$VFS - I love the insanity of this. $220B market cap Vietnamese EV maker.

Clearly a SPAC with limited float is gonna yield some interesting outcomes. But $VFS is like beyond insanity.

A Thread: 🧵 $VFS was brought public via a SPAC. But Technically the SPAC actually just bought a Cayman Islands subsidiary of VinFast called “Nuevo Tech Limited”

“the company surviving the merger as a whole owned subsidiary of VinFast”.

Mostly it’s a technicality from what I can gather due to the fact Vinfast is a Singapore company and the SPAC was not able to directly purchase them, but not the best situation

$ROKU a wildly misunderstood company.

It’s a TV OS with 60m user (ROKU Stick/ ROKU TVs)
It’s a AVOD Channel (The Roku Channel)
It’s a DSP (OneView)
It’s a TV wall garden, the only one.

It’s a beast, it’s position in streaming TV is unmatched. $ROKU ARPU growth is on a steady trajectory to double in the next few years. First from the growth in Programatic ads, then from the ad spend shift to $ROKU owned content.

Image from this great thread from @ProcedoCap (good follow)

https://twitter.com/ProcedoCap/status/1491846686477410304

Top Picks for 2022: 5 Long / 5ish Shorts $THRY - THRY is one of my favorite types of investments, a small fast growing high margin business (SMB Software) inside a large melting icecube (Yellowpages). Hard to value at first, but as the fast growing portion grows the valuation becomes straight forward & multiple improves

How to build an NFT bubble portfolio with minimal risk of loss.

This for people with some Crypto already. Let’s say you have 10 ETH in your account that is just sitting doing nothing. This is how you can build an NFT portfolio worth millions. 1) Buy an NFT for .1 ETH from one Ethereum wallet

2) Buy that same NFT for 9.9 ETH from another wallet. It now has a “value” or “sales history” on OpenSea of 9.9 ETH, but you paid yourself the 9.9 ETH.

3) Resell it for 12 ETH (or 7 or 5 ETH) on OpenSea doesn’t matter.

My $ETSY Long Thesis:

▪️ Covid pulled forward significant demand
▪️ High Margin stable and growing core Etsy Platform
▪️ House of Brands expands TAM at reasonable valuation due to synergistic back office cost sharing
▪️ Cheap on a go forward basis 33x F EV/EBITDA Etsy is an eCommerce website that allows makers of custom goods to easily transact on the internet without setting up their own website. Etsy is a niche marketplace for quality handmade products in categories like Home Furnishing, Apparel, Jewelry, and Craft Supplies.

$TWTR Long Thesis:

-Twitter owns the Social Graph
-Can bring successful 3rd party products into platform and extract value from them (example Twitter Spaces -> Clubhouse)
-Elliot Management is pushing for Monetization
-Platform is ready to evolve after many years of development Twitter has been a lackluster investment for many years since it came public in 2013. For many years twitter has been reluctant to monetize their social graph, in part fearing they would alienate some of their users.

Coinbase is not worth $100B and if you buy them here you are in for a wake up call with a markdown.

A Thread: 👇 Coinbase reported earnings for Q1

$750m Net Income on $1.8B of revenue, not bad. But what was Coinbase App (Retail) vs Coinbase Pro Exchange (Institution) ?

Here: investor.coinbase.com/news/news-deta…

Thread on the good things that have come from WSBs yolos:

Kid helps his mom pay for his sisters Lyme Disease treatment: Husband supporting his wife who was just diagnosed with MS.

The funny thing about short squeezes, is they only work for a very short period of time (usually about 2 weeks). Its like a ticking timebomb on all these names....

Gonna be a fun ride down. Here is a list of shorts that have 50-75% downside once all this De-Grossing / WSB Pumping passes:

$NKLA - Still a Piece of Crap
$PEN - Still pending issues with Devices
$GSX - Was a big Melvin Cap Short, still a Fraud
$AAPN - Low Growth, Low Moat
$BYND - Tough Q4 Coming

My Top Picks for 2021: 5 Longs and 5 Shorts: $SEAC: 2020 saw the stock drop 67% on bad Framework deal closure numbers and limited revenue growth. With the release of their Video App and Ad Insertion Model in Q3/Q4 of this year, the dynamics will shift back to growth as they execute on the product diversification strategy

Finance / Investing Insights that I have Learned in the last 7 years on Fintwit: 1) In investing there is always a soup of the day. You should always ask what it is but never order it.

$CVNA Thread on Financing Sales:

$CVNA could easily be using their relationship with DriveTime to offload their Financing products at Premium prices and their Financing Margins improved bc they started securitizing their own loans in 2019 and have since plateaued 1) Before we get into this, you need to understand:

*CVNA CEO's dad is Ernest Garcia II, he owns and runs DriveTime & owns 38% of CVNA
*CVNA was originally a subsidiary of DriveTime prior to a spin-out and IPO
*CVNA is located next door to DriveTime
*DriveTime is Private

$TPB Long Thesis Thread:

Turning Point Brands is an extremely well run Other Tobacco Products (OTP) Company that focuses on non-cigerette tobacco products. They focus on high margin OTP products.

Several attractive dynamics will drive significant gains over the next decade. Long Thesis Highlights:
•PMTA regulation will force small OTP players out of business or to sell to larger players like TPB
•Zig Zag has a huge growth runway
•Vape volumes not materially impacted by Vapegate
•Huge opp in CBD and Cannabis
•Strong Mangement / Cap Allocation

$CVNA Updated Data. When you dig into the numbers you will see things look very bad for the company in terms of growth prospects and unit margins. 1) Here is the QoQ and YoY Data and Trends.

-Declining GP Margin is not a new trend it is clearly an issue for the company that started in Q3-2019.
-Declining GP in total is a new trend this quarter.
-Even more surprising is Revenue is now declining, on a QoQ basis.

Within a portfolio, thinking about optionality and opportunity is important. There are ways to maximize your portfolio optionality/opportunity without paying for it.

1) Option Spreads
2) Closing a position
3) Cash / Margin
4) Selling Puts instead of using limits to buy 1) Option Spreads: Instead of buying a put or call outright, you can buy an option spread (buy a near strike option & sell a further out option)

This creates optionality as if the underlying moves against you, you can close the far out strike you sold, and keep the near strike

$CVNA is in some serious Trouble - Thread. 1) Unit sales growth slowed down significantly in Q3 which is usually a solid Q for auto sales. QoQ Sales were up only 5.5% or 23.8% annualised.

Advice to my 21 yr old self:

1) Take big risks in your 20s with your career and investments, swing for the fences. If you connect on a big swing it could materially change your life trajectory, and if you miss you still will likely learn more than not swinging at all. Advice to my 21 yr old self:

2) No one knows anything. No one has it all figured out, no one is well trained or infallible. Most people are just faking it until they make it. Don’t think too highly of people just bc they are older, have more experience, or claim to be an expert

Tweetstorm about Global Warming, or alternatively Human Induced Carbon Cycle Imbalance.

It is a correctable human problem with a realistic human solution that should be pursued, discussed, and most importantly heavy funded.

Note: I’m not a scientist but rather an enthusiast 1) What we are talking about is the carbon cycle. “Global warming” is a carbon cycle imbalance as compared to our recent historical norms.

$ROKU Long Thesis in a Thread:

Roku has a unique position in the Streaming or Connected TV (CTV) market. Roku at its core is an operating system for TVs or “platform” that allows average people an easily usable TV interface to access all of their streaming content. 1) Roku might work now, but is it going to be around in 5 years?

Through partnerships with TV manufacturers Roku is embedding their OS in 25% of TVs. Why?

Because it’s cheaper for manufacturers than developing their own OS.