for state party chair Nick Langworthy. Black eye for Elise Stefanik, #3 in the House GOP, who endorsed racist Carl Paladino—a move that led other House GOP leaders to claim she'd "gone rogue"! nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Aug 24, 2022 46 tweets 18 min read
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest. Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
Aug 23, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read
Gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has expanded his lead in safely blue #FL10. 76% of estimated vote in, he's beating state Sen. Randolph Bracy 34-25; ex-Reps. Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown at 16 and 10. #FL11 is TIGHT. 71% of estimated vote in, Webster leads Loomer 47.8-47.7, margin of 95 VOTES.
Aug 23, 2022 23 tweets 7 min read
Polls have closed in most of Florida, where a huge amount of votes usually start coming in early; Oklahoma is at 8 PM ET/ 7 local time, New York 9 ET. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8… This is the biggest U.S. election night from now till November. Check out our cheat sheet for what to follow! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Aug 3, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2 57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Aug 3, 2022 15 tweets 5 min read
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03 We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
Aug 3, 2022 25 tweets 6 min read
NO side leads in Kansas 66-34 with 45% of AP's estimated vote in. Much of populous Johnson County; no side up 72-28 with 70% reporting there; Laura Kelly got 55% there in 2018. The AP has called #MIGOV GOP primary for Tudor Dixon. The conservative commentator was an also-ran until 5 opponents thrown off ballot, now GOP's nominee in huge race against Dem Gretchen Whitmer.
Aug 3, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
20% of estimated vote in for #KSAG GOP primary, Kobach's lead has widened a bit to 40-35. Winner will go up against In #MI03 primary, Trump-backed John Gibbs leads freshman Rep. Peter Meijer 53-47 with 11% of estimated vote in. Winner faces 2020 Dem nominee Hillary Scholten in seat that redistricting transformed from 51-47 Trump to 53-45 BIDEN.
Aug 3, 2022 26 tweets 9 min read
Polls have closed in Missouri and most of Kansas and Michigan for a huge election night. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8… While we wait for our first results, check out our preview of what to watch here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
Jan 14, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
Some very harsh (and justified) language from the Ohio Supreme Court in striking down the GOP's gerrymandered congressional maps supremecourt.ohio.gov/rod/docs/pdf/0… Very important thing to note about Ohio Supreme Court striking down the GOP's new congressional maps:

Democrat Jennifer Brunner flipped a Republican-held seat in 2020. That shifted the court from 5R-2D to 4R-3D, with moderate R Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor joining the liberals
Nov 2, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read
Polls have closed in #VAGOV as well as for more contests, and we'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2021/1… 28,000 votes counted for Dem primary in safely blue #FL20, Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness leads self-funder Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick 28-21