Every day is an adventure in waking up to see if we've suddenly decided to send US troops to annex the Western Hebrides for their strategically significant cod stocks. Cod Wars 2: The Empire Strikes Back.

Now we have text for the inaugural address, a few thoughts on foreign policy content:

1) the money quote is this one. Trump wants to be seen as a peacemaker (and a nobel prize probably wouldn't hurt). Whether he can do it is a different question... 2) the "end wars" theme runs through the address. He highlights the Gaza ceasefire, and repeatedly rips the previous administration for "stumbling into a continuing catalogue of catastrophic events abroad.”

The most tragic thing about this situation is that it was visible from a long way off, but notions of an ideal victory or miraculous breakthrough helped to stymy the steps that could have prevented us from getting to this point.

economist.com/europe/2024/10… .@ka_grieco and I wrote ten months ago about the need to pivot hard to a defense strategy that conserves manpower in Ukraine. Instead, we got more failed counteroffensives and whatever the Kursk operation is.

foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-uk…

Yesterday, US envoy to NATO argued that Europe should buy US weapons, not European ones. It's a short-sighted policy that could undermine Europe's developing defense industrial base.

But @StimsonCenter's own @nevadajoan has a new paper out that tackles this issue! 🧵 The paper argues that: "A more Europe-centric defense has historically faced three barriers... inadequate funding... concerns over sovereignty... & fear of a negative U.S. response. The first two roadblocks are shrinking," though the third remains.

stimson.org/2024/eu-defens…

A notable paragraph in this article from such mainstream authors; just a few months ago, this viewpoint was nearly beyond the pale in Washington.

reader.foreignaffairs.com/2023/04/13/the… Look, Im not saying I wrote basically this article late last year, but…

foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukrain…