Chief Economist at Fresh Economic Thinking. Corruption and property market specialist.
May 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
My son’s year 12 class had a mortgage broker visit to talk about finances today.
Classic Aussie education there.
Apparently his story was that buying three houses was optimal. Leverage up and ride the boom the pay down your mortgage later.
Oct 18, 2023 • 30 tweets • 9 min read
I write a weekly economics newletter called Fresh Economic Thinking.
Most of my Twitter/X followers are not subscribed.
Here's a thread of some posts that you might have missed.
Please like, share and subscribe. Bigger and better things are coming in 2024
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I cover topics like housing, economic statistic, family/ageing, superannuation, and more.
This article would have helped you to expect the surprise surge in home prices that has arisen despite higher interest rates in 2023.
New data is out showing Australian deaths are running at 11.3% above average.
The lack of interest in this is a puzzle in light of the last few years.
Yet I predicted that we would stop caring about excess mortality.
1/ abs.gov.au/statistics/hea…
In Aug 2021 I predicted that "Australia will see a year with a 7% increase in all-cause deaths (about 10,000) in the next decade and no one will notice"
This prediction made if covid policy was crowd behaviour, not a logical response to a health risk
Property developers repeatedly say that there is a market limit on the rate of new housing supply.
Here are some quotes from the summary of developer meetings from the UK Letwin review (with page numbers).
THREAD gov.uk/government/pub…
“They could build more but aim to achieve a certain price level” pAX127
Feb 17, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
With the end of the Holden brand it is worth reflecting on the pro-active industrial policies used to create Australian car manufacturing capability in the first place.
I use this vid in my econ development class to show the extent of the policies (1/4)
Observe: 1. Import restrictions 2. Import exemptions for high-tech capital 3. Foreign exchange controls 4. Selective parts tariffs 5. Import tacit knowledge with key foreign personnel 6. Gov threat to compete with public car-maker 7. Public bank credit to new car industry (2/4)
Sep 22, 2019 • 23 tweets • 11 min read
I've gained many new Twitter followers recently. For those who want to know what I'm all about, this thread is for you.
It links to many recent blogposts on key topics like housing supply, hidden assumptions in economic theory, radical policy ideas, and politics.
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Delay or develop? What really determines the rate of new housing supply
A thread on my experience: 1. 90% of students in my economics masters classes are international. 2. Half of them struggle with basic English 3. When I ask in tutorials why they are doing the degree, half tell me that they "need more points for their residency visa" (1/n)
4. They tell me they choose economics because they can do the maths but don't need to understand anything or write anything. 5. I always set written essays or reports. Students tell me that they know other students are using paid 'essay writing' services to pass my class (2/n)
