2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

Some solid assessments w/out the usual hyperbole, but also some clinkers IMO, skating over important distinctions n failing to acknowledge counter-evidence. I’ll provide some details later. dni.gov/index.php/news… IC assessment: “President Xi Jinping’s vision of making China the preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage….” It has now become conventional wisdom to view China as seeking regional hegemony. But does CN require preeminence, as opposed to security? 1/

Long thread; bear with me; this FA piece does a good job of stressing XJP’s Leninist n pro-USSR views n his propaganda supporting the idea, common in CP tracts, of a prolonged “struggle” of capitalism v communism n the decline of the West; this has…1/ foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinpi… …been known to observers of XJP for years, so little new here. Xi’s CCP-dominated view of CN’s development is extreme n wrong-headed n will not serve CN’s interests. What is relatively new, but highly distorted, in this piece is the notion that XJP’s views support the…2/

Kirby n the WH must be smoking something if they think “nothing has changed” in US TW policy. This issue is not about rights and supposed precedent. It is about where we r TODAY in the relationship n what accumulated changes over time have produced…1/ therecount.com/watch/national… US officials can talk until they’re blue in the face over not supporting TW independence. The CN believe their actions belie their words n regard the Pelosi trip as a major betrayal of past limits (n Biden’s assurances 2 Xi) n a signal of a U.S. desire 2 “normalize” a 1 CN…2/

Folks this is the major report I have been alluding to in previous Tweets. It is to my knowledge the most detailed, rigorous, and thorough assessment of the US force posture in Asia in the public sphere. It argues 4 the creation of a defense-oriented…1/ quincyinst.org/report/active-… …financially feasible (no huge defense increases), non-escalatory, and effective US defense posture n strategy for the next 15 years or so. It rejects primacy, rejects strategic clarity 4 TW, yet offers a highly credible means of reducing incentives to conflict n…2/

Read the speech closely. Another senior USG official is trying to assuage critics of the zero-sum US stance toward CN by saying the US wants a productive and successful China. Here’s my view on this approach and it’s flaws thus far, at least.... reuters.com/article/us-usa… US strategy is:

1. Raise the alarm about the extent and severity of the China threat to the global order and Western values to increase support among the US public n US friends for tough, likely disruptive policies, as part of a sharp, largely zero-sum, confrontational policy...