Politics/Elections. Every D is better than any R. Supporter of ALL Democrats, Big tent party advocate, Pragmatic progressive, Hate purity tests. #VoteBlue
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Nov 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Election Eve Megathread!
I’m predicting a wave, here’s why 🧵👇
First: What is wave election? It’s when 1 party does 5+ points better than opponents, getting big base turnout, vast majority undecided, that overwhelms opposition. 2008, 2010, 2014 + 2018 were waves. 2 D’s, 2 R’s.
A wave doesn’t just appear, there are signs before.
1 Polls GCB +5 towards 1 party over other.
2 Party base excited
3 Fundraising swamps opponents
4 Nonpartisan ratings orgs move more races to 1 party than other
5 Reach seats come in play late, expanding battlefield.
Oct 8 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
First, let me be clear: I’m NOT predicting this now and current polling data does NOT support it, but IF a blue wave does form, we shouldn’t be all that shocked either.
Why? A wave doesn’t just appear. It builds up over time and there are signs to look for beforehand.👇🧵 /11. Average +5 or more generic ballot for 1 party. 2. Party’s candidates have fundraising advantage over opponents. 3. Reach seats come in play late, expanding battlefield. 4. Party enthusiasm is high. 5. Nonpartisan ratings orgs shift more races towards 1 party, than other. /2
Jun 20 • 40 tweets • 17 min read
My election theory
First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls + also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1
Let’s go back to the Obama years first and what changed between now and then. Democrats only cared about the presidency, but Republicans cared about all levers of power. That’s why the GOP was inches away from a 2/3 legislature majority to rewrite the constitution. /2
Nov 15, 2023 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
It took me hours + multiple sources to try to untangle, so I figure maybe other people might be interested. Like + share if you’ve enjoyed this very long tweet thread.
Are you confused about how we got here for the NY redistricting mess? You’re not alone. Here’s what happened 🧵
This all started in 2014 when NY voters approved a constitutional amendment taking redrawing maps out of the sole hands of the legislature and into the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC). The process of this committee is outlined in the next tweet. /2
