Interesting thread but it makes an error I saw a lot of the Westminster lobby make in 2016 which was to underestimate grassroots skepticism of London elite circles not due to policy but how exclusive Cameron/Osborne were. Theresa May went to hundreds of constituencies.

https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1667314964585906179

Brexit was as much a revolt against Tories like Johnson - OE, London Mayor, "hip", a favorite of the "beautiful people", as against the EU and he needed to differentiate his brand. He succeeded at enormous cost. But either Osborne won or an anti-Cameroon defeated them

"Those who hope to supplant the neocons and liberal interventionists, to keep the empire alive by means of removing all sops to magic and superstition, are the most profoundly idealistic thinkers that America has yet to produce."

compactmag.com/article/the-tr… I agree there is a tension at the heart of the neo-realist project. It is, however, not a uniquely American one, which would imply Mearsheimer is right, but a universal one. AJP Taylor noted that every step towards Democracy in Imperial Germany before 1914 took it closer to war

Article reactions in my circle reveal less an ideological divide than a social one. Those in their 30s who are still single see this as a social justice issue. Those who married and have kids are almost without exception disturbed no matter how liberal nytimes.com/2023/01/22/us/… Millenials who are still single tend to immediately feel kinship with the hypothetical kids, reinforced, perhaps with residual resentment of their own parents at a midlife point that dosen't feel like half a life lived. Parents, well, there is no debate here in 98% of cases

A summary for those Americans trying to make sense of internal Conservative Party UK politics. It begins with the leadership race this summer. First and foremost the core candidates stood for different demographic factions as much as ideological ones Rishi Sunak represented much of the National party machine, the wider CCHQ campaign apparatus, the consultants, ad agencies and ex-SPADs who make the party run. That made him a "centrist" despite having backed Leave in 2016. He turned on Boris on their behalf as well as his own

We are reaching the point where the Ukrainian successes in the political war are risking interfering with the military one. Expectations have been raised sky high about the Ukrianians holding everywhere. They probably can't. Will likely lose east and probably Kyiv

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1498531577877381126

If there is not a political settlement in the near future that is. Absent that the Ukrainians and their allies need to prepare for the next phase which will be ensuring a Ukrainain army remains intact with a secure supply line to Poland/Romania. That means falling back westward

From reading Russian nationalist sources one thing I feel that is overlooked is the dynamics of immigrant politics in the West. Almost everyone who left Eastern Europe for NA/WE left to escape "Russians". Even re Nazis it dosent work with American Jews Vast majority of American Jews are descendants of the victims of Czarist antisemitism. The Jews who were victims of Nazi extermination were dead. The result is that the Nicholas II/White Guard Russian nationalist stuff offends everyone not already offended by Soviet images

Pretty much what I said their strategy would be two days ago if they were shifting from political to military objectives. Politically this is a sunk endeavor for now. Militarily they aren't pushing beyond Dnieper against organized opposition so need to win in the East if at all

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1498233549648187392

By politically sunk there is no way this operation is going to look good - to Ukrainians, to Russians, to anyone else - at its conclusion, whence it is. Even if it ends with Russians in Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Kiev Putin himself is almost certain not to be happy with it.

I am noticing in the last week is a appreciation that for all GWB's blunders, Bill Clinton may in terms of impact be the worst President since before WWII. The magnitude of things undone, paths not taken, frivolity in the 1990s is astounding. Gradual process but now in overdrive Colossal failure to use the peace dividend domestically to rebuild America creating a bitter and lost generation. Total mismanagement of Russia AND China when different paths existed. Asia/Latin America/Iraq/Israel/Iran too. Balkans- too late in Bosnia too early in Kosovo

Differences abound not least the Germans had the Soviet card in reserve. Had Poles been able to retreat to Carpatheans with access to Soviet supplies over the border while have been a problem, though not existential on its own. Bigger worry is the Southern front.f

https://twitter.com/wiphala_/status/1497328062534336513

For all the focus on Kyiv that is a political objective. Ukrainians have done well in defensive engagements but if they can't counterattack in the next 48hrs they will have to withdraw their forces from Donbass in the open on roads subject to air attack. That will be bad.