A @t1alpha 🧵 for serious investors (as opposed to headlines tourists following Powell knowingly & speciously tracking dated data)

~record Establishment/Household job data disparity “takes on particular urgency given combination of poor response rates for establishment survey… & likely overstated level of Birth/Death Adjustments.”

@BLS_gov “methodology, if company does NOT respond to survey, they’re assumed to have experienced same rate of growth as the reporting companies. Likewise, B/D adjustment currently skewed in favor of new business formation…

Zoltan stepping outside his comfort zone

“Don’t envy the Fed: the inflation picture is complex. Goods prices were a steady source of disinflation for the past 2 decades, which gave Fed precious time & cover to figure out what to do with policy rates to control services inflation Not today. Goods inflation is now a tailwind, not a headwind. Your correspondent is no expert on goods price inflation, but he reads the papers enough to sense that with supply chain & distribution bottlenecks everywhere, goods inflation won’t disappear (slow maybe; disappear no)