Eddie Zipperer Profile picture
Columnist. Poli Sci Professor.
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Aug 15 8 tweets 2 min read
The new Fox News Poll shows Trump +1 over Harris nationally. BUT it shows Trump with 26% of the Black vote and 52% of the Hispanic vote.

Many are probably asking, “how can he only be up by one?!”

It’s not because they oversampled Dems which is a common belief… 🧵 It’s because there is a massive surplus of Dem votes in California, New York, and Illinois and to a lesser extent other blue states. (I pointed this out in 2016 as well).

Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the election because she won too many surplus votes…