Trump's #DealOfTheCentury is not going to look like what you expect a peace plan to look like. Here are some sensible ways we can think about the plan before jumping to conclusions. 👇
1. Don't dismiss it out of hand just because it's Trump. A broken clock is right twice a day. And previous clocks that looked extremely polished and sophisticated actually turned out to be spectacularly broken. Let's try to focus on its merits.
2. Recognise that while two states might be desirable, it's not a solution to the conflict. In fact, be sceptical about whether *anything* can "solve" the conflict, so don't measure it by the yardstick of the fairytale about the Rose Lawn handshake and the happily ever after.
What will happen after Israel's elections on 17 September? Here are the only logical scenarios. (They all sound unlikely to inconceivable.) #Israelex19v2 👇
1. Likud and other right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties (possibly including Otzma) win 61 seats, without Liberman. They squeeze Netanyahu, but in the end there's a narrow religious-nationalist coalition. Netanyahu stays.
2. Likud and other right-wing parties fall short of 61, but win plurality of "recommendations" for PM. Liberman buckles and joins the same right-wing government that Israel could have had after April's vote. Netanyahu stays.
Should Israel annex the #JordanValley? Opposition says territory must remain in Israeli hands forever, but: there's a difference between annexing strategic territory as a process of DIVERGENCE (separating from the Palestinians) and as part of CONVERGENCE.
Is Israel, despairing of the Palestinians, unilaterally setting its borders by taking what the territory it needs for defence and renouncing what it doesn't? Or is annexation a prelude to annexing the whole West Bank and drawing circles around the Palestinians you don't want?
This is a distinction the opposition could have drawn, but hasn't. Separation vs. Entanglement. Instead Blue and White tells Netanyahu: a) that was our idea, b) we don't think you're serious. #Israelex19v2
This brand of Palestinian nationalism involves such mental gymnastics to force history to fit your ideology.
But it's obvious why Abbas indulges in this historical revisionism. The basic Palestinian nationalist argument is that the Arabs were here first, and the Jews are foreign colonialists. I.e., they accept that it MATTERS who was here first. That being indigenous is a trump card.
Then the Jews come along and present indisputable archeological evidence that there was a flourishing Jewish civilisation here decades before Islam or the Arab conquest.
<THREAD> Buried in yesterday's news: the Knesset voted AGAINST recognising the #YazidiGenocide perpetrated by Islamic State. Why?
The #YazidiGenocide vote fell 58-38 along clear party lines. Netanyahu's coalition voted against. The opposition mostly voted in favour. The Arab Joint List--they weren't even in the room.
Deputy FM Tzipi Hotovely explained the official line: "We as a government cannot agree to this bill... until there's a UN resolution on the matter." (This must be the first time Israel is waiting for instructions from the UN for matters of policy.)
<Thread👇> How does the @INSSIsrael Plan propose to redraw the #Israeli🇮🇱-#Palestinian🇵🇸 map? (N.B.: This is NOT a proposal for a peace treaty, but a back-up action plan for Israel to start separating from the Palestinians if final-status negotiations prove impossible.)
1/ The basis is Areas A + B from Oslo (40% of the West Bank). B might be expanded to include Palestinian "spillover" into C. PA security control over Area B, as in A. This is basis for a future Palestinian state, and possibly a Palestinian state in temporary borders.
2/ 25% of West Bank from Area C allocated for Palestinian economic development & int'l effort for industrialisation and building. Security and planning responsibility in Israel's hands, to be transferred incrementally to PA. Territorial contiguity, new transportational network.
Corbyn didn’t mention his apparent visit to Auschwitz when he signed the @HolocaustUK Educational Trust Book (when he didn’t mention Jews or antisemitism either). Not in either Holocaust Memorial Day statement as leader of the opposition. (picture: @jeremycorbyn) 3/