Being a supporter doesn’t guarantee your survival. A secondary schoolmate of mine heads one of the big four in CN. He has been a vocal fan of CCP. People like him failed to learnt the reuters.com/world/china/ch… true nature of CCP from history. CCP is reverting to it true self under Xi. Being an ass kisser won’t guarantee your survival. The same thing happened to HK real estate developers. I was reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

How would CN economy perform these 12 months will be decisive. Most analysts predicts CN 2023 growth about 5%. Key pillars of CN growth, exports, investment spending and property development, have all been struggling. To start, 5% growth after a “unbelievable” 3% in 2022 is not a strong bounce. I think one can safely assume growth will spiral downward from 2023 onward. Much rides on CN growth trend going forward - would CN has the economic means to withstand the aftermath of Taiwan invasion? This judgment will affect the probability and timing of it.

CN is coming to eat German’s lunch. Subsidizing favored industries has been CN national policy for decades, from land acquisition price, tax breaks, to export subsidies, etc.. For Foxconn, Henan provincial govt even assign hiring quotas to each county to hbr.org/2013/04/how-ch… provide labor in a designated time frame. Foxconn was rushing to hire 300k ppl. I learnt that when I was reviewing investment in zhengzhou airport in Henan. Now ev manufacturing has been targeted as a priority and CN is making headway. It’s a delicate balancing act for Germans,

THE banker of China IT industry. Fan and I started our careers about the same time. He was working for Morgan Stanley when we first met. We have been friends over 2 decades and watched the growth of each other reuters.com/business/finan… We were both involved w Asiainfo, the first NASDAQ listed CN tech co. I did first round of it and Fan was subsequently its CFO. He financed many startups at Asiainfo and then went independent and started China Renaissance. WHY was he disappeared? As my ex’s case, we can only

Is Xi responsible for balloon fiasco? Yes and No. Recently, there have been all sorts of speculations on why the wandering balloon happened. I interacted w the CCP bureaucracy for two decades, both personally, for example with Premier Wen family, and professionally, like building Beijing airport. I would like to share my experience of how ccp govt programs come into being. What I’m sharing is generally true in all spheres, be it economy, military or industrial. It’s just the way CCP governance structure operates.
Top leadership sets a directional agenda.

How do we identify good analysis on China?
1.We need to continuously update the cast of Sinologists w ones who have recently left China after extended stay. I frequently question myself when would my experience/ knowledge of China expire. I have met / known some of the current key players on stage, and I know the psych of the bureaucracy. But I do think my experience/knowledge will expire in a few years. We all accept China is a country under constant flux. Sinologists expires fast. Even if most Sinologists are only able to be in touch w fringe

Little by little, we had this CCPness in our bones
What does it mean to be an American company in todays world? When its senior executive openly brags about helping to train CCP party officials, wsj.com/articles/honey… half its US employee number over the last 20 years, aids a US sanctioned company that flagrantly steals IP from multiple US technology companies, built factory in an areas that CCP has violated human rights for decades, and still lands on WSJ to laud its achievements in CCP ruled

Met him when he’s a lowly bureaucrat at China UK embassy. My impression: 1. His career developed over the period of china’s opening, and he had been posted in UK. He’s more open minded, more flexible and less dogmatic than the preceding generation of China diplomats; 2. He is

https://twitter.com/derekjgrossman/status/1608923740859138049

sociable and enjoys goodies of life. I ran into him multiple times dining w beauties in better restaurants in Beijing when he was spokesman for MOF. It left me a deep impression. I thought spokesman would be more discreet: 3. He knows how to make guanxi within the system, as I

What would enhance confidence in CN entrepreneurs? First of all, confidence of CN entrepreneurs has always been fragile 1. when communism is enshrined in the constitution; 2. CCP history of destroying private enterprises; 3. Favoring SOE over private enterprise is the default

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1603263306533421056

mode in all permit approval, courts, banks, etc… There’s a saying in CN, entrepreneurs are like condoms - to be used when necessary, then to be disposed. We’ve all seen how the last decade had been. On the other hand, regarding the comment of lacking demand, entrepreneurs

Why am I petrified of ccp surveillance but not the west? Everyone know mRNA vaccines are more effective than china vaccines. Ccp wants western companies to hand over mRNA technology in order to approve vaccines import. So ccp is effectively saying we want your tech for free, and

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1602518709305856011

we are willing to trade hundreds of thousands, if not million, of extra Chinese death if you don’t agree in order to block you. That’s the regime that we are dealing w. So when ppl ask why are you so upset about ccp surveillance, when many western govt doing the same thing. It’s

Always refer to the first rule. For many years now, I’ve been saying the first rule to predict Xi is that he would choose the worst possible option. I would say this is happening again - a complete opening without prep. How can CCP recover its trust among the population if millions died in the coming months? And make no mistake, millions will die. As a reference, Hong Kong is reporting about 20 death per day over the past month. HK has better medical sys, more effective vaccines, better immune population , etc.. At 7.5M, it is a mid tier city in

My book in Chinese is finally coming next February in Taiwan. Taiwan today is the only place that would publish a book in Chinese that’s not approved by CCP. But even in Taiwan, it’s complicated. The first contracted publisher chickened out. It was rushing to publish at beginning of 2022, then got cold feet and chickened out. Now, another publisher came forward and is now releasing next February. I did a lot of editing/rewriting with this Chinese version. First of all, it’s a language that I know - unlike the other 14 editions🥳. Secondly,

Let me propose another explanation of why this is happening. When Xi first came to power, he wants to form his own faction. That’s not dissimilar to any other previous CCP leaders, to create their own faction, their own loyalists and always men. Other than his old

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1593738549429522432

acquaintances from Fujian and Zhejiang, where would this batch come from? He talked to his newly appointed HR head, Chen Xi, whom I know from interactions during his Tsinghua time. I’m an honorary trustee of the school. Xi wanted new appointees not have existing political ties,

Go ask any China private entrepreneur, this claim of easy access to capital built China success is completely false. 1. bank loans in general and most definitely window directed loans go to SOE, not private enterprises. 2. access loan based on political connections 1/

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1586995635840221184

was more relevant in the 80/90s. It had become less and less the case in the past two decades. 3. If one look at the recent bankruptcies of the largest real estate companies in China, it has revealed how much of their debts are not from banks but raised from market thru 2/

I met Eric Li when he was an associate at US PE firm in mid 90s. We together went on a site visit to a motorcycle factory in Luoyang. He left me a lasting impression because he told me he can decide on that 10M investment himself. I was an analyst w a US PE firm then. 1/

https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/status/1585598933056749571

So I know the basics of how PE firms operate. There’s no way an associate have that authority. I thought he was an arrogant and boastful SOB and had avoided him since. Subsequently, i learnt he joined hand w Bo Feng to form a VC firm. I thought those two share quite a few 2/

Let me tell you the truth of “Tsinghua clique”. I’m honorary trustee of Tsinghua, gifted Tsinghua its biggest library, funded reestablishment of its humanity college, etc.. I personally know Chen Xi and Chen Jining. First of all, “Tsinghua clique” is a generic concept without 1/

https://twitter.com/ProfYangZhang/status/1585830035142877184

substance. Tsinghua graduates thousands of students every year. Just because they came from the same school, it doesn’t mean they are aligned politically. 2. Chen Xi was college mate of Xi. Xi had arranged Chen Xi career promotions 5/6 years before he became party secretary. 2/

曾经常和陈希打交道。我夫妇俩对清华大学捐献良多，清华最大的图书馆，人文图书馆就是我们捐的，并捐助重建了清华的人文学系，曾有每年捐助几十个贫穷的优异学生，等等等等，都是在陈任书记时办的。我是清华大学荣誉校董。我对陈的印象是：能干、办事有章法、相对廉洁、有爱国情怀、1/

https://twitter.com/xzzzjpl/status/1585181510994644993

但爱自我吹嘘。他和王歧山都无子女。我们私下开玩笑说，习的左右手，一个抓人，－个接着补空位位置，都是断子绝孙的人物。他和习关系密切，习上任前五六年就开始帮他调动官位，从清华书记副部级的位置，升到地方大员，补齐履历上缺失地方任职的经验，2/

Over the past couple of years, I’ve frequently been asked by different govts how they should deal w mainland Chinese immigrants doing the callings of China embassies, callings like voting for ccp favorite candidates in elections or attacking dissidents. I think one of CCP 1/ successes is creating this world of alternative reality. We all know how they created that world. What hasn’t been really studied is how that affected the people - how people grown up in that world of alternative reality sees the world. To me, they seems to think the world only2/

I really is compelled to clarify this myth about youth league. So much misunderstanding in my view. 1. I have known many senior Chinese bureaucrats belonging to the youth league, to which I mean vice minister ranking and up. 2/ fast tracked young bureaucrats, many from youth 1/ league started w Deng. At the beginning of reform and opening, Deng believed the then existent bureaucrats didn’t have the knowledge and experience to lead changes. Young bureaucrats were needed as replacement. Many were intentionally fast tracked, including Hu Yaobang. 3.Over2/

A piece I wrote yesterday, the day before politburo announcement today. To discuss the risk of Taiwan invasion and Chinese economy over the next decade, i think I should start w what is the key motivation factor of Xi

LEGACY
The key issue is to determine what motivates Xi. 1/ It’s obvious by now that what drives him is setting his legacy. We can see that by how he has written himself into ccp history thus far. He will continue on this path, writing his legacy into ccp history. He has said his regime is about 强起来. 一个国家一个政党一个领袖 2/