Some people are unhappy with the AI 2027 title and our AI timelines. Let me quickly clarify:
We’re not confident that:
1. AGI will happen in exactly 2027 (2027 is one of the most likely specific years though!)
2. It will take <1 yr to get from AGI to ASI
3. AGIs will definitely be misaligned
We’re confident that:
1. AGI and ASI will eventually be built and might be built soon
2. ASI will be wildly transformative
3. We’re not ready for AGI and should be taking this whole situation way more seriously
🧵 with more details All AI 2027 authors, at the time of publication, thought that AGI by the end of 2027 was at least >10%, and that the single most likely year AGI would arrive is either 2027 or 2028. I, lead author, thought AGI by end of 2027 was ~40% (i.e. not quite my median forecast). We clarified this in AI 2027 itself, from day 1:

1/15: In April, I resigned from OpenAI after losing confidence that the company would behave responsibly in its attempt to build artificial general intelligence — “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” openai.com/index/planning… 2/15: I joined with the hope that we would invest much more in safety research as our systems became more capable, but OpenAI never made this pivot. People started resigning when they realized this. I was not the first or last to do so.