@DonutShorts's Threads
The Kincade Fire now threatens Healdsburg, a city of 50K N of Santa Rosa. 80MPH winds were observed there overnight. $PCG equity deal is void if >500 homes are destroyed by PCG caused fire
Thoughts go out to those impacted by the fire. Be safe
Updates: sfchronicle.com/california-wil…
Thoughts go out to those impacted by the fire. Be safe
Updates: sfchronicle.com/california-wil…
Winds getting worse: 
The gaslighting by Musk continues, even under oath.
Objectively, the most indisputable thing in the $SCTY case is that it was unable to fund itself in the capital markets. $TSLA
Objectively, the most indisputable thing in the $SCTY case is that it was unable to fund itself in the capital markets. $TSLA
Why did $SCTY need to turn to SpaceX for funding in 2015/16?
Because it would have failed credit approval at $MS or $GS (loan rated either "special mention" or "sub-standard" *at issuance* )
SilverLake deal had 44% effective rate
Did SpaceX get a market rate at 6.9%
Because it would have failed credit approval at $MS or $GS (loan rated either "special mention" or "sub-standard" *at issuance* )
SilverLake deal had 44% effective rate
Did SpaceX get a market rate at 6.9%
Based on the $SCTY depositions, it seems likely that TSLAQ has underestimated the degree to which margin debt/margin calls influenced actions/behavior at $TSLA.
For example:
Or this:
Who wants to play fire report roulette? $PCG
How long would you like to be at the close on Friday? $PCG
There's headline risk, and then there's $PCG
Probably nothing....
Probably nothing....
Query: For how many quarters was Musk promising Advanced/Smart Summon?
Query: What could go wrong with unleashing beta-stage robo-taxis in parking lots with dozens of pedestrians traversing them in a given hour?
$TSLA
Query: What could go wrong with unleashing beta-stage robo-taxis in parking lots with dozens of pedestrians traversing them in a given hour?
$TSLA
2/
Query: What public good is served by this "feature" which by all observed instances requires more time to complete the pickup than simply walking to the car, while it stymies the flow of other traffic with its halting and uncertain course to the driver controlling it?
$TSLA
Query: What public good is served by this "feature" which by all observed instances requires more time to complete the pickup than simply walking to the car, while it stymies the flow of other traffic with its halting and uncertain course to the driver controlling it?
$TSLA
3/
Query: What, exactly, was being done by the bureaucrats @NHTSAgov and the many millions of taxpayer dollars they control, to anticipate the issues that might arise from deploying this “feature” over the many quarters that Musk was advertising it? $TSLA
Query: What, exactly, was being done by the bureaucrats @NHTSAgov and the many millions of taxpayer dollars they control, to anticipate the issues that might arise from deploying this “feature” over the many quarters that Musk was advertising it? $TSLA
A cursory review of the Advanced Summon videos out there reveals the truth of this statement.
So why bother releasing it now? Why risk invoking the wrath of tens of thousands of retail property owners and their patrons, and adding more damage to the $TSLA brand?
Cui bono?
So why bother releasing it now? Why risk invoking the wrath of tens of thousands of retail property owners and their patrons, and adding more damage to the $TSLA brand?
Cui bono?
As @Polixenes13 , @boriquagato and others have pointed out, this is a smash and grab job on the FSD deferred revenue account to prop up the *optics* of revenue and margins (it will do nothing for cash flow, of course, $TSLA long ago received the FSD payments)
Source for the quote at the top of this thread, and more commentary on the absurdity of this "feature"
h/t @zomgapocalypse
h/t @zomgapocalypse
The dead bodies are now starting to float to the surface in NYC MF market due to June's changes in NYC rent control laws
These are 2 buildings on the Upper West Side - sponsor's game plan was to move regulated units to unregulated status either by buyout or vacancy decontrol.
These are 2 buildings on the Upper West Side - sponsor's game plan was to move regulated units to unregulated status either by buyout or vacancy decontrol.
Upon further review, the sponsor said, "not so much" and defaulted as of August.
The loans sit in a CRE CLO, and the CLO manager has elected to purchase the loans from the CLO, lest they trigger a requirement to redeem some of the CLO's capital stack.
The loans sit in a CRE CLO, and the CLO manager has elected to purchase the loans from the CLO, lest they trigger a requirement to redeem some of the CLO's capital stack.
So the sponsor has decided to flush $25MM of equity, rather than throw good money after bad to fund the buildings (DSCR was < 1.0 at the June 2018 closing).
The manager and sponsor of the CLO is an entity that is funded by GIC and CPPIB, which are SWFs of Singapore & Canada
The manager and sponsor of the CLO is an entity that is funded by GIC and CPPIB, which are SWFs of Singapore & Canada
1/ 1200 Lakes Drive, West Covina, CA
18 Screen cineplex + parking garage
NNN lease with multiple renewal options
Sponsor needed to kick in $1.6MM to get the previous loan to roll
18 Screen cineplex + parking garage
NNN lease with multiple renewal options
Sponsor needed to kick in $1.6MM to get the previous loan to roll
2/ The underwritten rent has barely budged from the issuance of the last loan (2014) and the appraised value of the building is down $3MM despite the drop in interest rates. And according to the loan description, the rent is due to decline a year from now:
3/ It was a similar story with another retail property in the neighborhood that refied last year, and the Starwood owned mall in the area is sucking wind too
The area's demographics aren't great, and with all the carnage in retail, it's a tenant's market
The area's demographics aren't great, and with all the carnage in retail, it's a tenant's market
1/ I detect a note of panic in SV as $WE is about to experience "rapid unplanned disassembly" at the end of the runway.
You can see the dominoes lined up ready to tip.
Big write downs in the Vision Fund are coming
They will pull in their horns on deal making
You can see the dominoes lined up ready to tip.
Big write downs in the Vision Fund are coming
They will pull in their horns on deal making
2/ Sea level in the unicorn eco-system will experience a sudden drop as the big marginal source of money leaves
Deal pricing will suffer
The notion of a "sure thing" will pop
Deal sizes will come down
Suddenly hiring, salaries, parties, etc will become less extravagent
Deal pricing will suffer
The notion of a "sure thing" will pop
Deal sizes will come down
Suddenly hiring, salaries, parties, etc will become less extravagent
3/ The recriminations have started
@WeWorkAdam bought a G650!
The Self Dealing!
Who's minding the store!
Hey, you're going to f*ck it up for everyone else!
@WeWorkAdam bought a G650!
The Self Dealing!
Who's minding the store!
Hey, you're going to f*ck it up for everyone else!
The depositions of Courtney McBean of Evercore and George Bilicic of Lazard are among the more notable redactions in the $TSLA / $SCTY filing.
Inquiring minds would love to know what they said to the respective boards.
Inquiring minds would love to know what they said to the respective boards.
For example:
That Evercore fairness opinion on the $SCTY acquisition certainly deserve closer scrutiny in light of the discovery details. $TSLA
1/ Some background on the "entire fairness" doctrine that will be at issue in the litigation related to $TSLA 's $SCTY acquistion:
rc.com/documents/Prim…
rc.com/documents/Prim…
2/ Setting aside the business judgment rule is rarely done, but the $SCTY deal would seem to be a prime candidate for that:
3/ The test that determines whether to apply the fairness doctrine:
It is very instructive to observe the reaction of outsiders who turn-over the rocks on NYS government.
@bethanymac12 comes away gobsmacked at the lack of transparency and Cuomo's abdication of responsibility on the NYS "investment" in the $SCTY / $TSLA gigafactory in Buffalo
@bethanymac12 comes away gobsmacked at the lack of transparency and Cuomo's abdication of responsibility on the NYS "investment" in the $SCTY / $TSLA gigafactory in Buffalo
At the 5:00 mark: (paraphrasing) NYS put $750MM into the $TSLA Buffalo gigafactory, and yet it is effectively off limits to reporters - stunning.
@bethanymac12 commenting on the lack of transparency on taxpayers' investment
@bethanymac12 commenting on the lack of transparency on taxpayers' investment
At the 6:15 mark: (paraphrasing) "shocked by the lack of willingness of NYS officials to defend this deal. Neither ESD nor Cuomo's office would comment. Stunning abdication of responsibility - you own it, defend it. I haven't encountered much of that in my 25 years of reporting"
There is no hiding the abysmal level of product and service quality at $TSLA Even the hard core believers are now calling a spade a spade
You're not going to cross the chasm to mainstream non-virtue signalers who need to get to work everyday w this level of quality/reliability
You're not going to cross the chasm to mainstream non-virtue signalers who need to get to work everyday w this level of quality/reliability
h/t @Reboticant
1/ So last night, uber-troll tesla_truth subtweeted the above post & passive aggressively tweet-shamed this devoted Tesla owner for telling the truth about the quality of the product & service $TSLA delivered, lest his experience became "FUD"
1/ I am not a lawyer, but as a layman, I have to say this is some inspired work by $WMT 's legal team.
2/ They have clearly studied their target, and learned what makes Musk tick. They clearly understand that he owes his current status to putting forth narratives that can be leveraged to raise capital.
3/So they put forth their own deeply annotated narrative (when was the last time you saw pictures in a legal brief?) and folded in the comments of credible third parties documenting the chaos and slipshod nature of Muskworld
The Branson, mixed use building at 15 West 55th, down the street from the Peninsula, goes to special servicing in July.
15K of 3 level retail space + 31 resi units (6 of which were rent stabilized at loan origination in Jan 2015)
15K of 3 level retail space + 31 resi units (6 of which were rent stabilized at loan origination in Jan 2015)
2/ Domenico Vacca, a high end fashion retailer which accounted for 58% of the in-place base rent when the loan was originated, has defaulted.
Lease signed in 11/14, near top of #highstreet retail market.
I expect we will see quite a few of these in coming quarters.
Lease signed in 11/14, near top of #highstreet retail market.
I expect we will see quite a few of these in coming quarters.
3/ Coverage on the loan was decent prior to default. But this one is likely to leave a mark.
1/It appears the smart money in the shadow banking space is moving away from reliance on bank lines, which contain mark to market provisions, to fund the loans they make.
This is an underappreciated risk for smaller players in the space.
This is an underappreciated risk for smaller players in the space.
2/ There also appears to be an embedded comment on the economic outlook.
First, from the $STWD call yesterday.
First, from the $STWD call yesterday.
3/ And from this morning's FS KKR call:
LOL, after having its "contracted backlog" numbers come under scrutiny by @AureliusValue , $TEUM will no longer report this metric after Q3
$TEUM says AR will be "plateauing" in 2H, which upon further questioning is actually increasing in through at least Q1 next year.
Our $TEUM sock puppet of the day. Appears on Twitter 3 weeks after @AureliusValue 's report, tweets only about this stock, and zero footprint anywhere the web. Anyone want to place bets on links to the people behind sock puppets pumping scammy companies???
Is there anyone who doesn't think $TSLA 's production rate is material information to an investor?
It seems like there are two possibilities.
Either Wade Malone is using MNPI for pecuniary purposes, or he's just making sh*t up. I don't really see any middle ground.
Either Wade Malone is using MNPI for pecuniary purposes, or he's just making sh*t up. I don't really see any middle ground.
Also, didn't Tom Randall use VIN ranges for a much vaunted model that came to tears? What rational basis is there to expect a different outcome, particularly given how $TSLA plays hopscotch with VIN sequences?
$CBL 's Q2 print included a $33MM impairment of Eastgate mall in Cincy
This is a good example of the land mines in the B/C mall space
The mall was rated a Tier 2 mall in their rubric (above Tier 3 & Non-Core) and in Jan 2017 they bought back the Sears box.
However,
This is a good example of the land mines in the B/C mall space
The mall was rated a Tier 2 mall in their rubric (above Tier 3 & Non-Core) and in Jan 2017 they bought back the Sears box.
However,
2/ The mall's performance has deteriorated of late (didn't say how much but sales/ft down 10% in 2018) and its mortgage comes due in 4/21.
It appears $CBL management has concluded that they won't be able to refi the loan, so they took a write down, but only a partial one.
It appears $CBL management has concluded that they won't be able to refi the loan, so they took a write down, but only a partial one.
3/ Most likely there will be further impairments taken on Eastgate between now and the loan's maturity, further stressing $CBL credit metrics on both the leverage and coverage tests.
This is unlikely to be the last surprise of this type on the books of $CBL and $WPG
This is unlikely to be the last surprise of this type on the books of $CBL and $WPG
Powell's mastery of communicating with the markets continues:
Trump: Hold my beer
How much inversion would you like in your yield curve, Mr. Powell?
Any of this sound familiar? $FB
Here's Zuck:
"we're going to make some major structural changes to how we build products and run this company.
We have a responsibility to protect people's privacy...now we're going to set a completely new standard for our industry"
Here's Zuck:
"we're going to make some major structural changes to how we build products and run this company.
We have a responsibility to protect people's privacy...now we're going to set a completely new standard for our industry"
This sh*t has been going on for at least 12 years with the same mea culpa everytime Zuck is caught.
I'm sure there are more incidents not in this list. Nothing will change.
Zuck can still fire everyone on the $FB board, they know, he knows it.
I'm sure there are more incidents not in this list. Nothing will change.
Zuck can still fire everyone on the $FB board, they know, he knows it.
They made this announcement on same day as Mueller hearings that will dominate all other news
Sandberg started her career in DC. None of this is coincidence. She's a politician at her core & the coin of the realm in DC is BSing your way through problems
Today is no different
Sandberg started her career in DC. None of this is coincidence. She's a politician at her core & the coin of the realm in DC is BSing your way through problems
Today is no different
I have a close friend who has dealt with epilepsy for over a decade. It is one of the most poorly understood neurological diseases out there. I doubt Musk has read one entire book about it, much less has any clue about how to treat it.
2/The odds are overwhelming that this is the FSD grift applied to health care, except that Musk will be playing Dr. Frankenstein with live patients. We've seen a similar version of this movie with $MDXG so my expectations that the FDA will stop this farce are very low.
3/If you suffer from epilepsy, particularly if it is severe, I understand the desire to grasp at a potential solution. Please do your homework on all of Musk's grand promises and his penchant for beta testing products on unwitting subjects.
Puerto Rico is a flaming dumpster fire of corruption and mismanagement. Six people arrested on corruption charges yesterday including several cabinet members and the head of BDO in PR.
Hey @ctambar , I'm delighted to hear that you're an advocate for free speech and a 'marketplace of ideas'
In furtherance of this notion, please tell us how many conservative speakers you have invited to Oberlin College in the last year?
In furtherance of this notion, please tell us how many conservative speakers you have invited to Oberlin College in the last year?
Or is this a Road to Damascus conversion to these principles now that your institution has been convicted of libel after it helped to mau mau a local merchant who had the temerity to prosecute two of your students for shoplifting?
Do tell.
wsj.com/articles/oberl…
Do tell.
wsj.com/articles/oberl…
Here's more on the 'marketplace of ideas' as it is practiced on the Oberlin campus blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-tragic-tra…
