.@Max_Fisher wrote up an analysis of some alarming trends in global protest in the @nytimes today. Some folks have asked me about it. Here I add some context, caveats, and implications to Max's analysis. 🧵 nytimes.com/2022/09/30/wor… First, the claims in the piece about the decline in protest effectiveness is based on data with a specific set of scope conditions. These data look specifically at campaigns trying to oust incumbent national leaders or achieve territorial independence.

I see some discussion on here about whether this paper contradicts the 3.5% rule. The answer is: not directly, but it does provide further caution in interpreting the 3.5% rule in a way that prioritizes mass mobilization over all else.

https://twitter.com/EricaChenoweth/status/1552403014585143297

For those unfamiliar: the 3.5% rule refers to the observation that between 1900 and 2006, revolutionary campaigns didn't fail after mobilizing 3.5% of the population in a peak event.

Excited to share this new article published today at @PLOSONE with @z_marks & Andrew Hocking. The paper compares movement strategies based on mass mobilization vs. targeted mobilization. Here's a brief 🧵 on how we did this & what we find. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… In the paper, we develop a computational model that focuses on the interactive relationship between civilians, police, and influential pillars of a regime's support base--such as social, political, and economic elites.

Four years ago, it was clear that there would have to be sustained nonviolent resistance to Trump's agenda, skilled & determined organizing at every level, & record voter turnout to contain Trump's worst excesses & prevent him from staying in power after his term expired. 1/ Over the past 4 yrs, we've seen the largest demo in US history (Women's March 2017), rapid response to the Muslim Ban & family separation, broadest protest in US history (School Walkouts 2018), largest+most sustained mass mobilization in US history (BLM 2020), & more. 2/

It is time for Americans from all walks of like to recognize four key things: (1) Trump is an aspiring autocrat, who will seize power and overturn the results of this election if he can. He does not plan to leave office on Jan. 20. 1/ (2) He is the incumbent president, meaning for the next 60+ days he commands the awesome powers of the presidency. He will use every lever of institutional and political power at his disposal to bring about this outcome. 2/

This week I was shopping for a card for a friend whose marriage ended recently. There were 3 aisles of cards in the store celebrating birthdays, graduations, weddings, anniversaries. But the "Sympathy," "Thinking of You," & "Get Well Soon" sections were completely empty. They were sold out on every aisle, of every brand. There were hardly any "Blank" cards, either. I felt overcome with sadness at how many people are suffering right now--from loss of loved ones, loss of a job, loss of opportunity or expectation, loss of connection.

The NRA (& its allies') reaction to corporations removing discounts from NRA members is a breathtakingly textbook display of the adage that "when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression." 1/

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They are not preventing you from buying their tickets. They are not preventing you from boarding their planes. They are not telling you where you can sit on the plane. They are not telling you that you don't belong in the city you're flying from, or the city you're flying to. 2/