Thought Leader, The Legacy Discussion Circle - a political discussion group. Member (not spokesperson) Peoples Democratic Party. Husband, Father, Brother.
45 added to My Authors
Jun 7 • 61 tweets • 11 min read
Tambuwal stepping down for Atiku was a pivotal moment in the outcome of the 2023 race - a circle come round from 29 years ago when Atiku Abubakar had to step down for MKO Abiola.
In view of 2023, it's important to put the entire saga in proper nuanced and detailed perspective.
IBB's stop and start transition programme had seen LGA elections held with zero parties - everyone contested on their own strength.
For the next phase of elections, NEC asked for political associations to register and 30 groups picked up forms but only 13 submitted back to NEC.
Jun 6 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
The Being we call God is Supreme in His ability to see beyond the present and dispense Justice in a way that even our human senses cannot comprehend.
As humans, our sense of Justice is entirely flawed and only few ever attain the godlike sense of Justice, far beyond vengeance.
The idea of retributive justice is equal punishment to those we perceive have wronged us - a sense of Justice that seeks some satisfaction from the anguish of those we perceive as having caused us pain.
We hope they suffer and feel all we felt, their pain to satiate ours.
May 20 • 48 tweets • 9 min read
In terms of understanding the Nigerian polity, Obasanjo was a master. It is known in political circles that he had a one-term agreement with those who fetched him straight from prison to power; breached it, but managed to defeat them in 2023:
How did he do it?
OBJ had an uncanny ability to understand Nigeria not just as different parts but also as a whole, he could seemingly mentally zoom in and zoom out, work on parts in isolation at some point, espouse national values to the whole at other points but eyes always fixed on the goal.
May 18 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
With the glaring failure of APC in power since 2015, PDP should overrun the ruling party quite easily in 2023 but PDP's biggest problem is the current cynicism in the polity and where voters are cynical towards the political process, the incumbent party remains in power.
As in Newton's law of motion: the political energy required to change the status quo is higher than the political energy that is required to keep the status quo in place or on a straight trajectory.
Where energy is lacking, everything stays as it is: ruling party wins again.
Apr 30 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
On the PDP delegates system as I know it.
To understand it, you have to understand 3 things: the Party Administration Structure, Congress/Convention and then Delegate types.
The party admin structure mirrors the INEC structure for Nigeria: National - Zonal - State - LGA - Ward.
To ensure that decisions taken are fully representative, the largest gathering of party members is the highest authority in the focal area.
When these members gather nationally, it is a National Convention.
When they gather at any level other than Nationally, it is a Congress.
Apr 13 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Someone asked why I'd take Tinubu over Osinbajo if I had no choice and thinking about it, for me it boils down to 3 major things:
1. We know Bola Tinubu, good, bad and ugly, we can sort of predict his kind of presidency. To me, Osinbajo is a mystery and a contradiction;
2. Tinubu has more leverage, political capital and contacts nationwide to be used to hold things together when they get worse and
3. A Tinubu in his 70s (or 80s sef 😁) is more likely to open doors for my generation (from 30 to 45) than an Osinbajo in his mid-60s.
Apr 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Everytime PDP picked presidential candidates from the South, the parties that became APC picked from the North and no 'analyst' queried them to match PDP on it, because zoning is a function of power.
Now APC is in power, analysts are trying to balance the onus on APC and PDP 👍🏽
Zoning is a function of power and you cannot zone what you do not have. APC is in power and the onus of zoning is on APC.
The South can trust anyone elected on the platform of PDP to balance power and not engage in APC nepotism and ethnocentrism which Buhari has perfected.
Apr 6 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Some Nigerians were angry with PDP performance while in office and they voted PDP out.
Some Nigerians are angry with PDP performance as opposition and won't vote PDP in.
It's either PDP has a PR problem to resolve or those Nigerians have a 'performative' problem to work on.
Apr 5 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
The Zoning C'ttee of the PDP towards 2023 is on the right side of history.
The historical truth of our politics is that PDP as a party, HAS NEVER officially "zoned" the Presidency anywhere in the country, to the exclusion of any aspirant based on zone or ethnicity.
What usually happens in PDP on issues like these is that a small group of power-brokers move delegates in a preferred voting direction arrived at based on horse-trading with a particular aspirant, not even a zone, and usually in line with the pragmatics of victory.
Jan 30 • 30 tweets • 6 min read
Been seeing HBD wishes to Onyeka Onwenu at 70 and been hoping someone would do a thread to evoke the memories she used to stir when we were younger.
Finding none, let me step out of my political persona today to pay homage with a thread to Nigeria's finest female singer ever.
Music is such a sentimental form of art as an expression that it is hard to find consensus on it most times. And every generation thinks its music is the best through the ages.
With some of us approaching our 40s, we would gladly concede to our elders though on Onyeka Onwenu.