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Ben Fairfax Profile picture
Ben Fairfax
@DrBen4Sats
Dad, Husband, Maths PhD, #firstgen. IoM 2015-18 A-Level Results https://t.co/lJbmpEdCxE (FOI 499635),IoM SEIR Omicron Wave Model link below.
Jul 19, 2021 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
The IoM (as UK is) is undergoing a natural wave where COVID will move through the low risk groups until we reach herd immunity. At present
(19th July) 64,400 1st jabs over population 84,584, if all these get 2nd jab, 2+2 coverage will be 76% we need 85%+ for herd immunity.(1/n) Let's assume we had 5K real infections over prior waves (1,500 known + plenty unknown). So have roughly 15,000 potential hosts now with no jabs (mainly children). If apply the standard SEIR model of infectious disease outbreak (system 4 ODEs) with the following parameters: (2/n)