🧵 Ukraine at a Strategic Crossroad: Doctrine Shifts That May Define 2026

1. Introduction – Ukraine’s Last Strategic Options
In our previous Force Capability Index assessment, we projected a collapse of Ukraine’s military balance within 18 months without major doctrinal change.
In light of the slow pace of negociations, let us look at military scenario alternatives.

This thread examines 3 radical strategic models that could shape the outcome by the end of 2026. None offers a guarantee of victory, yet each provides a distinct framework for understanding the remaining operational possibilities. The projected FCI scores in 18 months are as follows:

- Elastic Defense = 45;
- Dnipro Line and Guerrilla War = 38;
- High Tech Active Defense=  52.

#UkraineRussiaWar️️ #StrategicScenarios #Military

2. Scenario One – Elastic Defense

Elastic Defense envisions a mobile, flexible posture, trading ground to stretch enemy lines, striking flanks, and using terrain to buy time. It recalls the Finnish Winter War of 1939/1940, where Finland delayed the Soviet advance through maneuver, ambush, and decentralised resistance.

However, just as Finland could not reverse territorial losses, Ukraine under this approach would merely postpone defeat without regaining ground. The concept demands over one 1000 operational armored fighting vehicles, veteran brigades to execute the complex manœuvres required, sustained fuel and repair cycles, and integrated intelligence, surveillance, and electronic warfare support.

Ukraine’s current equipment readiness stands below 45%,  with insufficient mobility remaining for such an approach facing the rapidly expanding Russian drone capabilities.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces are exhibiting signs of structural degradation. Thread. 🧵
The Force Capability Index (FCI)—a strategic model for evaluating force sustainability—scores Ukraine at 53.0 as of June 2025. Russia stands at 68.2. Without doctrinal change, #collapse is projected within 12 to 18 months.
“War is not destruction—it is dislocation.” – A.A. #Svechin
1/13
#UkraineRussiaWar #MilitaryStrategy #MilitaryAnalysis #ForceCapabilityIndex
Note: this is a simplified, customized index
The FCI is a structural assessment used by general staffs to determine when a force is approaching operational exhaustion.
It evaluates five weighted domains:
- Manpower & Morale
- Equipment Readiness
- Firepower & ISR
- Operational Flexibility
- Frontline Sustainability

Scoring bands:
- 80–100: Sustainable
- 60–79: Strained
- 40–59: Degraded
- 20–39: Unstable
- <20: Collapsing

Ukraine’s composite FCI score of 53.0 sits squarely in the degraded zone. Without intervention, collapse is projected by Q3 2026:
- Q4 2025: 48.9
- Q1 2026: 45.6
- Q2 2026: 42.1
- Q3 2026: 38.6 → collapse threshold
Collapse: inability to reinforce 30–40% of the frontline.
2/13

🧵Modeling Russia’s 2025 Offensive: Sieges Before Snowfall
🇷🇺has gained 1,585 km² so far in 2025. Will it seize Donbas, or surround its key cities?
This thread models 3 advance scenarios for the summer-fall campaign and how the front may set for a winter of sieges and attritional warfare.
#UkraineWar #MilitaryOutlook
1/9
Maps @Pouletvolant3 & DeepstateUA To realize the "supposed" plan unveiled by 🇺🇦 Presidential Office, 🇷🇺 would have to:
• Seize the remaining 7,540 km² of Donetsk
• Take the last 171 km² of Luhansk
• Establish a 20 km deep buffer from Sumy to Oskil (~9,819 km²)
➤ Total strategic requirement: 17,530 km²
#Donbass #Sumy
2/9

Russia is managing attrition. Ukraine is not.
In 2022, Russia’s loss ratio was 3.2 to 1. In 2025, it is projected to fall to 1.4 to 1. Mechanized losses are approaching parity. This shift in battlefield attrition is reshaping the war’s trajectory, yet remains underdiscussed. A thread 🧵
1/8
#UkraineWar #OSINT #Attrition 🇺🇦is now taking its highest equipment losses per km2 defended. In 2024, losses averaged 0.75 per km² lost. In 2025, that figure has risen to 1.3. Logistics, rotations, reinforcements are increasingly exposed. This trend is cumulative and accelerating.
2/8
#OperationalRisk #ForceAttrition

The Telegraph’s article on Russia’s “triple chokehold” offers a polished tactical view but lacks strategic framing. It misrepresents Russian forces and doctrine. The chokeholds reflect the Gerasimov Doctrine evolution: permanent, industrial, attritional warfare.
A 🧵for context.
#UkraineWar #MilitaryStrategy

(1/11)telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… Russia’s approach is not brute force—it is an adaptive strategy I call "industrialized asymmetry":
leveraging mass-produced, low-cost systems (FPV drones, glide bombs, light mounted infantry) to disrupt and degrade conventional forces through sustained pressure. A doctrine evolution for scale ⬇️

(2/11)

https://x.com/Delwin655059/status/1923646582572057096

This is not just Putin’s war. While he sets the aim, Gerasimov shaped the strategy—following a doctrine for enduring struggle.
This thread is an analytical breakdown, not endorsement—meant to decode how the #GerasimovDoctrine became Russia’s blueprint for a war without end.
#UkraineWar #Thread
1/16 Often overlooked, #Gerasimov is the strategic mastermind behind Russia’s conduct of war.
Since 2013, he has articulated a doctrine where modern conflict blurs the line between peace and war, combining military, political, cyber, economic, and informational tools. His framework rests on five ideas:
▶️War and peace are continuous
▶️All domains are battlefield
▶️Strike threats early
▶️Conflict is permanent
▶️Every war must adapt to its context #HybridWarfare #MilitaryDoctrine
2/16