Worth watching the Cabinet spat on immigration very closely. It’s an important clue as to how lots of the wider supply side agenda will go. There’s a theory that the huge tax cuts bought Truss the credibility with the right of her party to do other pro-growth stuff that they don’t usually like: easing immigration rules, house building, changing planning law on infra projects, etc.

Lots in this piece:

‘Biscotti mini-budget’ exposes gulf between Liz Truss and Keir Starmer — and more tax cuts are on the cards

thetimes.co.uk/article/069739… But especially in these two paras. Lots to unpack!

duncanweldon.substack.com/p/a-series-of-… Economics means more support is going to be needed for both households and firms. Politics makes tax cuts unavoidable. We likely get both next month.
Then in Autumn there will have to be some more inflation compensation for the NHS and schools (at the very least).

Well hello. Sent one to my A-level history teacher today. Because I’m just a nice guy.

New on Value Added. Is the UK heading for a recession?
I’m surprised more people aren’t asked this! duncanweldon.substack.com/p/is-the-uk-he… To start with, forecasting is hard.
So hard that the consensus forecasts compiled by HMT missed the last two recessions until they began. duncanweldon.substack.com/p/is-the-uk-he…

New on Value Added.
Some reflections on ‘that chart’.
duncanweldon.substack.com/p/giving-up-on… The numbers for 2019-2024 are uniquely bad. But the whole period from 2008 onwards has been grim.

This really is the best chart I’ve seen in years. So much in it! It’s an economic history of Britain since the mid-60s.
Things to look out for: compare the growth across the distribution in the 1970s to the 2000s and then try and square that with the popular perceptions.

New on Value Added. Takeaways from a first look at the Spring Statement.
It’s important to put the newly announced tax cuts in their wider context! duncanweldon.substack.com/p/spring-state… The raising of NICS thresholds is worth less than the amount raised by the new Health & Social Care Levy. The cut in the basic rate of income tax is worth less than the freeze in income tax thresholds.

bbc.com/news/business-…
Worth a read. But… Also worth remembering Britain has the cheapest food in Western Europe.

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati…

More EVs are great for climate targets but, without a reform of driving taxes, they bring 3 problems.

economist.com/britain/2021/0… 1. A Fiscal hole as fuel duty and VED dries up.

One week today.

hachette.co.uk/titles/duncan-… Appols for plugging it *again*.
Here is some dog content.

The background of the French infantry rank and file in the 18th century. For context, the country was 80-85% rural.
So the army very much skewed urban and non-peasant.
(From Lynn’s The Bayonets of the Republic). Yes, I’m having an excellent holiday. Thank you.

9 day klaxon.

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1400757500215955456

A taste: here’s a thread about Luddites.

https://twitter.com/duncanweldon/status/1420776140214521862

A Sunday evening thread on the early twentieth century British debate on free trade vs tariffs and why it might be relevant to the Brexit debate.
You can stretch supposed economic parallels until they break. But I want to talk about politics instead. There’s been a lot of discussion on whether British politics can now “move on” from Brexit.
I have no idea. Certainly our trading relationship with Europe will still matter a great deal. But the issue might fade from politics. This is where the early twentieth century is useful

Be careful with economic stats. A quick thread.
The ONS are an excellent organisation. They’ve done some superb & timely work on different aspects of Covid-19.
But, as they rightly acknowledge, everyone now needs to be very careful with all of their headline stats. The lockdown, followed by rapidly changing consumption patterns raises serious questions about their inflation data. I wrote about this in April. google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.econ…

Based on a skim of the White Paper:
On the face of it (leaving the Single Market & Customs Union) this is not what would have been called a “soft” Brexit 2 yrs ago.
But it’s a bit softer than that suggests. Lots of “let’s keep this and that bit of the CU/SM but not call it that” In one line: about as soft as is possible whilst keeping the existing red lines in name, if not exactly in spirit.

Unless you’re me... Economic history is rarely that exciting.
But right now it really is. And the wonders of twitter and the internet mean we can watch a debate play out in real time.
So please excuse a mini thread (especially from an interested amateur rather than a participant) Right now, there’s a very active debate on the origins of industrial revolution.
Why should we care? Firstly because the IR was probably “the key event” in human history.
It’s when - for many - life stopped being nasty, brutish and short.

Brexit sector reports are the gift that keeps on giving. Superb analysis.
"Electricity is a fundamental part of modern society. Residential and industrial users rely on its use to ensure basic and vital needs such as lighting, heating or refrigeration are met on a daily basis" "ONS data1 show that every sector in the economy depends on the availability of electricity to operate."
Yes, yes they actually footnoted this point.