I'd beware of analyses of the rural->metro population shift that are primarily framed as "Blue America growing and Red America shrinking." That's an oversimplification that can be pretty misleading about the political consequences of the changes that are underway. (1/5) Rural areas are shrinking, but at a slower pace than the rate at which they've become more Republican. Biden got >2,000,000 fewer rural votes than Obama did in '08; Trump '20 got >2,000,000 more votes than McCain. Rural Republicans aren't declining in number; rural Democrats are.

One thing that's starting to bother me about the debate over the CDC's revised mask guidance this week is that a lot of people are holding the CDC responsible for policy changes that are actually the responsibility of elected political leaders, not government scientists. (1/5) All the CDC actually did this week was announce that based on its interpretation of scientific evidence, fully vaccinated people are not in serious danger of either contracting or transmitting COVID in large numbers—so mask use for them is not necessary for disease mitigation.

My new #APSA2019 #apsa19 paper, "The Suburbanization of the Democratic Party, 1992–2018," touches on political geography, ideology, race, Congress, and the college-educated white vote, among other topics. A few main findings follow in the thread below:
dropbox.com/s/91d7hclw87ho… 1. The Democrats have become a more suburban party since the 1980s because they have become less rural, not because they've become less urban (figure below shows House elections, but pattern holds for presidency & Senate too):