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Dylan Spielman Profile picture
Dylan Spielman
@DylanSpielman
Data science manager @UKLabour
Mar 9, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
NEW from me and @gideonskinner: why are the Conservatives behind Labour in the polls? 2019 Conservative voters becoming undecided or less likely to vote is having an impact, but switching to Labour is a more serious long-term problem. ipsos.com/en-uk/bringing… @IpsosUK’s Political Monitor data shows that the proportion of voters who are undecided is fairly average in comparison with historical data.
Feb 22, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Thread: How well is Labour really doing in the polls? Short answer: better than an average opposition but far from the path to a majority. Image This chart shows how much opposition parties improve on how far behind they were in the last election in Ipsos MORI polling. Starmer’s Labour started very strong with gains close to post-1992 Labour but they have now fallen behind where Miliband and post-1987 Kinnock were. Image
Jun 12, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: Keir Starmer scores the highest satisfaction ratings *ever* of an opposition leader on record, equalling Blair's record of +31 in Dec 1994.

Labour goes from the opposition leader with the worst ever ratings to one with tied best ratings! BUT: Starmer has a lower lead over Johnson's ratings than Blair did over Major or Cameron did over Brown at their peak ratings, and it is these relative ratings that matter most in elections.
Dec 22, 2019 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
How did this age divide in voting come about over time? Let’s have a look at the two ends of the age spectrum… 1/7 The Conservatives have gotten steadily less popular among 18-24 year olds over time, but the big Lab-Con gap only takes off among 18-24 year olds after they abandon the Lib Dems en masse in 2015 – the tuition fees effect. 2/7
Dec 20, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
NEW: @ipsosmori’s How Britain Voted 2019. Why did the Cons win? Firstly, because they held on to more of their 2017 voters than Lab and gained more 2017 Lab voters than Lab took from them. Net movement of 2017 Lab voters from Lab to Con boosted the Con lead from 6.5% to 12%. Secondly, the Conservatives won most of the Leave vote while the Remain vote was much more split. In fact, the Lib Dems and SNP ended up winning more of the Leave vote than the Brexit Party with 5% to 4%, while the Lib Dems, SNP, and Greens together won 31% of the Remain vote.