1/13 RIGHT IDEA, WRONG STOCK & TIME–
Roark304 is famous for his $AZO Autozone writeup on VIC.

Most talented investor I ever knew.

In 2002 he hinted at one of the greatest stock opportunities of the past 25 years - $NVDA NVIDIA – while discussing one of his worst errors, 3dfx. 2/13 Roark304 posted as “howardroark” on the old Motley Fool boards.

He noted, “3dfx was a technology dependent graphics processor designer that constantly needed to run 4.2forties just to stay in place on the competitive tech curve.”

1/4 Roark304 was the most talented investor I ever personally met. Genius, pure genius. A very private individual yet extraordinary generous on the Motley Fool boards, particularly in early 2000s.

I don't think Roark304 held on, unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/F_Compounders/status/1840065781146464565

2/4 I can't believe I looked at $AZO mid-2005 but passed. Hindsight in 20/20 but even ignoring what AutoZone has become, it should have been a buy.

"The Co. repurchased 3.2m shares of common stock, 4% of outstanding in one qtr. alone."

1/6 It required a grand total of 6,434 days (17 5/8 years) but my first Mastercard $MA share purchase finally earned "Platinum Elite" 100 Bagger status.

You don't need a lot of money to make a lot of money when you earn a 29.8% CAGR (excluding divvies) over 17+ years. 2/6 Cue the obligatory "survivor bias" image. One must acknowledge an element of luck in "buying right & sitting tight."

$MA IPO'd on 5/21/2006 @ $39 - when value investing was riding high, not growth.

Pity the poor souls who bought Vonage $VG which IPO'd the previous day.

OID Memory Lane:

Value Investors could have made a LOT of money if they listened in 2003 to Bill Nygren opine about "consistent growth in a low interest rate environment" aka Compounders.

How many (or few) can pivot when necessary?

1/17 Too many investors chase concepts instead of real companies. Too many people think the stock market is only for Big Money. Too many investors focus on trading rather than holding really good businesses. 2/17 Here are stock lots, purchase dates, cost bases and current market values for many long-term holdings. Names represent very high % of portfolio value. Not everyone can buy $$$ but many of these individual lots are small $ – & very profitable if you’re committed to holding.

Given all the FinTwit Kool Kids® chatter about 10 Baggers, why not learn from the 10-B master himself, Mr. Peter Lynch, on multi-bagger hunting?

"The Stock Market Hit Parade" from 1994 Page 2 of "The Stock Market Hit Parade" from 1994

$XPEL Conviction Part II: One reason I hold XPEL was that the company was the super rare combination of MicroCap, Asset Lite model, and Market Leader with fast growing TAM.

Lots of good stuff on the @MicroCapClub XPEL board. Here's a 12/2019 post of mine comparing $XPEL to $SBUX $XPEL Reaching Auto Enthusiasts at every income level.

$XPEL (1/4) Senior vs. Junior memes are fun but what's even more fun is seeing XPEL's window tint sales grow quickly. In Q3/20 window (auto+flat glass) were up 79% yoy. In Q2/20 window was up 88% yoy.

These just aren't numbers. These are CLUES. $XPEL (2/4) Sure, XPEL has demonstrated great growth in PPF. But self-healing PPF is a market XPEL literally created and requires high quality patterns (DAP software).

Auto window tint is a market that has been around FOREVER. Auto window TAM is large but slow growing.

XPEL Q3/19 Observations. No more funny $XPEL tweets; let’s get down to serious business! Rebound in China --> tailwind in 2020. Q1/18 China rev = 4.5M; Q2/18 China 3.5M. Wouldn’t be surprised if XPEL prints $18M China rev or more 1H/20. 1H China rebound by itself may account for 8% annual revenue growth in 2020.

1/13 Too many investors throw away their Good Luck.

Since Good Luck in Investing can be very path dependent, this has massive effects on long-term compounding.

https://twitter.com/eboroian/status/1186673973129560065

2/13 But what is Good Luck in Investing? It’s finding yourself in a stock – if you knew the future – that compounds at an impressive rate for a long time. Therefore, today’s price with 20/20 hindsight proved very cheap years from now.

#1 A powerful, thought-provoking podcast. Sean Stannard-Stockton does a wonderful job explaining the benefit of investing in durable moat companies. Inspired an @RealEightTrack TWEET STORM.

https://twitter.com/BobbyKKraft/status/1070350415080828928

#2 Although Ensemble Capital are not microcap investors, Stannard-Stockton notes that microcap investors can look for firms with emerging moats and growing competitive advantages. Find that high ROIC microcap company with a (hopefully) durable advantage!