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Josh Putnam Profile picture
Josh Putnam
@FHQ
Political scientist and consultant specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC.
Oct 12, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This criticism strikes on some level me as unfair. Is the line long? Yep. But it is the first day of 19 days of early voting in Gwinnett County, GA, a county that is offering a record 9 early voting locations this year.
gwinnettdailypost.com/local/gwinnett…
1/
 The true test of any suppressive element here is not the first day when enthusiasm is going to bring loads of folks to the polls. That test comes on day 2 or 3 and/or day 19 or November 3. If the lines are like this throughout then something is wrong.
2/
Oct 11, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Not to be flip in response, but more polls. It'll take more Ohio polls showing Biden ahead. It would take a Biden +9 survey in the Buckeye state to flip it to him @FHQ. More realistically, it'll take a steady stream of modest Biden advantages to do it.
This bigger issue is that Ohio is close. No matter whether Ohio turns blue or stays red in Nov, the Buckeye state is close in the polls. And if we're talking about Ohio as among the most competitive states next month, then Biden is already in good shape.
frontloadinghq.com/2020/10/the-el…
Mar 2, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So Buttigieg is out. #winnowing

He leaves behind 26 pledged delegates.
That 26 includes 8 at-large or PLEO delegates. Five in Iowa and three in New Hampshire. Those Buttigieg statewide delegate slots will now be proportionally reallocated to candidates above 15% statewide and are still active at the time of selection.
frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2020-democra…
Aug 27, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
There is an argument that early superdelegate influence may decrease in 2020 following the DNC's passage of this new rules package, but I don't think this is it. 1/
This idea — that there would be no superdelegate count because of the rules changes — was something I’ve previously countered. 2/
frontloading.blogspot.com/2018/06/third-…
Jul 10, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Idaho Democrats Announce Shift from "Unwieldy" Caucuses to State-Funded Presidential Primary for 2020
frontloading.blogspot.com/2018/07/idaho-… There will be a significant decrease in the number of caucuses in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination process.

If you're keeping track at home, there were 14 Democratic caucus *states* in 2016. 9 of those 14 have made efforts toward primaries for 2020 already.