THREAD: Something interesting this way comes in the new US intelligence community annual threat assessment testimony, as briefed to the Senate today.

It’s about Russia. And nukes. And things left unsaid in the submitted text.

Here we go:


1/9c-span.org/video/?534027-… First of all, if you’re unfamiliar with the long tradition of unclassified worldwide threat briefings to Congress, catch up with this podcast episode I hosted 4+ years ago with Michael Hayden, Jim Clapper, and Andrew McCabe.

Deep experience here:


2/9lawfaremedia.org/article/lawfar…

THREAD: Speculation has started in earnest about what will happen this year to the tradition of classified intelligence briefings for the major party presidential candidates.

And a lot of what’s being said is wrong, or at least incomplete.

Here’s ground truth —>

1/12 Major-party POTUS candidates have been offered intel briefings during the campaign since 1952.

(Not to be confused with the heavy intel support presidents-elect get—including, since the President’s Daily Brief began in the mid 1960s, a copy of the outgoing POTUS’s PDB.)

2/12

THREAD: Tonight in Fredericton, New Brunswick, at a public event about US presidents and intelligence, I got a question I hadn’t heard in hundreds of engagements on the topic:

“Who are the oddest people to ever show up in a PDB briefing?”

Buckle up. Strange things ahead.

1/9 Usually, for more than half a century, the President’s Daily Brief goes only to POTUS and a close circle of senior national security officials—like vice presidents, national security advisors, secretaries of state and defense, and folks one step removed.

Usually.

2/9

THREAD: My quick reactions to the U.S. intelligence community’s Annual Threat Testimony, released and briefed to the Senate Intelligence Committee today.

Some surprises, and some disappointments. Let’s go—

1/13 First, appreciate that this annual testimony from intel leaders has a rich history—described in this 2020 episode of the Lawfare Podcast that I hosted with former DNI Jim Clapper, former DCIA and DirNSA @GenMhayden, and former DD/FBI Andy McCabe:

2/13
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

THREAD: As each year ends, I look back at the books I’ve read/re-read or listened to across 12 months.

I’ve read a lot this year—and thought I’d share my list in categories, alphabetically by author within each.

I recommend every one of these books and thank all authors.

1/12 Books I read in 2022 (history, part 1):

Lincoln and the Fight for Peace by @JohnAvlon

SPQR by @wmarybeard

Grant by Ron Chernow

Washington by Ron Chernow

The Cabinet by @lmchervinsky

Behold, America by @sarahchurchwell

The Wrath To Come by @sarahchurchwell

2/12

Hi. It’s the President’s Daily Brief guy again.

I’m here to explain how Mark Meadows’s newly reported remark about presidents and the PDB is woefully wrong—and reveals why he never should’ve been chief of staff in the first place.

Grab a drink. Let’s take a PDB journey.

1/13 First, the remark. In her new book “Confidence Man,” @maggieNYT writes that during the transition Mark Meadows asked Ron Klein, “How many days a week is Vice President Biden gonna want this daily brief?”

Klain was "dumbstruck by the question.”

2/13
penguinrandomhouse.com/books/668293/c…

Hey, everyone hyperventilating about #EmptyFolders—

Slow down. Breathe.

Yes, the inventory lists empty folders with “CLASSIFIED” banners or marked "Return to Staff Secretary/Military Aide.”

This almost certainly doesn’t mean what you think.

Here’s a sanity check.

1/6 Classified documents, and most unclassified docs that are nevertheless sensitive, are usually carried between offices in places like the White House *in folders*.

Why? In large part, to keep prying eyes (or enterprising press photographers) from seeing them during transit.

2/6

THREAD: Intelligence and the presidency, a reading list.

Some students in my just-completed intel and the presidency graduate seminar urged me to share its core content with a wider audience.

You miss the discussions, sure—but here are my main texts and other sources.

1/16 The first book: “For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency From Washington to Bush.”

It ends 30 years ago, but Christopher Andrew’s book is the best single history of intel and presidents up until that point.

harpercollins.com/products/for-t…

2/16

THREAD: A wealth of new information about the intelligence briefings for Donald Trump and those around him as a presidential candidate in 2016, as president-elect in 2016-17, and as president has just hit the CIA’s public website.

Here are the most newsworthy details:

1/16 Context: The info is in a new chapter of John Helgerson’s book GETTING TO KNOW THE PRESIDENT—a useful source for my book THE PRESIDENT’S BOOK OF SECRETS—written for the CIA’s Center for the Study of Intelligence.

It’s on the CIA website here:
cia.gov/static/9c2a893…

2/16

THREAD: 20 years ago today, the best known daily intelligence item in history—the article "Bin Laden is Determined to Strike"—appeared in George W. Bush’s President’s Daily Brief.

Here’s the story of its creation, based on my interviews with its author and intel leaders:

1/12 During the summer of 2001, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet was telling everyone who would listen that “the system was blinking red.”

The CIA-based Counterterrorist Center (CTC) had been warning for months that al-Qaida seemed primed for a major attack.

2/12

THREAD: Don Rumsfeld, who has died at 88, played many important roles during his long career.

Among the fascinating but lesser known of those roles: his contact points with the President’s Daily Brief—in two administrations, 25 years apart.

Here are just a few stories.

1/13 Rumsfeld first came across the PDB as Gerald Ford’s chief of staff early in Ford’s brief presidency.

He was the one who informed National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft that Ford, after one year on the job, no longer needed daily in-person briefings from a CIA officer.

2/13

THREAD: It’s time to bring the *facts* about vice presidents and the President’s Daily Brief.

No spin—just the actual history.

And some pictures.

1/14 The President’s Daily Brief (PDB) was created by the CIA in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson, building on an earlier daily product designed for John Kennedy: the President’s Intelligence Checklist (PICL).

As JFK’s vice president, LBJ had *not* been allowed to see the PICL.

2/14

THREAD: How did we get into this Trump-driven crisis?

Less than 10 months ago, the Senate could have removed him from office. Fifty-two senators have some explaining to do.

Here’s one:

Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee decided to leave Trump in the presidency.

1/52 How did we get into this Trump-driven crisis?

Less than 10 months ago, the Senate could have removed him from office. Fifty-two senators have some explaining to do.

Here’s another one:

Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming decided to leave Trump in the presidency.

2/52

THREAD: If Trump, as reported, both doesn’t actually read the President’s Daily Brief and sometimes loses patience for the oral briefings he gets on it 2-3 times a week, how unusual would this be?

Quite.

First, a reminder of why it’s an issue now.

1/16
nytimes.com/2020/06/27/us/… Here’s some history:

The PDB was founded on the President’s Intelligence Checklist, created for John Kennedy in 1961.

Kennedy didn’t have Intelligence Community (IC) briefers discuss it with him, but he usually read it daily. When busy, he caught up on it every few days.

2/16

Hi. It’s the President’s Daily Brief guy.

Let’s look at the logic and the implications of the claim that neither Trump nor Pence were briefed on the intelligence assessment that Russia offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants to kill US/coalition troops in Afghanistan.

1/10

https://twitter.com/joshnbcnews/status/1276981842026082307

First, read the NYT article by @charlie_savage, @EricSchmittNYT, and @mschwirtz, with details about the reported Russian military intel unit behind this, the high-level USG discussions about responses, and the White House not authorizing any of them.

2/10
nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/…

THREAD: President Trump reportedly doesn’t read the President’s Daily Brief and sometimes loses patience even for the oral briefings he gets on it only 2-3 times each week.

How unusual is this?

First, tonight’s @gregpmiller and @nakashimae article:

1/16
washingtonpost.com/national-secur… Here’s the history:

The PDB was founded on the President’s Intelligence Checklist, created for John Kennedy in 1961.

Kennedy usually read it daily. When particularly busy, he caught up on it every few days. But he never had a CIA briefer talk through it with him.

2/16

THREAD: Inspired by others, each day I’ll tweet two of the books that I recommend on specific topics. Mostly national security, politics, intelligence, history, and world affairs, but with some twists thrown in. Today’s topic: How the Cold War ended.

“The United States and the End of the Cold War” by John Lewis Gaddis

“The End of the Cold War, 1985-1991” by Robert Service

Today my son asked me why I hadn’t yet watched the Lord of the Rings trilogy with him. I simply replied, “I don’t take responsibility at all.” Today my son asked me why I slept in this morning after I’d suggested that I wouldn’t. I simply replied, “I don’t take responsibility at all.”

A thread on intelligence, the risk of politicization, and leadership of the US intel community.

First, read this @NatashaBertrand article describing the concern among many former intel officers about the nomination of Rep. John Ratcliffe.

1/14
politico.com/news/2020/03/0… “Anyone who does not come with extensive intelligence experience,” I said in the article about incoming intel leaders, “is automatically and quickly viewed as a threat because of the risk of the politicization of intelligence.”

Let me explain:

2/14
politico.com/news/2020/03/0…

THREAD: How do the experiences of new acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell compare to those of the five former confirmed DNIs?

Let’s take a quick look:

1/7 John Negroponte had four decades in the Foreign Service, including as assistant secretary of state and ambassador to the UN and to several countries. He served as a deputy national security adviser to Reagan, often briefing the president on the President’s Daily Brief.

2/7

A thread on Section Four of the 25th amendment to the US Constitution—adopted on this day in 1967, in part to provide a mechanism for declaring a president unable when he cannot or will not do so himself:

1/8 Wilson’s incapacity during much of his 2nd term, Eisenhower’s health crises, and Kennedy’s assassination—which promoted many in Washington to wonder about how LBJ would have assumed presidential duties if JFK had been left comatose instead of dead—had pushed Congress to act.

2/8