Changing geopolitical situation is shifting global alliances. Security trumps all else. Future is concentric circles of trust. CANZUK, Anglosphere, Commonwealth
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Feb 20 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Excellent by @NJ_Timothy.
I just wanted to highlight a few points from the article
Through 1980s & 1990s Britain generally had the third most competitive industrial electricity costs of G7. But since then we have performed far worse. In the 5 yrs before Tony Blair became PM, our industrial electricity costs were around 9 % higher than avg of advanced economies
Jan 24 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
Last night @SimonClarkeMP published an article in the Daily Telegraph calling for the Tory party to replace Sunak as PM or face electoral wipe out
A number of senior Tory MPs responded that now was not the time to rock the boat but rather stick with the plan because it is working. Including @MPIainDS, @DavidDavisMP, @LiamFox
Used EV prices drop 23% in one year and it is only going to get worse says Autotrader
finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-…
Electric cars lose as much as half of their value after just three years on the road, new figures show, as the rate of depreciation far outstrips conventional equivalents
May 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Following my article, I have received comments that whilst my analysis does demonstrate UK exports are performing a lot better than agenda driven MSM suggests, UK is still only country in world whose export volumes have not reached pre covid levels
FT (& others) have been at it again…
I have written before about the FT’s anti Brexit bias & how its “journalists” selectively choose & manipulate data in an attempt to present Brexit as an ”entirely negative & irredeemable event” which must be reversed.
This chart taken from the article Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound” purports to demonstrate a fall in volume (not value) of UK goods exports 3mths to Jan 2023 vs same (unusual) 3 mth period in 2020 ft.com/content/021c62…
Apr 5, 2023 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
A look at the Centre for European Reform’s doppelganger model.
My thanks to Deputy Director @JohnSpringford for taking the time to converse with me about his model.
cer.eu
I heartily recommend watching the following video from UK in a changing Europe on the economic effects of Brexit, but especially the analysis of Cambridge University Professor Graham Gudgin from 5minutes in until 25 minutes.
Mar 18, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on Government plans to introduce secondary legislation in the form of a Statutory Instrument regarding the implementation of the Stormont Brake on Wednesday 22 March
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
Two weeks ago PM Sunak said that there would be a vote on the Windsor Framework in the Commons “at the appropriate time and that vote will be respected”
Mar 5, 2023 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
I was directed by @GeorgePeretzKC to read @stevePeers article on The Windsor Framework: limiting the scope of EU law in Northern Ireland in practice, though not in theory (part 1)
“has done a pretty thorough job (and much clearer, accurate, expert, and objective than Barrett’s poor article” on explaining the legal changes to the NIP from the Windsor Framework.
Fact that you & Harry are - in part - disagreeing about the article is trying to say is itself a bit revealing. eg, this first paragraph is very confusing. Most people would assume “the text” meant “the text of the deal” - ie the legal text of the deal.
Mar 2, 2023 • 39 tweets • 11 min read
Following my thread re @SBarrettBar interview on GB News in which I stated that it was noticeable that whilst we have seen other legal analysis which concurs with @SBarrettBar (eg John Larkin QC), we have not seen any legal analysis which disputes it.
I have been asked for a quick take on the Windsor Framework.
I am making my way through the documents and should have an article on the subject in @TheCriticMag later this week but in a nutshell my view is this is fundamentally a bad deal.
gov.uk/government/pub…
I fully expect when best legal minds have waded through (forensically analysed) the details they will confirm that for UK as a whole the framework is a tool to prevent divergence & potential stepping stone to alignment. (I look forward to @SBarrettBar always impartial analysis)
Nov 5, 2022 • 40 tweets • 10 min read
Britain is better off outside SM
With replacement of Boris, then Truss with Sunak & return to cabinet of prominent “Remainers” comes the inevitable calls to “rebalance relations” with EU. Code for (& now expressed openly) a demand to re-join SM.
thecritic.co.uk/britain-is-bet…
We are being inundated yet again with forecasts of economic doom as a result of leaving the SM & (CU) with any & every event inelegantly contorted to imply a Brexit effect.
Oct 22, 2022 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Was there ever a black hole?
Kwarteng’s budget offered a potential route out.
Hunt’s plans are simply a self-fulfilling route to a cul-de -sac dead end
And none of it was necessary…
thecritic.co.uk/was-there-ever…
PM Truss resigns - the inevitable result when just 6 short days ago, she relieved Chancellor Kwarteng of his duties & reversed the planned cuts (or rather plan not to increase) corporation tax as part of her strategy to increase long term GDP growth.
The Tory party began as the party of the landed class. Under Peel it legged over the landed class by repealing the corn laws and became the party of the new industrial middle class.
Under Disraeli it widened the franchise to the working class and became the party of the working class.
Oct 14, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
£60b black hole
There has been a lot of chatter about the supposed £60b black hole in the nation’s finance post the IFS Green budget report earlier this week.
Effectively it is the gap between their forecast for tax revenues raised and tax spent in the period up until 2026/7.
Oct 12, 2022 • 35 tweets • 6 min read
Deindustrialization in Germany
- Putting the UK current economic performance in perspective -
I was recently sent this article with the question “is this how you deliver growth?”
thetimes.co.uk/article/small-…
The article covers a British Chambers of Commerce survey of small & medium sized businesses & reports a “collapse” in export growth with only 22% of companies reporting export growth compared to 35% previously. ..
Oct 8, 2022 • 32 tweets • 5 min read
As the NIP begins its second reading next week with the intent of ensuring largely unfettered trade between GB & NI, voices have again been raised suggesting that such action would necessitate a hard border on the island of Ireland in order to protect the EU SM.
The UK is being accused (again) of magical thinking, believing in Unicorns and that unfettered trade is impossible without the whole UK fully & permanently aligning with EU rules & regulations.
Oct 2, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
There has been a lot of hyperbole, exaggeration & vitriol following last week’s budget. Screams that the new PM is driving the country into recession & a property crash. Demands she should u-turn.
I decided to look beyond that and at the actual data...
thecritic.co.uk/Some-perspecti…
Lots of it has failed to put the market moves into perspective. This is a global event caused by Federal Reserve tightening. It is not just the pound that is at decades long lows against the mighty dollar. It is the Yen, the Won and yes even the euro.
Sep 28, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Update on my "Mortgages - some perspective" thread today.
I keep being asked what about forecasts for higher interest rates in future?
Why is this only happening in the UK?
Is it the Government's fault as we keep being told by the media?
The increase in interest rates/mortgage rates is not a UK specific issue regardless of what the media is trying to tell you
Sep 28, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Mortgages – some perspective
You may have seen a lot of hyperbole about the mini budget causing a spike in UK Government bond yields and the effect it will have on mortgages, property prices and the general economy.
I wanted to try to put the issue into perspective.
There are 28.1m households in the UK. Roughly a third have mortgages (c 9m).
According to UK Finance, 21% of households are on a variable rate mortgage (approximately 800,000 on a tracker mortgage and 1.1 million on a standard variable rate (SVR)).
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