Author of Thinking Basketball. Podcast. YouTube. Analytics. Cognitive Scientist | Support at https://t.co/lZMRj4Ez8m
May 1, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Quick thread on the fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 and why it continues to be a misleading indicator of impact. Key points:
-We have no cognitive intuition of what a "bad" IFR is
-We anchor to the flu "IFR"
-This creates blindness to (1) spread density (2) non-fatal damage 1/12
As discussed on yesterday’s show about long-term health, there are multiple layers of impact to assess:
-fatalities
-health of survivors
-psychological damage (e.g. health care workers, family)
-economic disruption
Some perspective on Andre Iguodala making the Hall of Fame:
The HOF is a museum to celebrate basketball history. It is not a pyramid of the top players in NBA history.
That is why Vlade Divac and Dino Radja were inducted as players. They have 1 combined All-Star nod. 1/9
KC Jones never made an All-Star team, but he won a bunch of titles with Bill Russell. He was inducted as a player with career averages of 7 points and 4 assists. Iguodala is leagues more accomplished as an individual. 2/9
Jun 3, 2019 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Kawhi had monster scoring numbers in Game 2 (34 pts, 63% TS), but it was one of his worst defensive games of the playoffs. A mini-thread...
(Apologies in advance to Kawhi fans for my repeated pushback against his booming narrative, but that's kind of my thing.) 1/9
In Thinking Basketball, I wrote about how "Scoring Blindness" leads us to overrate iso scoring. But because of it, we *also* overrate on-ball defense, where Kawhi excels. People then take it as a given that "his defense was elite" and stack credit when he scores big in games. 2/9
May 30, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Many have mentioned this stat after my video on the Giannis Rules & I want to explain why it's a bit misleading. Kawhi's an excellent man defender & he did well in this matchup (as noted in the video). But scheme and sample size are a large issue, as you'll see... 1/5
First, we know matchup data isn't exactly perfect. It doesn't always capture who we think of as "defending" a player when an action occurs. Here Giannis hits a 3 "versus" Siakam, even though Pascal helps off and is then screened & Toronto doesn't mind Giannis shooting this. 2/5
Jul 21, 2018 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
In response to some questions about passer rating, here’s a thread about the history of valuing assists, how passer rating was born and what it captures. (Links at the end) #thinkingbasketball 1/14
I’ve always been disappointed in assists by themselves - they need context when used to measure impact or skill. Assist:turnover ratio was often cited in the past, but it’s not always helpful. 2/14
