🧵on the 2024 POTUS forecast from @TheEconomist, which is live at . It's virtually the same model we used in 2020, which launched with 83% for Biden. We show Trump in a stronger position than other models do (65% favorite). 1/neconomist.com/interactive/us… How do we get to such a relatively high number? Well, Trump is up by a point in national polls, and has an electoral-college advantage as well. He leads polling averages in every plausibly decisive state, by margins ranging from a near-tie (WI/MI) to a ~5-point lead (GA/NV). 2/n

🧵on a few interesting nuggets from our story this week on lessons from our 50K YouGov polling sample (): (1/x)economist.com/united-states/… 1. As you move up in age, white voters move right—except for the baby boomers, who are more Dem than either Gen X (younger) or Silent (older). Young white women are Trumpier than young white men?! Black voters move left at higher ages, & their gender gap shrinks. 2/x

After a few technical hiccups this morning, @TheEconomist's US Congressional forecasts have been finalized. Dems are >99% to hold the House, with an avg of 244 seats, and 80% to flip the Senate, with an avg of 52.2 seats. projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca… 1/n There HAS been tightening: our mean Dem Senate seat total fell by 0.3 in the final 2 days. Much of this has been final polls reverting towards fundamentals: Dem chances in KS fell from a hi of 37% down to 17%; in SC from a hi of 41% to 31%; in ME from a hi of 78% down to 69% 2/n

This is a helpful reminder. George W. Bush was also up by 10-11 pts on Gore in August before going on to lose the popular vote. However, in my view, the VERY big diff b/w 2020 and these prior cycles is fundamentals. Both 1988 and 2000 featured parties with popular 2-term 1/n

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1287412579854438404

incumbents running for a very difficult 3rd straight term amid a pretty-good economy. In my fundamentals model, that yields an expectation of a very close race (in the end, not a very good prediction for 1988). The basic patterns political scientists have identified 2 explain 2/n

THREAD re the "everybody's-got-it" school of covid truthery, which my story this wk in @TheEconomist economist.com/graphic-detail…, based on study by @inschool4life & @Alex_Washburne, supports. Most impt pt is that these results do NOT mean we should end/loosen lockdowns now/soon. 1/n By now, every1 following this knows that only a minority of people w/ covid-19 are getting tested, & that a substantial share have mild or totally asymptomatic cases. The official case-fatality rate (CFR), which is deaths divided by CONFIRMED cases, of 6% is obv way too high. 2/n