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The expansion is going to facility construction and beds with permits that last decades. It will define a generation of care.

2/n Source is here: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Docume…
https://twitter.com/EdTubb/status/1512434255388983298We're kind of on a knife's edge:



The fact the hospital census is always incomplete on Sundays and Mondays means there's really not much we can take away from those numbers.



Even though Ontario's 7-day case avg. is down 30% from its reported peak — with all the caveats about our inability to test — today is another record case count for patients 80+.
Nearly 60% of all Ontario's COVID deaths have been in the 80+ age cohort.



The week-over-week % growth in hosp. admissions is slower this week than last — but still going up v. quickly.



Cases (9,706) and positivity (26.7%) are down v. last Mon., but it's v. difficult to tell if that's any kind of signal after the province abandoned general pop. testing — Ontario is not testing for Omicron's general spread, so we shouldn't assume these tell us anything about it.
https://twitter.com/EdTubb/status/1480195912974716929
Here's Ontario's Omicron wave by age, with a pop. adjustment.



On hospitalizations, the Sunday and Monday numbers are typically an incomplete census, with some hospitals not reporting, so this 2,419 is a likely undercount that we'll be able to resolve in a few days.



On hospitalizations, I am personally surprised to see such a spike in ventilations (219 today, up from 112 last Sat.) to go along with ICUs, since we'd been hearing reports that Omicron's disease profile was different esp. in the lungs.



On deaths: The province has a statement on the spike in today's deaths, referring to it as a data catch-up, and suggesting a change in counting methods. 



* On cases and positivity: Since the province is no longer doing general-pop. testing, these numbers can't tell us how Omicron is hitting the general pop. (this includes positivity.)



* Ontario's limited (and targeted) testing means the case reports are an extreme undercount, so we have very little idea how this number relates to the level of infection in the province.
The nuance is that this is a tally of outbreaks as declared and recorded by local health authorities, I don't know for sure if it corresponds one-one with the number of *facilities* w. active outbreaks. V. large facilities may have multiple declared outbreaks.
Vaccination and especially boosting should significantly reduce rates of serious illness and death among Ontario seniors, but the main reason Waves 3 and 4 were relatively mild was the vaccine meant fewer very old people got sick in the first place.