Wow!

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has had both the most extreme and most accurate forecasts of the developing El Niño. But this forecast, just released, is so extreme it's hard to believe I'm seeing it.

3.0°C by October.
3.2°C by November.

Wow!
bom.gov.au/climate/model-… And yes, they need a bigger y-axis. Their graphic maxes out at 2.8°C.

@LeonSimons8

What's happening to Antarctic sea ice extent isn't getting enough global media attention. And by "enough" I mean none. Nothing. This ongoing and dramatic collapse is completely absent from today's news.

Yesterday's sea ice extent was 4.02σ below the 1991-2023 mean (1-in-34,000). This is an anomaly chart.

By collapse I mean that the rate of increase of sea ice has collapsed. Sorry for the confusing language. The sea ice is increasing, just at a record slow rate in the modern era.

I confess, this is terrifying. Takes my breath away terrifying. I am out of superlatives to describe the present moment. And tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow? No idea.

Data: climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily… 1/x

Background.

Every day since 1982, a global 60S-60N SST has been recorded. The first 30 years of that was 1982-2011. We use that as the baseline (30 years is standard). With that data, for each day we can compute the 1982-2011 mean temperature and standard deviation.

How many ancient plants decayed to create the gas for you to drive to Starbucks so you could buy that grande mocha frappuccino?

To make one liter of gas it takes about 25 tons of ancient organic material, about the same as the amount of wheat grown in a 10 acre field. Additionally, there is the carbon required to mine and process the stuff that goes into manufacturing your car, the roads & other infrastructure, the petrol station, the Starbucks store, its machines & cups, etc.

My simple thought on Truss as PM: I am now convinced that the UK is going to be the first "first world" country to completely implode and collapse, and that its going to happen very soon, maybe by next summer. I have no idea what this will trigger worldwide, but it won't be good. CNBC: Deutsche Bank says risk of a 'sterling crisis' is rising as Truss becomes UK prime minister.
cnbc.com/2022/09/05/uk-…

I apologize for tweeting so much about this particular heatwave, but OMFG, it just gets more terrifying with every GFS run. We are now seeing widespread 115-120 towards the end of next week. Source:
tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model…

1/3
Wildfires and waste fires have been producing carbon monoxide that's been cannibalizing hydroxyl radicals, so that existing methane lasts longer.

The recent spike in global methane is fully explained by having the atmospheric half-life get 17% longer over the last 3 years. 2/3
I am just guessing on the rate at which the half-life of methane has been increasing, there is no science to back up this guess. However, if wildfires and waste fires are using up the hydroxyl, then the half-life must be increasing. It's just a question of how much.

Knowing we are doomed inspires me to live a life of service and generosity -- little things don't matter and everything is little compared to the collapse of the planet. Not engaging in a life filled with outrage leaves me energy for causes that support what still can be helped. 2/
Among others, in the last 3 years I have volunteered for:

Planned Parenthood
Santa Barbara Zoo (elephant docent)
Public Health vax clinics
Public Television (producer/director)
Santa Barbara Police Dept.
Freedom to Choose Project (prison reform)
Santa Barbara Film Festival