Steve Analyst Profile picture
Political Analyst, Most overrated threader on twitter, Citizen of the Universe, Normally spell it: emperor
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27 Sep
Judging by the number of newspapers that have started editorialising for EU membership in Norway this year, added to the fact the Liberals have come out of it and the Green's aren't against, we could see another referendum this decade.
Furthermore, Hulda Holtvedt, the influential national spokesperson for the Greens Party’s youth organization has also said "We must be willing to give up a bit of sovereignty in order to achieve committed climate policies. For Norway, that means joining the EU.”
Last year the youth wing of the Conservative Party passed a motion (or whatever the equivalent is) suggesting the party actively work towards EU membership in the next parliamentary term.
Read 11 tweets
24 Sep
1. I think some people are about to find out that we didn’t join the Common Market for the trade. (Thread) Image
2. The truth is, as the curtain on the British Empire began to fall, the UK were not quite ready to step down from the main stage of world affairs.
3. The neutrality of some of the EFTA and Commonwealth countries meant that neither could provide a solution to our loss of influence, and it was felt that the economic draw of superpowers could further undermine it. Image
Read 40 tweets
12 Sep
When they said we would have a "British Model" where we decided "what bits we keep, which parts we lose", and it would be "tailored to our own needs", they forgot to mention it would be tailored entirely to the ideological needs of politicians and sod our businesses.
Apparently the important thing about trade deals is that you negotiate them in terms of political purity and what the general public want.
Apparently if Northern Ireland's businesses are going to be negatively affected, what's most important is superficially what the English people want.
Read 15 tweets
11 Sep

The problem is both political and legal: the failure of the UK to sign it in good faith and the legal implications.

There is clear evidence of the UK's bad faith. Steve Baker is on the record saying he was convinced to vote for it by being told they could change it later.
Did they forget that @SteveBakerHW was on record saying they shouldn't bother reading it because they were going to change it later?

What a coincidence that they are now not going to implement the bits they don't like, and arguing that it's because it was done in bad faith...
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
I've opened up the UK description of the benefits of the Japan FTA, and the first thing on the list looks very much like the UK signed away rights that the EU recognised and protected.

I'll have to wait to see the text, but it's almost guaranteed.
They were part of the provisions Japan brought to the EU.
I don't see them being a good thing or a bad thing, but as with the way they present CPTPP, they are jumping up and down and not really explaining the facts.
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
Would an extension be breaching the WA in a very specific and limited way?
I only ask because if I had decided to arrogantly and stupidly declare I didn't need an extension until the deadline for requesting was gone, what could I do?
I could manufacture some "unforeseen" issue with the original deal that would limit progress. Something I could blame the other party for...
Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
Someone actually tweeted an article about the Lord Kilmuir letter the other day. It has apparently got some exposure recently by that bastion of truth The Daily Express. (Thread)…
The letter starts with the Lord Chancellor replying to Edward Heath to say that he agreed with him that there were important constitutional issues involved.
He talks about how we would take laws in, even under QMV where we may have voted against them, and how it might be implemented.
Read 22 tweets
24 Aug
Brexit is like a religion. For example, take a look at Tim Montgomerie's claim that: “We were told we were joining just a common market.”


When further pressure is put on this doctrine with the knowledge that the UK had debated it since the early 1960s, and they will argue that it was a long time before we entered.
Challenge it further with this televised debate from 1970 and then it becomes “It was only ever sold on the economic benefits”, “The political side was rarely ever mentioned”, or it was “denied by Edward Heath”.
Read 43 tweets
11 Jul
"As easy as we want it to be"
Who would have thought that insisting we weren't going to align to certain rules was going to lose us jobs?

Certainly not Dominic Cummings, who demonstrates *again* a total lack of understanding about global trade relations.

Let's let him near our military next! Image
Read 4 tweets
10 Jul
Shall we do this? I think we shall... (Thread)
There is no question that is a lot of GDP.
And if we go by market size, that is nearly 60 million people more in terms of population than the EU.

This is not to be sniffed at.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jul
Remainers: You will have to make a decision to put the border in the Irish sea or have a hard border.
Leavers: No, no, no, no.

Three years later...

Leavers: We're putting a border in the Irish sea, and if only Remainers had put some effort into exploring a solution.
We said, this is the only solution to one of the biggest sticking points in the process so far and we were ignored.
Now we are told, we should have been putting forward more things to the people that just flat out ignored the fact we would have to make difficult decisions.
Read 7 tweets
3 Jul
One of the first submissions to the Australian UK FTA process.

It's not common in FTA consultations to read outright accusations of the illegal activities of a negotiating country,

Accusations of "extortion" and "demanding money with menaces" even less so.
But to see "extortion" in *two* trade deal submissions is really going some!
When you see "There is doubt that UK authorities can be trusted to keep treaties in good faith", you know you're in trouble.
Read 5 tweets
30 Jun
Shall we declare June 30th national 'claim we're not racist and pretend the immigration arguments made in the referendum didn't really happen' day?
For the politicians that have got past this, we were there in 2016. We remember what was said. We remember how it was sold.
If pretending to yourself that this is really all about fairness helps you sleep at night, we can dedicate an entire day where we all pretend that lie is true.
Read 5 tweets
17 Jun
Apparently when George heard that it was an ambitious trade deal, he actually thought the word ambitious was relevant.

So to mark this Australia announcements, let's ignore the flannel and introduce some hard facts.
Our main international airport has limited freight capacity.
Consequentially, many companies rely on the Single Market to access European airports that have much greater dedicated freight.
Read 20 tweets
17 Jun
@trussliz @Barry_Humphries @Birmo @AusHCUK You can give it as much flannel as you like, Liz, but Australia do not see this deal as significant.
@trussliz @Barry_Humphries @Birmo @AusHCUK The EU deal is the one they consider far more important in terms of size of trade and type of trade.
@trussliz @Barry_Humphries @Birmo @AusHCUK They also see this "great new chapter" as a great new chapter to be more competitive in the EU against us.
Read 12 tweets
15 Jun
OK, don't be too hard on Darren here. (Thread)
When I was at university, one of my best friend was black.
I never saw him having any trouble when he was out with just me, or out with a group of our student friends.
Read 18 tweets
4 Jun
@Scott12Colin You said it would be common sense to have a skilled lawyer check/advise.
And having more closely examined it recently, you considered he did do that.

@Scott12Colin Just yesterday you were suggesting that they were putting arguments with the logical coherence of a 5 years old.



@Scott12Colin Today you said it had been carefully crafted to head off any line of attack.

One of his 2 arguments for leaving has a huge logic error repeated twice.

Read 10 tweets
3 Jun
@Scott12Colin If you separate the first sentence there is a logical orphan for the first sentence and a single logic summation at the end.

Are we now saying Dominic Cummings argues like someone with a mental age of 5?
@Scott12Colin That his mind has not developed to create logical constructs and everything he says is just statements with no particular cohesion?

That he doesn't understand the correct use of summation?
@Scott12Colin Then he still doesn't say it, and if he did, the problem with his logic isn't what he doesn't say, it's what he does say.

Changing this would suggest he changes his logic by the conclusion. So he's all over the place if he meant that.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
@Scott12Colin It's not incorrect. Logic does not change.

No you haven't answered it. Your "logic" involves something he never says but you infer, and it involves him hinging two of his arguments on the most unlikely scenario possible.
@Scott12Colin The scenario where although there is a big risk he has been exposed to Covid and believes there is a distinct probability he has it. He then goes into isolation with his wife, a situation not associated with catching new things, and then by massive coincidence...
@Scott12Colin He manages, against the odds, to develop something that has the symptoms of Covid but is, in fact, not Covid. The most amazing coincidence in the wold that he left work thinking he had something and was about to come down with something with the same symptoms that wasn't it.
Read 5 tweets
31 May
1. Hi @BBCChrisMorris, I’ve been looking over this @BBCRealityCheck and I was wondering if you could help me with two questions I have?

2. Dominic made it apparent that he believed that the guidance was flexible enough to act as he did.
3. What guidance specifically? Thankfully, he read that out.
Read 34 tweets
28 May
@GeocacherB Yes, but that's not quite the same thing. I wouldn't want to be joined with India, but that doesn't mean we couldn't find common identity or common consent. It just means culturally we are considerably different.
@GeocacherB I am absolutely sure that years ago they would argue that the tribes couldn't be united, that they were too different, and here we are. All united and not thinking twice about it.
@GeocacherB They probably said this Island couldn't be united, and yet that happened. Forcibly, but look at NI and then try and understand national identity as a result of that.
Read 5 tweets