Finally, for the first time in more than a decade, Wisconsin has new, fairer maps for its state legislature. Either party could win the majority in the Assembly. Shouldn't be a groundbreaking concept, but that's where we are.

It's going to come down to these 12 seats.🧵 In previous years when I'd previewed the State Assembly, it was more likely that Republicans could win a supermajority than Democrats win a simple majority...here in this 50-50 purple state.

My column introducting the Assembly preview: therecombobulationarea.news/p/2024-wiscons…

Great to see so much recognition for #DayWithoutChildcare today from Democratic lawmakers in Wisconsin.

It’s really important that our legislators recognize how vital this issue is to families around Wisconsin. Funding for Child Care Counts was *not* one of the 540+ policies Republicans voted out of the budget last week. Republican JFC co-chair Howard Marklein even said in a press conference that they’d heard a lot about child care during listening sessions, which seems significant.

Minnesota is about to pass paid leave.

In Wisconsin, paid leave has overwhelming majority support across the political spectrum.

Democrats: 95% in favor
Independents: 65%
Republicans: 62%

Republicans in the state legislature just voted this out of the budget last week.

https://twitter.com/govtimwalz/status/1655703499076694021

Some Republicans were floating the possibility of enacting a paid leave policy after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Of course, they didn’t follow through in this initial vote. 

Perhaps that was just some typical campaign posturing?
heartlandsignal.com/2023/05/04/opi…

Facts to consider with the shared revenue debate: Wisconsin ranks last in the country in *state* spending on law enforcement and in the top ten in *municipal* spending on law enforcement. (h/t @WisPolicyForum) @WisPolicyForum The city of Milwaukee ranks 2nd in the nation among America's 72 largest cities for % of its city funds spent on policing. vera.org/publications/w…

This week, Wisconsin Republicans voted to remove more than 540 items from Gov. Evers’ proposed budget. We’ve accepted this total lack of bipartisanship as just part of the process in divided government.

They are also removing policies that have overwhelming majority support. This week’s column is on that very issue, which is harming the state’s ability to get anything done. It’s also the type of policy that’s hurting Republicans as their statewide losses continue to mount. recombobulationarea.substack.com/p/republicans-…

Republicans in Madison have spent the last decade-plus consolidating power and money in the state legislature and now they have outsized power and are sitting on a $7 billion surplus that exists in large part because they’ve starved local government. It’s time to return it.

https://twitter.com/SenChrisLarson/status/1654513311742918658

This has meant Milwaukee, the state’s largest and most diverse city, effectively has its municipal budget cut by $150 million *every year* and is now facing steep cuts.

The Wisconsin State Legislature is widely considered to be among, if not the most, gerrymandered state legislature in the nation.

In less than 2 weeks, the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court could finally change that.

THREAD

🧵🚨🧵🚨🧵 Wisconsin Republicans enjoy outsized, entrenched majorities in the state legislature. Even though Wisconsin is a 50-50 state and statewide elections are often decided by decimal points, Republicans hold more than 60% of seats in the Senate and Assembly.

It doesn’t add up!

Foxconn is saying they're going to build EV batteries in Wisconsin. I'm sure they're serious this time! asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supp… I'm still holding out hope for their "Coffee Hauses"
cbs58.com/news/foxconn-w…

Barring any unexpected updates, the breakdown in the Wisconsin State Legislature will be as follows:

Senate:
Republican 22 - Democratic 11

Assembly:
Republican 64 - Democratic 35

This is in a year where the Democratic governor won by 3.5% and the Republican senator won by 1%. The State Supreme Court race next spring now looms especially large. The conservative Chief Justice is retiring, and liberals will have a chance to win majority control of the court. That would potentially open up legal challenges to these ridiculously unfair maps.

In the State Assembly, the GOP was expected to add three seats (and possibly five). They won't get five, they won't get the supermajority.

They might get three, but the only seat they're certain to flip is the 13th – perhaps the single most gerrymandered district on the new map. Democrats flipped the 13th in 2020, and it was a 50-50 seat. Republicans redrew the map to give the seat a 16-point GOP lean.

Republican Tom Michalski is on track to win there by about 13%.

Ron Johnson refused to accept the election results in 2020, when Joe Biden won by a similarly tight margin. Now, when he's up and likely to win, he's blaming the "corporate media" for not calling the race.

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1590368640322658306

Ron Johnson on Nov. 10, 2020:

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1326225121938464768

don’t overreact to exit polls, don’t overreact to lines, just wait a couple more hours for those results to roll in in the meantime i suggest you subscribe to The Recombobulation Area recombobulationarea.substack.com/subscribe

Mandela Barnes stopped by the UWM campus this afternoon to meet with young voters. I’ll be adding some quotes to The Recombobulation Area’s LIVE BLOG later this afternoon. recombobulationarea.substack.com/p/2022-wiscons…

KEY RACE: The 94th Assembly District. Democrat Steve Doyle is looking to hold on in a shifting region in La Crosse County.

He's facing Republican Ryan Heubsch, son of former Assembly Speaker Mike Heubsch. This might be the most closely contested race off all 99 in the Assembly. This was the one genuine toss-up in my state legislature preview series, and now @CNalysis has it as "Tilt R" and the "hardest pick" they made in the Assembly. cnalysis.com/articles/our-f…

The @CNalysis final forecasts have Republicans coming up one seat short of a supermajority in the state legislature.

"Republicans need to win 66 seats in the Assembly for a supermajority, we have them favored in 65 of them."
cnalysis.com/articles/our-f… @CNalysis The final projections have Lori Palmeri holding the 54th for Democrats in Oshkosh and Katrina Shankland winning in Stevens Point, but Republicans winning in the closely contested 94th in La Crosse County along with flipping three other seats where they're favored.

In the final pre-election Marquette poll in 2018, Tammy Baldwin led by an 11-point margin (and that’s what she won by).

In the latest Marquette poll, Ron Johnson leads by just 2%. Mandela Barnes has an infinitely better chance of pulling off an upset than Leah Vukmir did. Baldwin led with independents by a 22-point margin. Johnson is ahead with independents by a seven-point margin.

Those of you who have followed along with my poll breakdowns have seen Ron Johnson leading with younger voters in Wisconsin (left*).

That changed in the final pre-election Marquette poll, which saw voters age 18-29 back Mandela Barnes 68% to Johnson's 32% (right**). *This chart combines results from three polls, from August, September and October

**Left to right: Mandela Barnes - Ron Johnson - Neither - Don't know - sample size

This won't make my final Marquette poll breakdown, but too interesting not to share.

Inflation is the top concern in this race. We all know this by now. But for those making less than $40K, it ranks *fourth* for which issue voters are "very concerned" about. Among those making under $40K, here is a ranking of the number of voters who way they are "very concerned" by an issue:

Gun violence 64%
Public schools 63%
Abortion 63%
Inflation 54%
Crime 51%
Accurate vote count 50%
Illegal immigration 36%
Taxes 31%

New Fox News poll of Wisconsin:

Senate:
Johnson: 48%
Barnes: 45%
Undecided: 8%

Governor:
Michels: 48%
Evers: 47%
Undecided: 7% Full breakdown: foxnews.com/official-polls…

.@CNalysis has updated projections for Wisconsin state legislative seats. Almost all projections favor Republicans.

They are now giving Republicans a 49% chance of gaining a supermajority in the State Assembly.
projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-le… Some of the most significant shifts:

45th (Beloit): Lean D➡️Tilt D
54th (Oshkosh): Tilt D➡️Toss-Up
71st (Stevens Point): Lean D➡️Tilt D
64th (Eastern Kenosha/Racine counties): Likely D➡️Lean D

KEY RACE: The 73rd, in the far northwest corner of the state. This is an open seat with Democrat Nick Milroy not seeking re-election. This is a top pickup target for Republicans, as Trump won here in 2020. Redistricting also gave it ~3% more of a GOP lean.
recombobulationarea.substack.com/p/wisconsin-st… The Democrat looking to hold the seat is @laura4assembly, who currently serves on the board of the Superior School District, is the the owner of a legal firm working with child victims and families, and chairs the City of Superior Mayor’s Human Trafficking Task Force Commission.