David Rothschild Profile picture
Economist. Tweets reflect me only! Collects/analyzes: poll, market, social media/online data, to study: news, public opinion, adverts also @PredictWise
eDo Profile picture Mark Helms Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
22 Sep
Americans way *less* informed about the important aspects of the president & executive branch's policies due to the existence of the White House Press Corps. They focus US on palace intrigue, allowing all presidents to avoid scrutiny of their fitness & policy cc/ @AshleyRParker
For his entire presidency, Americans were subjected to details of the political ups & downs of ObamaCare, how it affected Obama & midterm elections: not until the Republicans were 1 vote from repealing it, did anyone bother to explain to US what the actual policy did for US.
No matter what Trump did, the White House Press Corps was there for him, to normalize the action. "Fun" to Compare @OKnox (former president of WHCA) & @atrupar twitter threads covering Trump's 3/29/20 "Press Conference"
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Thoughts on my Twitter conversations today w/ a few Republican strategists about COVID-19 & vaccine mandates (1) they are desperate to avoid topic ongoing death toll (and hospitalizations) & how more vaccines will ameliorate this horrible situation: they want to talk politics ...
Important here to emphasize: the Republicans are conceding that 1,000+ people are dying per day, that vaccine mandates will get people vaccinated and save lives, but they think that they can win the politics of the fight (2) Republicans acknowledge opposition is not that big ...
Republicans counting that like abortion & guns, the can create a bunch of one-issue (anti-vax) voters, that can overwhelm the vast majority of US that are pro-vax: fortunately pro-vax group is quite motivated right now & anti-vax group is already *very anti-Democratic* ...
Read 9 tweets
13 Sep
I have a tough time separating the love & respect NYC gets from media & politicians in 9/11 with the hatred & derision it gets from media & politicians for the other 364 day per year.
From the mocking delight that so many took in NYC's suffering & death in the spring of 2020, to Republican rally cry in the summer of 2020 to bankrupt NYC to general typecasting of NYC as a scary, dangerous place, when it is, in fact both safe & prosperous, funding the rest of US
2004 Republican convention was basically a big FU to NYC: hosted in a City that hated Bush, a reelection campaign built around using 9/11 to attack Iraq AND pushing a Constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage, mass protests were ignored & mocked by mainstream media.
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
Every #RoshHashanah I reflect on this one prayer: Avinu Malekeinu. This prayer creates a strong juxtaposition: we provide to G-d deep reflection & merciful prayer for ourselves while, at the same time, demanding of G-d action for injustice others suffered at no fault of their own
It is easy for us to reflect inward on our own faults, sins, things we wish we had done, and seek mercy for those trespasses. But what can we say about our neighbors, the innocent, who suffer from pestilence, war, famine, captivity, destruction, iniquity, religious persecution?
For those neighbors, whether they live down the block, or around the world, we demand action from Avinu Malkeinu. But, these two concepts merge, as my rabbi once told me: if we treat our neighbors as we would treat ourselves, then we would not need mercy & the hungry would be fed
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
We have a nostalgia for factory jobs with good pay, benefits, time-off, safety, but for most of history factory jobs sucked: low pay, no benefits, brutal schedule, dangerous. It is collective bargaining of unions that made these jobs great, not the work itself …
Now that the work has moved to service sector, healthcare, etc we need to bring the fight to these sectors, make the type of jobs that exist, with high demand for workers, great: good pay, benefits, time-off, safe …
Owners of capital have massive bargaining power over workers, they have a lot more information than the workers about the work & more flexibility about who works when, only when workers unite, to bargain collectively can they get their fair shake from the owners …
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
Unified pro-war, pro-Republican propaganda spewed by mainstream media over the last 2 weeks should terrify all of US.
America having two main groups of news media (1) Republican propaganda (2) Pro-war, Pro-corporation mainstream media, that dips into hardcore Pro-Republican propaganda to further pro-war & project false equivalency on US: terrible equilibrium for US.
Mainstream Media (2021) tries to spin miracle (popular) withdrawal from Afghanistan into biggest disaster in US history (2016) elects Trump w/ bad-faith attacks on Clinton's email server (2010-2016) drags down ObamaCare, helping to block Medicaid expansion & elect Republicans ...
Read 5 tweets
30 Aug
George W. Bush is one of the 5 worst presidents in US history: 2 failed wars, Katrina, Great Recession, Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage (failed).
Trump also in top 5 worst: Muslim ban (cruelty), support for white supremacist terrorist in Charlottesville & others, making US pay him to fly to his resorts (corruption), accepting support for Putin (disloyalty to US), selling our security for personal gain (authoritarianism) …
And, in his final year: complete failure to contain COVID-19 (incompetence), putting his son-in-law in charge (corruption), then orchestrating an insurrection against US when he lost re-election. Not recency bias or coincidence that last 2 Republicans both 2 of worst of all time.
Read 4 tweets
30 Aug
Every day mainstream media *chooses* what topics to cover & how to cover them: there are *very few* stories that mainstream media *needs* to cover on any day. Right now the mainstream media is choosing to make Afghanistan withdrawal the top story & choosing to make it a disaster.
Mainstream media could *choose* to frame withdrawal as massive success: 116,700 evacuated since 8/14 from war zone (when MSM demanded we could never get 50,000 out). Or, they could focus on US nearing 1,000 deaths/day from COVID-19.
When mainstream media does talk about COVID-19 they tend to frame it in terms of the political fight, who to blame & who will win. Instead, instead they could focus need for vaccines, need for cheap/plentiful testing, etc.
Read 4 tweets
25 Aug
Mainstream media's unified complete break from reality in pummeling President Biden for withdrawing our military from Afghanistan should *terrify* all of US.
They did this to US in 2016 with their bad faith obsession with Clinton's emails. They did this to US in 2010 trashing desperately necessary ObamaCare. They did this to US in 2002 creating the Iraq War and 2001 convincing US to nation-build in Afghanistan.
Mainstream media does not hold truth-to-power, they are the power, and they like war, low-taxes on the rich, workers without a saftey net (easier for rich to exploit).
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
Paper w/ @KonitzerTobias @_JenAllen @stephnie Howland @markusmobius @duncanjwatts "Comparing Estimates of News Consumption from Survey and Passively Collected Behavioral Data" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-ar… confirms & extends earlier results on over-reporting news consumption in surveys
Way more people report watching FNC & MSNBC in past week than ever watch in a month, roughly as many report FNC most used station as ever watch in a month, but MSNBC more realistic reporting of most used 2/9
Plausible that social desirability bias of over-reporting news consumption much more important for Republicans reporting FNC, than other non-politically aligned news consumption patterns 3/9
Read 9 tweets
21 Aug
Everyone attacking @JoshMandelOhio because he is encouraging people to interact w/ a bunch of people (w/ no mask!) while sick during horrible pandemic AND attacking another small business: but it speaks to how so many key priories of Republicans are terrible for working Americans
(1) Every other developed country offers both paid sick leave and healthcare for working families: it is not just the ethical thing to do in a wealthy nation, but it increases our health & productivity for people to stay home & get better when sick …
(2) As more work shifts to service jobs & healthcare we need further protections to make these jobs safe & rewarding: healthcare, sick/maternity leave, but also living wages, job protection, stable hours, safe working conditions. Factory jobs sucked until unionization …
Read 4 tweets
21 Aug
All criticism of President Biden’s Afghan withdrawal lacks concrete & reasonable options where Biden could have (1) withdrawal our military from Afghanistan (2) done something different that would have resulted in a better outcome for US (and our friends) …
Thus this criticism is really just a mix of pro-war propaganda (i.e., the critic is really just mad we are leaving after only 20 years) and pro-Republican propaganda (i.e., the critics attacks lack any substance, they are just meant to hurt Biden).
Taliban was holding back attacks in last year because Trump guaranteed full withdrawal (which Biden pushed back for additional preparation) AND Trump stopped our critical vetting of Afghan friends (and their families) & made no withdrawal plan …
Read 5 tweets
16 Aug
These last two days have shown the mainstream media at its worst: none of them are speaking truth to the (bipartisan) political & military & *media* power that made this 20 year fiasco happen.
If you are going to interview someone who started the Afghanistan War 20 years ago, ask them why we were national building rather than just destroying Al Qaeda, why we diverted resources to Iraq, how the Afghan Army was not ready after 20 years (and so many lives & so much money)
If someone has been lying to US for the last 20 years, your job as the mainstream media is not to make them feel better by letting them blame the person who finally pulled the plug after 20 years, but to press them on what went went wrong over the last 20 years.
Read 4 tweets
14 Aug
US back over 500 deaths per day from COVID-19 for first time since May 20 with 69,766 people in hospital. Hospitalizations & deaths are mainly unvaccinated adults in areas of high concentration of unvaccinated adults: completely preventable with free vaccine #MagaCovidWave
Trajectory of hospitalizations from COVID-19 is terrifying: it will taper off at some point in next 1 to 2 months as pockets of unvaccinated areas reach necessary level of herd immunity through illness, but so much suffering & death could have easily been avoided #MagaCovidWave
Over 1 in every 1,000 people in Jacksonville are in the hospital for COVID-19.
Read 4 tweets
10 Aug
@zeynep @chris_bail This tweet thread by @zeynep is a bit confused (1) our results are nuanced, but we show that with many single sessions AND direct links to videos on YouTube, there is a much lower upper-bound on algorithms possibly direct people to extreme content than many researchers assume 1/n
(2) Of course we would want actual recomendation data from YouTube, but tracking the actual, full pathway of 100,000's of users is much better than controlled experiments in understanding how people move through YouTube (3) Labelling extreme content is tricky 2/n
We have used the best available methods at the producer level, but are excited about research in labelling on the video and segment level: at this point that is not scalable. We have written extensively about news in search, social media, online, and off-line as well (TV!) 3/n
Read 5 tweets
9 Aug
Expect the trade-offs between living/working in Democratic & Republican states to become more stark in next few years, and high caliber workers are going to increasingly demand the saftey & services of Democratic states.
I lived in Austin for a year, I love Austin, and no one I know in Austin (especially those who moved from Democratic states) was calculating that if a pandemic hit the state government would block the local government from taking simple practical steps to keep themselves safe.
I feel very comfortable doing stuff around my community (in NY) with my family (including 2 unvaccinated small children) because I know the vaccination rates are high, and that people are encouraged to be responsible ...
Read 5 tweets
3 Aug
Paper w/ @homahmrd @Amir_Ghasemian @aaronclauset @markusmobius @duncanjwatts "Examining the consumption of radical content on YouTube" @PNASNews pnas.org/content/118/32… Most news consumption on @YouTube relatively mainstream, far-left tiny, far-right small, but anti-woke surging
For those of you unfamiliar, “anti-woke” content is defined in terms of its opposition to progressive intellectual & political agendas. It grew steadily on YouTube in last few years (still smaller than mainstream) 2/4
Yet, if you are concerned about people consuming extreme news content on YouTube, the algorithms are not an easy answer: we find no evidence that engagement with far-right & anti-woke content is caused by YouTube recommendations systematically 3/4
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
Mainstream media does not acknowledge *objective fact* Republicans intentionally discouraged their supporters to not take the vaccine (so they could blame President Biden when their supporters got sick & died) because thing they fear most is Republicans calling them “biased” …
Time mainstream media feels more heat for their hardcore pro-Republican bias of false equivalency, refusing to acknowledge the horrible things Republicans have done to US in order to pretend our institutions our sound, because their silence is literally killing US …
In 2009 Republicans got away w/ intentionally hurting our economic recovery under Obama (mainstream media silent), so they hurt health of their own constituents to attack ObamaCare, now they go after their constituents’ health & our economy: they assume MSM will stay complicit.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
Everyone who would comply with a mask mandate is already vaccinated.
Sure, vaccinated people have a slightly elevated chance of getting a much more mild form of COVID-19 from all of these anti-vaxxers, but that is not what is not hospitalizing & killing people, that is not what is allowing this terrible disease to mutate.
If you are vaccinated & live in a high risk area: you should wear a mask indoors, you may want to avoid being indoors, especially if you are in a high risk group. I am sorry, but your neighbors suck and their death wish is making your life worse.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
.@SocSciOne is incredibly exciting & important initiative to package & make available to qualified researchers secure & privacy focused data from private companies like @Facebook, so researchers can explore what is being produced, distributed, consumed on these platforms 1/8
In this paper misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/resear… w/ @_JenAllen @duncanjwatts @markusmobius we explore its 1st major data release, testing how key outcomes researchers want to test (eg fake news) change due to introduction of differential privacy & censoring to URLs w/ 100+ public shares 2/8
We find that censoring the data to 100+ public shares overestimates relative share of news clicked on Facebook by nearly 2x, fake news by 4x. Fake news URL, conditional on being consumed, are engineered to be shared and shared publicly, at much higher rates than other content 3/8
Read 9 tweets
22 Jul
Thought experiment: imagine Trump loses the 2024 election and a bunch of Trump states leave the Union to join him under the Trump flag, and this time we don't stop them. We know they will beg to come back shortly: Trumpland is currently subsidized by Democratic states ...
And, Trump Family would do what they always do: rob Trumpland of any of its remaining wealth, declare bankruptcy, walk away. So, knowing we have short window to correct institutional problem before Trumpland returns, what are our key priorities?
Suggested Amendment: elect president by popular vote, house size grows every 10 years to pop/500k with multi-member districts & single transferable voting rule, 18 year terms for supreme court (then back to federal judgeship), 100 senators elected by national proportional vote.
Read 4 tweets