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Jake Profile picture
Jake
@EconomPic
An optimist who assumes everyone is full of shit or lazy. Smart because he forgets. Fuck everyone against sensible gun reform. 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦👶🏻🐶🍔🍺🏀⚾️📊🤘
Jul 19, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The beauty is you don't need home appreciation for it to be a great investment because ownership offsets (at least some) rent.

Some math:

You buy a $500k home with a 30 year FHA loan putting 3.5% ($17.5k) down. For the next 30 years, mortgage + tax + upkeep perfectly offsets what rent would have been (i.e. ignore intra-year cash flows).

After 30 years, you sell the home for 60% (60%!) less ($200k).

IRR = ~8.5% annualized Can you lose money on a home? Absolutely. Some easy ways to lose money is to 1) own a home for a very short period as transaction costs are VERY high 2) overpay for a home massively as compared to the rent you'd otherwise pay (in CA right now, rent is 1/3 a mortgage in some areas)
Mar 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Summary:
-VC execs received personal benefits (ex 50 year mortgages) from SVB
-VC companies w/ lending relationships were required to deposit at SVB
-VC companies piled deposits into SVB at < market rates
-VC execs may have provided capital at egregious terms after causing a run -VC execs received personal benefits (ex 50 year mortgages) from SVB

May 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
That’s a poster. Not a foul. C’mon
Mar 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Disinflation tweets have officially started to fill my timeline this morning Outright deflation too! And I think it’s a real possibility (at least in terms of concerns).
Jan 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Congrats to @Wealthfront!

This is what happens when you put clients 1st, such as forcing taxable clients into your high fee / tax inefficient / opaque fund marketed with incorrect data that has underperformed all 7 of its holdings since inception.

You set the FinTech bar high! Image The craziest stat to me is JPM (as swap counterparty) has made more off the fund in $$ terms since inception (what they charge above LIBOR) than their shareholders.
Dec 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The top 10 holdings of the S&P 500 from ten years ago, which directly feeds into the CAPE to project forward returns of an index that only has two of these holdings still in the top 10 (and those two now have an 8% higher weight). Another way to show this... the current top ten is > 30% of the index and was < 10% ten years ago.

And I think it’s safe to assume the earnings of these companies is up 500-1000%+ over this period (too lazy to calc).
Oct 15, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
10 years ago @theeconomist outlined the bubble in Bitcoin.

Price in October 2011 was ~$5 ~8 years ago @theeconomist again outlined the bubble in Bitcoin.

Price in November 2013 was ~$200
Sep 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
We should totally trust and retweet the keynote speaker that has said value was cheap to growth since the GFC’s valuation model Image Ten years ago he shared 5 ways to weather the “US debt hurricane”

1) dump your 60/40
2) buy TIPS
3) buy commodities / sell growth stocks
4) buy EM
5) buy HY

#’s 2-5 have underperformed #1 by 4-15% annualized

marketwatch.com/story/five-mon…
Aug 13, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Good list by @MebFaber

Here are a few of mine...

1) it’s not hard for active managers to outperform, but it is very hard to outperform with a strategy and structure that can successfully scale or after it scales 2) illiquid securities, even something with the liquidity of high quality credit, should not be passively indexed in a stand alone product
Jul 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Relative valuations across / between US styles are pretty extreme... here’s why they shouldn’t necessarily be viewed in isolation.

First the current forward PEs by small / large / growth / value relative to their history shows just how expensive large growth stocks look. BUT we need to recognize “growth” stocks (by definition) should have higher earnings growth than value stocks longer-term.

Here are actual FactSet growth numbers (that should largely be ignored - they look... quite high), but for this thread let’s assume they’re a decent proxy.
Jun 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Who could have seen this coming? These were three days apart!
Apr 20, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Alternative headline...

‘80% of Seniors Already Vaccinated!’

nytimes.com/interactive/20… Alternative headline...

‘Vaccinations proved highly effective at protecting residents at U.S. nursing home’

nytimes.com/2021/04/21/hea…