Davide Oneglia Profile picture
Macroeconomist @TS_Lombard, bookworm and gourmet (and glutton). Stubbornly trying to make sense of data before speaking. RT=interesting
p rehmer Profile picture 1 subscribed
Mar 6 9 tweets 3 min read
EU “deindustrialization” makes headlines.

High energy costs, China’s rivalry and rising protectionism are strong headwinds.

But structural factors cannot fully explain the ongoing industrial recession.

What about ECB-induced domestic demand suppression and housing collapse? 1/ Image First, the fall in German and EA intermediate goods orders (most relevant for energy-intensive output), has been steeper than for other foreign orders. And it has continued despite the drop in energy/input costs, and easing supply bottlenecks.

Second, EA housing collapsed. 2/ Image
Jun 19, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read
Glad this thread gave people some food for thoughts and an out-of-consensus view on Euro Area long-term growth and assets.

But what about the *short-term* macro view (say, 1 year)?

Spoiler: stagnation writ large. New chart-heavy🧵1/
The EA heads for cyclical stagnation: fade ultra-bears talking about rising risks of “deep recession”, but dropping industrial orders and retail sales since March simply confirm EA underlying growth weaknesses 2/ Image
Jun 13, 2023 16 tweets 5 min read
Confused about Euro Area's long-term macro? Overwhelmed by negative consensus and headlines? Well, it's time to consider the long-term bull case for Europe. Chart-heavy 🧵 1/ Image No doubt, the old export-led EA growth model is dead. The EA is losing competitiveness. First, China is turning from key export market into industrial rival. A big problem for overexposed EA economies and firms 2/ Image
Apr 21, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
With the bank turmoil of the past weeks investors have reawakened to credit risk. So far, banks’ exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has attracted most of the attention. But CRE is just one example of rate-sensitive, illiquid, opaque asset class. Little thread 1/ Image In EU, banks’ credit risk via CRE concentrates in the Nordics and Central Europe. Sweden tops the table, but, in the EZ, fixed-rate mortgages make Germany, the Netherlands and France less exposed (although more exposed in terms of loan profitability!) than Austria and Finland 2/ ImageImage
Jun 14, 2019 20 tweets 9 min read
This (quite long) thread is #my2cents on the output gap campaign #CANOO started by @RobinBrooksIIF and supported, among many others, by @alan_tooze and @MESandbu . Pls read it till the end. I don't want to be polemic. I'm just looking for answers (1/x)

In EU this is a vital *political* debate. Given the well-known output gap measurement issues especially in real-time, references to 'cyclically-adjusted' fiscal balances in budgetary rules at EU level and in member states are a serious problem (2/x)