Two weeks ago I spent a couple of days in and near Jalalabad (Nangarhar province) to investigate a recent U.S. drone attack against the Islamic State in Afghanistan. The city is the most active area of the Islamic State this year and yet the atmosphere was lively and relaxed /1 Now we know that deceptive calm was just a break. Last ten days the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an unprecedented sequence of 20 attacks in broad daylight against the Taliban in Jalalabad /2

Ok, this is interesting. In April the Islamic State released a video of Baghdadi and his long beard half-dyed with red henna. Sounds funny, but that sight was important to understand a primary matter: how does he move undetected now that his territory is gone?

https://twitter.com/DanieleRaineri/status/1122904325599236096

Before the video there was a lot of speculation and vague info about how he traveled in a cheap car, well shaven, only with his driver, a bodyguard and false documents. That video was conclusive: nope, he wasn't going through checkpoints sporting that beard.

Waiting for confirmation, there is nothing certain at the moment: a "senior terrorist leader" who could be Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was allegedly killed in a raid of US Special Forces in Idlib province (Idlib province!!) IF CONFIRMED – BIG IF – Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was killed circa five kilometers from the Turkish border (near Barisha) in a territory in a territory under the control of groups hostile to him

Islamic State in Libya: six media releases since the start of the civil war near Tripoli on April 4, the first tagged "Barqah" and the others tagged "Fezzan". This is the area of operations for now The six media releases signaling the comeback of the Islamic State in Libya: raids on little towns and road ambushes starting in al Fuqaha on April 14, then moving near Sabha and insisting on Ghadduwah

This is rare: Islamic State announcing a * video * release by al Furqan – the oldest and most important media house of the Islamic State. All the recent releases by al Furqan were audio messages The latest video released by al Furqan was about the structure of the Caliphate – in mid July 2016, almost three years ago. We can merely speculate about this imminent release

Islamic State in Libya releases in January, February and March 2019: zero.
Since the start of Haftar's offensive to take Tripoli on April 4: three.
Of course, they are taking advantage of this new civil war in Libya. Here the gunmen of the Libyan Islamic State are targeting the vehicles of Haftar's forces south of Sebha – basically they sneaked into the war, harassing LNA southern routes in Fezzan not far from the Tamanhint base where a big fight between GNA and LNA occurred days ago

Now that the territory under the control of the Islamic State is nominally zero, let’s talk about how Abu Bakr al Baghdadi eludes the impressive security apparatus looking for him everywhere – comments most welcome as usual We are told that Abu Bakr al Baghdadi sleeps every night in a different place and that he travels inside a simple car with a trusted driver and a couple of other guys – all of them in modern clothes, no electronic devices. I’m not entirely persuaded by this version

French newspaper Libération gained access to the DGSI file (and quotes other sources) about Abu Loqman, one of the most important figures of the Islamic State. Wali of Raqqa (until the liberation) and allegedly killed in Hajin in April 2018

liberation.fr/planete/2019/0… Here the key points. Abu Loqman was wounded in the same targeted airstrike north of Aleppo that killed Abu Muhammad al Adnani in August 2016 – I find hard to process this big piece of info. They were touring together the frontline near al Bab

According to Reuters in 2017 the other “leading contender” to replace Al Baghdadi was Iyad al Obeidi aka Abu Saleh Haifa, “al sheykh al mujahid” (means: very important guy). Killed in West Mosul during the final stage of the battle for the city. Keeping it short. Here’s the bio We study such figures to understand the next line of leaders of the Islamic State. People like Abu Yahya al Iraqi and Abu Saleh Haifa are the backbone of the Islamic State 1) They joined terrorism before the foundation of the Islamic State of Iraq 2) They spent time in jail

Hyper specific thread about a leader of the Islamic State I’m reading the bio of Ayad al Jumaili aka Abu Yahya al Iraqi. In June 2017 Reuters wrote that Abu Yahya al Iraqi was one of the two potential successors of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi to lead the Islamic State. First of all: he is dead, as confirmed by the formula -تقبله الله-

Was Abu Bakr al Baghdadi still inside the Baghouz pocket till early January? A piece in the Guardian says so and quotes local sources and Kurdish commanders. Baghdadi allegedly spent six months there and then fled to the desert. Let’s give a look at the pieces we have I routinely ask people in places which once were under the control of Islamic State if they were aware of the presence or any movement of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and they invariably answer: never. Why did he expose himself in that narrow strip of land under constant surveillance?

I’m tweeting less because I’m in “birdwatching mode” since the Raqqa campaign. Can't help to think about this article published in August:

wsj.com/articles/islam… First of all see the discrepancy – it’s a warning. WSJ says the meeting with Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was in May 217

This article in Arabic says it was in July: wataniq.com/news?ID=28579

This witness says it was in August: chechensinsyria.com/?p=26129

You're probably reading a lot of articles first about the demise of the Islamic State and then about a possible comeback of Islamic State and yet you cannot imagine it from a practical point of view. Actually we've been already there, couple of times at least. This time is bigger Just imagine a thin structure formed by one thousand men or more scattered in the Levant, Turkey, Maghreb, the Gulf, Europe, AfPak and Southeast Asia. They are well shaven, run normal activities, have legit passports, bank accounts, clean criminal records

I’d start from this iconic picture, much recurrent in the propaganda of the Islamic State. It’s early July 2014, a convoy of armed men is approaching al Alam, a town on the Eastern Bank of the Tigris near Tikrit, in "Wilayat Salahuddin” Aboard the convoy sits the Wali of Salahuddin, Abu Nabil al Anbari. It’s one of his last Iraqi sorties, because a few weeks later Al Baghdadi will dispatch him to Libya as commander in chief under the new name of Abul Mughirah al Qahtani