With votes mostly counted, an analysis of pollster accuracy in the 2022 election. (thread)

Thanks to @FiveThirtyEight for keeping track of the polls used here. Their archive is an important public service and a great asset to researchers. Overall, 2022 senate and governor polling was highly accurate. The average poll error in the margin between Dem and Rep candidates, in polls within a month of Election Day, was near zero.

Chart: Positive values are polls that overestimated Ds, negative values overestimated Rs.

New poll released today: To see why Biden's job approval rating is falling, we tested 12 policies/actions he's taken this year. But it turns out that voters give him net approval on 10 of them.

@Civiqs/@dailykos pdf: civiqs.com/documents/Civi… Net approval of Biden actions:

Increasing COVID-19 vaccination: +59% (!)
Juneteenth a new federal holiday: +19%
Passing the American Rescue Plan: +17%
Leaving Afghanistan: +17%
Canceling student debt for borrowers with disabilities: +16%
Enhanced child tax credit payments: +16%

Some results from our recent @Civiqs/@dailykos poll of attitudes towards the Jan 6 U.S. Capitol attacks really stand out, especially on the Republican side.

Highlights follow. civiqs.com/reports/2021/8… 1/5 Back in January, 90% of Republicans supported arresting people who broke into the Capitol. Now only 55% of Republicans support arrests.

In January, 8% of Republicans wanted no arrests. Now, 38% of Republicans say that none of the Capitol attackers should be arrested. 2/5

New poll: Reality is sinking in for how long the pandemic is going to last.

Now: 44% of Americans think it will be 6+ months until things go back to normal. 27% say we'll never be back to normal.

In April, 55% believed the pandemic would be over by June.
civiqs.com/reports/2020/9… In hindsight, 57% of Americans now believe that the U.S. government should have done more in response to the coronavirus outbreak in the spring, when the outbreak began.

Only 27% think that the government did enough.

This is a thread on presidential election forecasting, polls, and fundamentals, based on my research and experience forecasting the 2012 and 2016 elections.

Let's walk through some of the debates and why it gets contentious. If we had to guess, right now, who's going to win in 2020, it's probably Joe Biden. Why? Because Trump is unpopular, the economy's terrible, and Biden is leading in the polls. projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…

I want to share some of the results of our new coronavirus survey, out today, because the impact on people's lives, across the country, is already staggering. Not just health; it's work, income, and how and where it's felt. (1/?)

The full report is here: civiqs.com/reports/2020/3… As of 3/30, 94% of Americans are practicing social distancing. That's good! It's also a huge number and highlights how widespread the awareness of the crisis is. I have been doing survey research for 20+ years and almost never see percentages this high on anything. (2/?)