Ed Tubb Profile picture
Formerly verified Toronto Star editor focused on crime and justice. I aspire to sign off Twitter at 5 pm. etubb@thestar.ca (Partly greyhound content)
🇨🇦 🇺🇦 MJosling53 Profile picture 2 subscribed
Jul 14, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
The ongoing ups and downs of COVID-19 transmission in Ontario are important.

To me, one big forward-looking question is: What will be the baseline COVID burden moving forward, years into the future?

2022 is giving few reasons to expect that burden will be particularly low. Consider hospitalizations.

This is the chart of Ontario's hospitalization burden since Jan. 2021.

Moving forward, a v. good future w. COVID would look like late 2021 — the low part in the middle.

200 or so hospitalized on any given day. Less in the summer. More in winter.
Jun 1, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
The Star's front page this morning includes @MarcoOved, @KenyonWallace & me on how Ontario is spending billions to entrench a system of mostly for-profit long-term care that disproportionately failed to keep elders alive in the pandemic.

thestar.com/news/investiga… The expansion is going to facility construction and beds with permits that last decades. It will define a generation of care.

The expansion has no correlation with how each operator actually performed — some of the worst chains by pandemic death rates are among the most awarded.
May 31, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Headley lead-singer Jacob Hoggard has been charged with an unrelated 2016 sex assault in Kirkland Lake, Ont., a fact @alysanmati can report now that his Toronto jury has just been sequestered for deliberations.

thestar.com/news/gta/2022/… Another fact @alysanmati can now report:

The jury only learned that Hoggard's defence had mistakenly played a clip from a CBC interview detailing another entirely different woman's allegations against Hoggard because a CBC producer noticed the error in court and spoke up.
Apr 9, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read
1/n PHO has a new risk assessment on the spread of the current BA. 2 wave.

Among other things it says:

- The wave is associated with lifting mask mandates
- We're likely to see ++ serious illness in children
- Reintroducing masking would be an effective + practical intervention 2/n Source is here: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Docume…

Some observations follow, but the main one is this document is *remarkably* frank and matter-of-fact about our current state of risk and what might be effective interventions.

I encourage you to read it.

The topline risk assessment:
Apr 8, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
It's reasonably clear Ontario's current wave has not yet peaked in infections; with lag time, we're at least a couple weeks from hospitalizations peaking.

To me, the key question in the next 7-10 days is whether this hospitalization rate continues to accelerate in the meantime. We're kind of on a knife's edge:

If the current rate of hospitalization growth continues through late April, it is likely to look similar to Wave 3, (but with fewer ICUs.)

If it accelerates in the next 7-10 days, we're really not that far from a wave that looks most like Jan.
Apr 7, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Not so fun fact: It took me nearly two years before realizing this week that the previous owners had installed the gas stove's fume hood in "recirculation" mode, rather than vent out the hole in the wall it's hooked up to.

cbc.ca/news/science/g… Gas is relatively nice to cook with, for sure, but that's really only in comparison to bad electric stoves, and the downsides are very real.

If I was to replace it, it would be with electric/induction.
Jan 16, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Ontario is reporting a partial Sun. count of 3,595 COVID hospitalizations, w. 579 in ICU & 34 vented — all up
>40% v. last week.

Deaths/day (40) keep spiking.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are well > previous highs and growing.

Testing %+ is down. The fact the hospital census is always incomplete on Sundays and Mondays means there's really not much we can take away from those numbers.

Elsewhere, we're seeing pretty real signs of slowing in the gen. pop., but continued growth in congregate outbreaks + among v. old people.
Jan 15, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Ontario is reporting 3,957 COVID hospitalizations, w. 558 in ICU & 319 vented — all up 40-50% v. last week.

Deaths/day (43) now exceed peak Wave 3.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are well > previous highs and growing.

Testing %+ is down. Even though Ontario's 7-day case avg. is down 30% from its reported peak — with all the caveats about our inability to test — today is another record case count for patients 80+.

These 674 cases will have a hugely disproportionate impact on future hospital and death reports.
Jan 14, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Despite the fact that reported cases are down in Ontario — with all the caveats about test capacity — they are very much *not* down among the oldest seniors.

The 641 and 635 cases reported yesterday and today among patients 80+ are pandemic records.

(And not by a small margin.) Image Nearly 60% of all Ontario's COVID deaths have been in the 80+ age cohort.

Those patients are also by far the most likely to go to hospital or ICU.

So these cases have a hugely disproportionate effect on Ontario's serious illness metrics.
Jan 14, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Ontario is reporting 3,814 COVID hospitalizations, w. 527 in ICU & 288 vented — all up >50% v. last week.

Deaths (42) are spiking.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are well > previous highs and growing.

Testing %+ is down. ImageImageImageImage The week-over-week % growth in hosp. admissions is slower this week than last — but still going up v. quickly.

At unprecedented highs, I'd caution it's hard to know if a slight slowing necessarily reflects (relatively) fewer infections or tightening hospital admission behaviour. Image
Jan 10, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
Ontario is reporting a partial Mon. count of 2,467 COVID hospitalizations, w. 438 in ICU & 234 vented — all up a lot v. last Sun.

Deaths (12 today) are up similarly.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are also spiking well > previous highs.

(Cont.) Cases (9,706) and positivity (26.7%) are down v. last Mon., but it's v. difficult to tell if that's any kind of signal after the province abandoned general pop. testing — Ontario is not testing for Omicron's general spread, so we shouldn't assume these tell us anything about it.
Jan 9, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Despite Ontario's limited testing, cases in old seniors 70+ continue to hit large record levels, now around 2x the worst of Wave 2 and still spiking.

This pop. is responsible for >80% of COVID deaths.

(I'm not sure seniors are being undertested the same as the rest of the pop.) Here's Ontario's Omicron wave by age, with a pop. adjustment.

You can see the huge case spike came first in the 20-40 cohorts, crashing there when general pop. testing ended after Christmas.

Since, reported COVID cases have grown fastest (by far) in the 90+ age cohort, pink.
Jan 9, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
Ontario is reporting a partial Sun. count of 2,419 COVID hospitalizations, w. 412 in ICU & 226 vented — all up >80% v. last Sun.

21 new deaths add to a clear spike.

Positivity is 27.7%.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are spiking well > previous highs. On hospitalizations, the Sunday and Monday numbers are typically an incomplete census, with some hospitals not reporting, so this 2,419 is a likely undercount that we'll be able to resolve in a few days.

Regardless, we're on track to surpass peak Wave 2 ICUs (421) within days.
Jan 8, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
Ontario is reporting a record 2,594 COVID hospitalizations w. 385 in ICU and 219 vented — all up >80% v. last week.

30 new deaths add to a clear post-New Year spike.

Positivity is 30.6%.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are all records, growing fast. ImageImageImageImage On hospitalizations, I am personally surprised to see such a spike in ventilations (219 today, up from 112 last Sat.) to go along with ICUs, since we'd been hearing reports that Omicron's disease profile was different esp. in the lungs.

Here's that on a standard scale.

(cont.) Image
Jan 7, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
At the end of this week, I am concerned about how many people may be surprised by the downside risk of Ontario's Omicron wave, let alone a middle percentile outcome. Like. The most recent Science Table projections ended Jan. 1, but the trendlines keep going...

This thing is taking off later than those projections called for, but we're not not following a middle-to-bad-case trajectory.
Jan 7, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
Ontario is reporting a record 2,472 COVID hospitalizations w. 338 in ICU and 177 vented — all up a lot.

43 new deaths (42 recent) is a v. significant spike; most since Wave 3.

Positivity is 26.6%.

Active outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are all records. On deaths: The province has a statement on the spike in today's deaths, referring to it as a data catch-up, and suggesting a change in counting methods.

In the data, we see these are mostly v. recent cases — 31 had their sample taken after Christmas — with this age breakdown.
Jan 6, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
Ontario is reporting 2,279 COVID hospitalizations, w. 319 in ICU and 164 vented — all +++ v. last week.

20 new deaths are most since June (but early to know this is Omicron.)

Positivity is 29.2%*.

Active outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters etc. are all records. * On cases and positivity: Since the province is no longer doing general-pop. testing, these numbers can't tell us how Omicron is hitting the general pop. (this includes positivity.)

Regardless, Ontario is reporting 13,339 cases Thurs., which brings the 7-day avg. to 14,532/day.
Jan 5, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Ontario is reporting 2,081 COVID hospitalizations, w. 288 in ICU — both up a lot v. last week.

The 7-day avg. is 14,599 cases/day*.

Deaths are also up, but early to know this is Omicron.

Positivity is 28.1%.

Outbreaks in seniors' homes, hospitals and shelters are +++ spiking. ImageImageImageImage * Ontario's limited (and targeted) testing means the case reports are an extreme undercount, so we have very little idea how this number relates to the level of infection in the province.

Likewise, I'd be wary of making anything of the positivity number after the change.
Dec 31, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Ontario is reporting 177 active outbreaks in seniors' homes (blue) — 135 in LTCHs and 42 in retirement homes. (There's nuance to this number, which I will explain.)

We're also continuing to see outbreaks sharply rise in hospitals (purple).

Source: data.ontario.ca/dataset/ontari… The nuance is that this is a tally of outbreaks as declared and recorded by local health authorities, I don't know for sure if it corresponds one-one with the number of *facilities* w. active outbreaks. V. large facilities may have multiple declared outbreaks.
Dec 31, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Omicron is now hitting Ontario seniors around the rate we were seeing in the general population last week.

By sample date, the 528 Ontarians 70+ positive on Monday were most of any day of the pandemic.

(The 7-day avg. isn't yet a record & 80s and 90+ are lagged more than 70s.) Vaccination and especially boosting should significantly reduce rates of serious illness and death among Ontario seniors, but the main reason Waves 3 and 4 were relatively mild was the vaccine meant fewer very old people got sick in the first place.

Omicron changes that.
Dec 19, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
The Omicron signal is clearest in the vaccinated pop., likely with infections still dating from before last week's provincial actions.

2-dose cases last Sun.: 771
Today: 2,977 (up 386%)

Unvaxxed cases are up 157% in the same period (and are still higher, adjusted for pop.) ... ... this (so far) disproportionate rise in vaccinated cases is first and foremost that Omicron is much much more infectious v. 2 doses than Delta.

A second factor is probably that Omicron is first hitting urban centres that are more vaccinated than the province as a whole...