An attempt to make some order out of the contradictory reports on a Lebanon ceasefire going into effect tonight:🧵 1-A ceasefire in Lebanon was Iran's idea. That being a tough pill to swallow doesn't make it any less factual. Look at the sequence of events:

03/09/26 : President Joseph Aoun calls for direct negotiations with Israel to achieve a full truce -- misreported as "peace" --; an end to Israeli land/air/sea attacks on Lebanon; urgent support for the Lebanese armed forces; Lebanese forces taking control of the recent tension areas and seizing weapons, including Hezbollah weapons and stores; then direct talks to implement those steps. presidency.gov.lb/posts/alreys-a…

03/09/26 -- Israel responds with disinterest, says Lebanon's initiative was "too late" and Jerusalem was "focused on eliminating Hezbollah." The Israelis also made clear at various points their objectives were: this war being part of a process leading to Hezbollah's demise, and the occupation of parts of south Lebanon for varying, but indefinite, periods of time. mako.co.il/news-military/…

03/06/26 -- Washington also shows disinterest. @USAMBTurkiye is quoted in Axios saying: Stop with the bullsh*t” on disarming Hezbollah, or there was nothing to discuss; “If it’s not real action about Hezbollah’s weapons, there’s no point.” axios.com/2026/03/09/leb…

Nothing changes on the Lebanese domestic scene in the intervening period:
1) Hezbollah did not relent from fighting, and in fact became more defiant, even threatening to force Beirut to rescind its March 2, 2026 decision proscribing Hezbollah's military activities,
2) The Lebanese State has not undertaken a single action to concretely curtail Hezbollah's activities,
3) LAF refuses to implement the March 2 order x.com/LebarmyOfficia…
4) Beirut couldn't even successfully expel Iran's ambassador-designate because of pressure from Hezbollah/Amal, a failure for which the Israeli MFA's official account has been (unprofessionally, in my opinion) trolling Lebanon. As late as March 30: x.com/IsraelMFA/stat…
5) Lebanon is still afraid enough of Hezbollah being able to ignite a civil war that @nawafsalam had to cancel his Tuesday trip to Washington "in light of current domestic conditions: -- namely, growing sectarian friction and tension. x.com/nawafsalam/sta…

Then, suddenly, on April 9, Bibi pulls an about-face and says "In light of Lebanon's repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, [he] instructed...open[ing] direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible," while nodding to Nawaf Salam's call that day to demilitarize Beirut -- another unimplemented decision. embassies.gov.il/multilateral-o…

Lebanese Deputy PM @TarekMitri to @ALJADEEDNEWS: Lebanon insists on a truce to facilitate negotiations and there will be no negotiation under fire.

محليات/568442/نائب-رئيس-الحكومة-طارق-متري-لـالجديد-لبنان-مصرّ-على-هدنة-تسمح-بالتفاوض aljadeed.tv/news/ Lebanese Deputy PM @TarekMitri to @ALJADEEDNEWS: We learned of negotiations when @Netanyahu announced his position

.@EylonALevy and @Aizenberg55 are making the right point. Al Manar isn't just a run-of-the-mill TV station., and Ali Shuaib wasn't a normal journalist whose non-combatant status is clear.

But the evidence they're relying upon to prove it is insufficient to demonstrate their claim. Because, as Alex correctly notes, no, the mere presence of Hezbollah flags at a funeral or draped on a coffin isn't dispositive. Hezbollah has occasionally given civilians such honors.  See, for example, Fatima Al Siblani, killed in an 02/26/26 Israeli airstrike in Beit Msheik Farms, west of Baalbek.

nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/news/415913/

longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/…

HOWEVER 🧵: 1- Al Manar is not merely a "pro-Hezbollah outlet," any more than Inspire Magazine is "a pro-Al Qaeda outlet" or Dabiq, Al Tawheed, or Al Bayan were "pro-ISIS outlets." Al Manar is Hezbollah's main and direct TV station, owned and controlled by the group, even though the control structure is layered. The legally visible shell company is Lebanese Communication/Media Group, which remains identified as the parent company by Al Manar's site in the footer (see attached photo).

It's actually not so clear that the Israeli strike in Doha is illegal:
-Hamas committed an armed attack against Israel
-Qatar is knowingly harboring Hamas, is unlikely to take any action against them
-The attack targeted Hamas, not Qatar

A thread on int'l law and the strike:

https://twitter.com/Raminho/status/1965474303303983272

International law, particularly as it has developed in the shadow of the UN Charter, is primarily concerned with relations between States. As a result, only States could commit an “armed attack,” which, given the purpose of the Charter, makes sense at face value. Nevertheless, international law did not require that the unlawful use of force be committed directly by the State itself.

In the Nicaragua case, the ICJ relied on customary international law reflected in Article 3(g) of General Assembly Resolution 3314, determined that either 1) the “sending” by a state of an armed group “to carry out acts of armed force of such gravity as to amount to” an armed attack 2) “or its [i.e. the State’s] substantial involvement therein” as an armed attack by the sending State itself. The Court noted that, “If such an operation, because of its scale and effects, would have been classified as an armed attack rather than as mere frontier incident had it been carried out by regular armed forces,” then it would be deemed an “armed attack” for the purposes of Article 51, by the State itself – which opens itself up to an array of situationally appropriate consequences if it either orders a non-State actor to carry out armed actions crossing a minimum threshold of violence against another State, or it is somehow “substantially involved” in the act itself.

Interview of Ahmad al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, w @SyriaTV, in which he addresses Israel's ongoing strikes in Syria. I've tried to find the full video, to provide a transcription, to no avail. The full text of his relevant comments from the website's non-verbatim summary of the interview below:
"Al-Sharaa told Syria Television that Israel's excuses had become weak and do not justify its recent violations [of Syrian sovereignty], noting that the Israelis have violated the rules of engagement in Syria in a very clear manner, which threatens to ignite an unjustified escalation in the region.

Al-Sharaa stressed that the situation of Syrians [lit. the Syrian condition] is exhausted after years of war and conflict and does not permit entering new wars. He stressed that the priority at this stage [emphasis own] is reconstruction and stabilization, and not sliding into conflicts that may lead to further destruction.

Al-Sharaa called on the international community to urgently intervene and assume its responsibilities regarding this escalation, stressing the importance of containing the situation in the region and respecting Syrian sovereignty. He also stressed that diplomatic solutions are the only means to guarantee safety and stability, not ill-considered military adventures."

syria.tv/%D8%AE%D8%A7%D… See here also by @Syriatvnews reporter @Abu_Orwa91. So, what happens when Syria's state is no longer "fragile?"

https://x.com/Abu_Orwa91/status/1867944594488398209

Hezbollah Sec.Gen Naim Qassem's speech begins. So far, he's been eulogizing Hezbollah's media official Mohammad Afif and his companions who died alongside him.

https://twitter.com/DavidADaoud/status/1859233980400161168

Naim Qassem threatens to strike "heart of Tel Aviv" for recent Israeli strikes inside Beirut, including Afif's killing

Some recent positions taken by @walidjoumblatt on Hezbollah -- Thread 1-May 7, 2022: Walid Joumblatt describes the government's decision to take action against Hezbollah in May of 2008 as a mistake, says both he and Hassan Nasrallah erred and "fell in a trap" created by outsiders. Describes Wafic Shuqeir as his "friend."

Syrian State TV: the Israeli airstrike hit a building in Al-Mazzeh neighborhood I. Damascus t.me/ORTAS_News/230…

https://twitter.com/davidadaoud/status/1774802794135887992

The Israeli strike in Damascus' Al-Mazzeh neighborhood hit a building near the Iranian embassy. Footage:

Hezbollah Sec.Gen Hassan Nasrallah's speech is live now almanar.com.lb/live/
Nasrallah: On the day of the wounded of the Resistance, we have added new wounded men and women to their ranks because of the open front with Israel since 10/8/23, and they are our responsibility to take care of