How to find the top in this cycle. A thread.

When you see these 10 signals flashing, it's time to bail. Signal 9 will tell you when to sell altcoins.

Bookmark this thread! Let's go. 1/12 🧵 2/ Signal 1: Terminal Price

Bitcoin price hits the red line? Sell hard.

Current terminal price is 170k.

This accounts for the movement of Bitcoin on-chain. @_Checkmatey_ invented this indicator.

Bitcoin is in trouble.

If nothing changes soon, things won’t be pretty.

I’m not talking about the halving schedule or block rewards, it’s much more serious than that.

A thread 1/17 🧵 2/ As Bitcoin goes mainstream, fees to transact on its network will replace block rewards.

This will be gradual and take place over decades. However, a new problem is starting to emerge.

It was harder to predict this, but now it’s here.

If you hold Ethereum, you are in trouble.

Uniswap, an ETH dApp generating $500 mil / year in fees, just created its own L2. Now, those fees are reduced by 100x and go into Uniswap pocket.

Multiply this by 100x with other dApps and ETH's price will go to zero. A thread 1/12 🧵 2/ The reason Ethereum has value is because of its fees that generate demand for its native token.

At the time of this post, it costs over $10 for a simple token swap.

ETH is on borrowed time as users are rightfully ditching this expensive chain. Who's to blame?

It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 3!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 3. A thread. (1/11) 🧵 2/ Since I started in 2014, I made many mistakes, but nothing compares to this one.

Buying altcoins.

But what did I know back then? Nothing. If you're new to crypto, learn from this thread.

What's my lost profit over the years thanks to alts?

Last night I was the victim of one of the most complex social engineering scams I've ever seen impersonating @paraficapital staff.

If you're in crypto, you are a target.

This thread will show you how they did it and if they succeeded. Time to find out - 1/15 🧵 2/ If you have any following they will target you. Their account will look spotless, clean text + X verified.

Ryan is a Principal of a billion dollar crypto company and sends you a DM on X, then he moves you to TG.

Your first priority is to confirm credentials. How?

It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 2!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 2. A thread. (1/12) 🧵 2/ Altcoins are highly extractive.

VCs print tokens from thin air with a cost basis of ZERO.

When there is any demand for their token, they sell and absorb that demand. This is how they take your money, legally.

This is also why your blue chip alt didn't make a new ATH.

It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this.

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 1. A thread. (1/11) 🧵 2/ Ethereum is having an existential crisis.

What's the point of ETH if all transactions + volume moved to its L2s?

Until ETH finds its purpose again, L1s like Solana will chip away at it.

It still has the mass, but the clock is ticking and Vitalik singing won't fix it.

Years ago, I used to work long corporate hours. Left work late, burnouts too.

Then I quit.

I sometimes think of my colleagues still there today. Here’s what I did different. A thread 🧵 2/ I bet on myself.

I always had an appetite for risk. Leaving a “stable job and life” for the unknown felt liberating.

Looking back, that old life was more like prison.

🚨 WTF is going on with WBTC?

BitGo, the custodian of this $9.4 bil mcap token, shocked the DeFi ecosystem. They plan to move the BTC backing to multiple jurisdictions.

All good until you read Justin Sun is a strategic partner in this move.

Time for a thread (1/10) 🧵 2/ Here's the latest timeline:

9 Aug - BitGo announces move of assets to Bit Global, a Hong Kong entity. This joint venture will make BitGo a minority shareholder

10 Aug - MakerDAO (DAI creators) discuss off-boarding WBTC from their app

13 Aug - Coinbase announced cbBTC

There are four narratives making waves in crypto right now:

1️⃣ Ethereum is dying
2⃣ Bitcoin FOMO by institutions
3⃣ XRP settled with the SEC
4⃣ Blast chain turned into a slow rug

Let's dissect them one by one. An XL thread (1/16) 🧵 2/ When both Bitcoin and Solana outperform Ethereum, you got to ask yourself some serious questions.

ETH maxis and devs are already throwing the towel. What is going on here?

I may have an answer to this puzzling conundrum with tweet #15 about to shock you. Next.

🚨 WTF is going on?

Japan's Nikkei just had the largest crash in history, Bitcoin went under 50k, and the US FED will hold an emergency meeting today.

TLDR: Leverage. A tiny thread (1/6) 🧵 2/ Five days ago, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased interest rates from 0% to 0.25%. This early increase surprised the market.

Before this, anyone could borrow Yen at no interest, change them to USD, and buy stocks. Free money basically.

But there was a problem.

You just bought more Solana expecting it to reach $1,000.

Meanwhile, VCs are laughing at you as they print millions of new tokens from thin air.

In total, 60 mil SOL since August 2023 or 15% inflation per year. You're lucky if SOL breaks over $200 again. A tiny thread (1/4) 🧵 2/ I know Solana delivered a 25x since it was $8 at the peak of the last bear market.

It did well, I agree. But don't fool yourself to think it can do that again. Why?

Its circulating supply was 301 mil at $260 in Oct 2021 (ATH). Three years later it added 161 mil new tokens!

BREAKING: You don't have an exit plan, do you?

The market pumps, Trump gets elected, you're looking at Lambos, but there's one thing missing.

You didn't sell. Here's how to do it with conviction!

A long-ass thread (1/19) 🧵 2/ There are five actions you must take to win at this game:

1⃣ Have an exit plan.

If you don't, you will miss your exit window and end up like the guy in the picture.

Lets explore that next and hit a follow @du09btc to never miss out.

🚨 There is a hidden war on Solana between big players.

Users have no clue, but the consequence of that are endless failed transactions!

There is only so much space available and the ones with the bigger guns win.

Here's what they don't tell you. A thread (1/10). 🧵 2/ Big players on Solana are at war. How?

They DDOS each other for block space priority.

The victims of this war are Solana users. You can't get your transaction confirmed because big players take up all that space for themselves to come on top.

Here's how they wage war. 👇

🧵 Issuing $100 mil DAI to farm USDe is one thing, issuing billions is asking to get hurt.

Why does MakerDAO plan to risk it and mint $1 bil DAI to farm Ethena yields?

Can DAI depeg when USDe inevitably falls under $1?

A bold move or something else? A thread (1/20). 👇 2/ This post was inspired by AAVE Chan founder @lemiscate who raised the alarm.

TLRD: He's right. MakerDAO actions are reckless and fueled by greed.

But if you take a closer look at the risks for DAI, a new image emerges. 👇

https://x.com/DU09BTC/status/1775042478518788565?s=20

1/ What Ethena has built is impressive & hard. A short 🧵

The reason every big name is on board is the opportunity for profits.

For every perpetual long in crypto, Ethena will be the counterparty farming the ETH funding rates you pay.

A day after launch, USDe TVL is $300 mil 2/ Ethena is impressive due to its scale, complexities required and parties involved, but also benefits.

USDe is a synthetic stable 100% backed by a delta neutral ETH position farming yields:

50% stETH (spot), 3-6% APY
50% ETH short position, funding rates <30% APY

Nice eh?

🚨 Are Liquid Staking Tokens (LST) creating a ponzi?

▫️ I stake ETH and get stETH
▫️ I re-stake stETH and get lpETH
▫️ I re-stake lpETH and get xxETH
▫️ ...infinity...

stETH lost its peg vs ETH in the past!

This will turn into a giant crash one day.

You cannot create more value from NOTHING!

Restacking and LST tokens start to sound like ponzinomics to me.

Every cycle of re-stacking is just MORE LEVERAGE on the original asset, i.e. Ethereum!

When the peg WILL be lost, it will be BRUTAL.

Plan for it if you use LST. 100%!

🧵 The best trader in the world is Jim Simons.

Average yearly return of 66% for 30 years. His Medallion Fund is open only to his staff.

His secret? Mechanical trading using computers and gazillions of data to predict the future.

He lived in 2023 back in 1988. But there's more! 2/ To join him you need a degree in computer science, mathematics, physics or statistics.

Out of 300 employees, 100 have a PhD in the above. If you're a Wall Street trader you wont be hired.

In the beginning, he failed as a trader using traditional methods.

I've been researching @THORChain

They say you can take loans at:

🔸 0% interest
🔸 no liquidations
🔸 no expiry

What? Here are my findings. A thread. 🧵

(01/16) #RUNE 2/ I became intrigued by RUNE pumping after they launched their new lending mechanism.

If their loan terms don't surprise you, then this may:

🔸 They don't even want you to pay back your loan

What's going on here? Red flag or a smart design?

1/ The bull market is coming. A thread 🧵

The time to plan is now. Follow this guide to build your portfolio and action plan.

Includes asymmetric bets you can’t miss!

✅ Tip 1: Execute your exit when FOMO starts.

More tips at the end of this thread. 2/ The bear market is over.

This means you need to start planning for the next bull run. Some call for ATH this year. Bold.

Use this time in between to position yourself!

It’s irrelevant when the new ATH comes.

What matters is…

A quick trading guide for beginners. 👇

Learn the basics, practice, then master the market.

Remember, the market is always right.

A thread. 🧵 1/ Understand risk/reward or R-Multiple

Always aim for R3 or above.

This way your win rate can be under 30% and you're still profitable!

Risk $1 or to win $3. Avoid anything under R2.

How to find the R? Measure your stop loss vs your profit target.

Recovery rate next. 👇