Last cycle it was obvious to most smart traders that LUNA would collapse, however what was important was getting smart on it to time it as a lot of people got crushed shorting it too early. This was a trade of maximum opportunity

Same thing is happening with DATs/MSTR this cycle Not all DATs are the same; LUNA/UST were both clear 0s once it unwound.

Many DATs may have softer landing spots. However, once their ability to buy disappears, you’re left with a lot of people overinvested and overlevered with the principle force driving these assets up gone

x.com/i/article/1940… I one shotted this draft and barely edited so hopefully it's decent 🤷‍♂️

“Everything depends on macro far more than we’d like to admit— several risk factors there that will be important to watch for”

Unfortunately this is where we are:
-unemployment accelerating (this was the biggest risk)
-Fed once again behind the curve
-Middle East
-Kamala rally

https://twitter.com/evan_ss6/status/1741883253001257067

Many smart people think Sahm Rule is a fade and growth reaccelerates

I don’t really know

All I know is, if the Fed put does hit (imo much lower), I want to be able to add significantly

As always, trade your own port. Always good to re-evaluate and cut what you don’t need

Interesting observation

Even the most die hard long term bulls I know are neutral to bearish now

Grayscale unlock, summer launch, "tough sell to TradFi", Gox and government coins, NVDA price action

Range break (one way or the other) will be spicy in a way this has been a strong theme of market starting with 2023

lots of walls of worry, lots of greeding for lower. When we were in 15s people wanted 12-14. After we nuked from 30 to 25, people wanted 20-22. After the ETF launch nuke to 38, people wanted 35. And in April move to 56, everyone was focused on 52-55.

Most people simply don’t have the fortitude to keep grinding and stick to the process of finding edge and betting appropriate size after they’ve drawn down a bunch

They start getting emotional, they revenge trade. They tilt. They don’t internalize that your past decisions are gone and every passing moment is an opportunity to make the right play. Their mistakes compound instead of just washing away. This is the surest way to eventually take yourself out of the game and zero out.

If you can’t deal with this you have 2 options:
1) grow some balls
2) accept being someone that mostly hits singles. there’s nothing inherently wrong with this, it’s a good way to make a living if you’re good at it.

For me, I had a decade+ of training to not tilt and to discard emotions when playing games for big money. This is an acquired skill that takes time and experience— when I was 18-19-20 I didn’t have this, and started torching off $$ as a result, making the uphill climb to get back even more arduous. The logical part of your brain knows you can’t give anything away to your opponents who won’t do the same in return. This is your best defense. Study the 2004 Greek National team.

Then you can move on to offense.

Remilio. btw what I mean by “grow some balls” is learn to take losses like a man and move on, not to size up and be retarded

Tilt is a feminine trait. If you are a man you should not be tilting full stop. Study stoicism.

Life upgrades worth the $

Okay so you've won forever via crypto, and all of a sudden your budget has expanded beyond your wildest dreams. Most importantly, you're a big baller now. This is how you lock in... a thread 🧵

👇 You must realize is you spend 1/3 of your life sleeping. And if you're a crypto trader, you probably spend another 1/3 of your life staring at charts in bed. A great trader needs his sleep. So you need to invest in a top mattress.

A good 𝐇𝐚̈𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬 will run you about $70-100k

Updates: how I'm thinking about the market here

Seeing a lot of overthinking and mental gymnastics on the feed. Some charts:

1) SOLETH daily
2) ETHBTC daily
3) Stablecoins mcap
4) Election odds

Feels like alts still extreme PvP-- can see this in the way they are trading in their BTC and ETH pairs, and observing the halt in stablecoin mcap increasing. New alts, both VC funded coins and memes are being created at a very fast rate. There are tons of large alt unlocks over the next year in addition to whatever other TGEs happen in the mean time.

BTC has benefited from the ETF not only giving it a stable-ish (so far) source of fresh inflows, but also helped clear much of the Grayscale (GBTC) unlock, about 626k coins (this was about 3.37% of the supply ex Satoshi's coins). A decent chunk of this was in bankruptcy estates like FTX and Genesis. About 4.5 months in, ~54% of this has flowed out leaving ~287k BTC. BTCUSD traded roughly 25k (ETF filing) -> 48k (post approval) -> 38k (post Grayscale unlock) -> 67.6k now 4.5 months post launch.

ETH now going through that same thing after last minute approval. This will unlock fresh money flows like it did with BTC, and also unlock ~2.97MM ETH in Grayscale's ETHE. This is about 2.47% of the supply. This is a smaller unlock than its BTC counterpart. ETHE is now trading at a 1.37% discount to NAV, with 5 trading days between 1.28 and 1.67% discount. The narrow discount gives many would-be sellers the opportunity to sell now very close to par. For reference, this vehicle trades low 9 figures USD volume a day.

General summer slowless/low volumes to be expected -> new supply dynamics are of increasing importance. Still unknown when ETH ETF will launch, could be late June/early July, or the S1 process could take longer. Broadly speaking, I think longer is better as (1) it gives more time for lead up which the BTC ETF had as the approval was priced at 70-95% for months and (2) it would allow us to skip the boring summer months. Have written numerous long form posts on how I'm thinking about the ETH ETF, will link below.

Will want to see stablecoin mcap generally trending up again, along with BTCUSD price breaking out above 70k before thinking harder about alts. There will always be select winners in the chop but generally expect the moves to be smaller and the rotations to be quicker (PvP things). Eyes on the new launches widely expected in June, and of course BTCUSD and ETHUSD.

Macro remains important as we enter the window where Fed cuts are being priced, CPI/PCE, jobs and GDP numbers important, and big election in November. Trump's polling including in several key swing states has improved, and as such so have his betting odds. The conviction on all 34 counts was largely priced in and only moved the market slightly.

Remember: Giving market color here largely based on data, facts and circumstances. Expressing my opinion free of charge, may be wrong, views subject to change as time passes. Welcome to disagree, no need to be upset if we disagree. Not investment advice.


yeah I’m bullish on select things, bearish on most things with poor supply dynamics

I know that seems incredibly obvious, but is it reflected in your actual portfolio right now? Worth thinking about and decluttering

Some interesting tidbits re: staking in Blackrock's S1
1) centralization risks posed by LSTs
2) description around how staking ETH isn't risk free
3) can't claim airdrops (would be unlikely to get any holding vanilla ETH / not solo staking)
4) description of CB case/Wells Notice





The outcomes of these proceedings, as well as ongoing and future regulatory actions, have had a material adverse effect on the digital asset industry as a whole and on the price of ether, and may alter, perhaps to a materially adverse extent, the nature of an investment in the Shares and/or the ability of the Trust to continue to operate.

Re: “SOL ETF soon”

Seeing a lot of misinformed opinions about how this is next. It’s not. BTC and ETH will remain in a class of their own.

SEC relied on a ~32 month sample period for correlation analysis between spot and CME futures. Given SOL CME futures do not even exist yet, my base case is SOL spot ETF will take at least 3 years.

(Not a forecast on SOLETH, which has far more factors than just ETFs—just reality) So many replies “but this time is different”

I don’t think it is, but even if it is, notice “my base case is”

Leaves room for other things to happen, but this is the modal outcome iho.

Quick thread on Ethereum supply dynamics:
(1) ETH Staking
(2) Gas Usage
(3) Exchange Balances
(4) ETH in Smart Contracts
(5) Restaking, Liquid Restaking, and Eigenlayer

🧵👇 (1) Starting with total ETH staking, this is in an enormous uptrend and sitting right about at ATHs

This is in the face of the largest unstake ever from Celsius/Figment, about 573,000 ETH