Biotech idea of the day: Chemomab Therapeutics ($CMMB). I previously wrote about $CMMB but I wanted to revisit because they are now on the cusp of a massive inflection point, where the stock could trade substantially up or down based on how they obtain funding for their phase 3 trial. It is also an extreme example of the current liquidity crisis in biotech – there is excellent, best in class data, very limited competition, and it is phase 3 ready in a billion dollar indication and yet the stock trades at <$30 MC. Given the scarcity value and strength of the data for their lead asset I am hoping that this catalyst will reveal the true value of the company through partnerships. Importantly, this stock is a microcap that is very high risk. I have a long position, and this is not investment advice. The whole writeup is long, so I have captured a detailed version on Medium that might be easier to read. Enjoy! For those more familiar with the story, or just don’t have the time, the twitter / X somewhat abbreviated version might suffice to get the point across. medium.com/@ottoerik/chem…

A 🧵covering some long-form thoughts on biotech stocks going into 2025: As many have already highlighted, biotech has underperformed for years. My view this is mostly a factor of overcrowding in modalities and indications, the low hanging scientific fruit being mostly picked, and to a lesser extent poor public sentiment and drug pricing concerns. $XBI $IBB My best guess is this recent swoon in the last few weeks might have more to do with uncertainty around M&A and broader market (especially tech) valuation concerns. Some of the big biotech M&A targets are expensive in my eyes, but I suspect the lack of big deals is driven by uncertainty on policy. Big pharma was probably waiting for political gridlock resulting in status quo, but that's not what we got. With a republican sweep, we don't know who will be confirmed and what their policies will be, so BP is probably figuring they might as well wait a few more months to find out the new admin’s healthcare policy before doing M&A.

Biotech idea of the day: $GLTO. First of all a warning: This is a microcap company, and could be subject to extreme dilution. Tread very carefully. I’ve had my eye on Galecto for a while, as I suspected the IPF trial would fail and have thought the liver cirrhosis drug was interesting for over a year. There is definitely risk here given how distressed the stock is, but upside could be significant.

Biotech Idea of the Day: $OTIC. This co. has a number of injectable treatments for the ear, including ones for hearing loss and tinnitus that both read out mid-2022. Market cap is ~$105 M (including pre-funded warrants) and they have $98 M cash on hand as of the end of Q2. 1/18 Both these readouts could demonstrate proof of concept in indications with significant $ potential, (OPPY has $860 M peak sales for tinnitus, hearing loss believed to be >$1 billion), so the company’s valuation could be a multiple of where it is now if either succeeds. 2/18

Biotech thread of the day; $INFI. This company has a first-in-class, oral, once-daily, immuno-oncology development candidate that selectively inhibits PI3K-gamma. I think the valuation of this company is not reflective of the massive market opportunity for this drug. 1/10 Today $INFI showed positive results showing 85% increase in response rates and 57% vs 14% DCR in PD-L1 low patients with urothelial cancer. As this is a controlled study, I believe this demonstrates that the drug is active in this PD-L1 negative population. 2/10

1. I’m embarking on a tweet storm explaining why I think $GBT is significantly undervalued relative to analyst estimates (>10 with PTs of $60-$80 / share). I will cover 1) Efficacy, 2) Safety and 3) Market Potential. First efficacy. 2. $GBT MOA has some similarity to Hydroxyurea (which increases Fetal Hb) and $BLUE (creates % of Hb that doesn’t sickle). High % of occupied Hb (or fetal, or unsickling Hb) reduces sickling.