One of the most chaotic and corrupted prediction market resolutions happened earlier this week on a $7m market on Polymarket, with the aid of an UMA dispute.

Multiple bulwarks to prevent something like this from happening totally failed.

Let's call it a “Home Alone Attack.”

The attackers waited for the adults to leave, and moved in.

But in this version of the story, the idiot Wet Bandits bypassed all the booby traps and robbed the house. The profit was ~$200k for Harry & Marv, plus additional money for the rest of the crew.

Long thread⌛ The market in question is about a mineral deal between the US and Ukraine. Market pictured below.

To state the obvious, there is not yet a mineral deal, and the market suddenly expiring for yes on a random March weekend is a very perplexing outcome.

Prior to the market being expired, the deal had previously reached a high of 97% odds in late February, only for the mineral deal to fall apart in the Oval Office when JD Vance famously insisted that Zelensky wasn't thanking the US profusely enough.

Recently, it traded below 10% as April approached.

But the holders of Yes were forming a plan to try to push it to Yes regardless of whether a deal materialized in the final week.

Seems like an opportune time to write a little bit about some bad stuff that happens on prediction markets, including a recently unearthed scam that was aimed directly at my face. Prediction markets are peer to peer, so you're betting against other people instead of some unseen bookmaker

If it was a bookmaker, I couldn't do this as a job because they could just ban me or whatever. But I CAN do it as a job, as long as I stay a bit smarter than the avg user