GW3 review — I watched the full games or at least the extended highlights #FPL

Arsenal vs Brighton

— Red card changed the game and you can see that from the xG chart from @markstatsbot

— Arsenal were in complete control of the game before Rice red card. I think Brighton were too hesitant even to try to play. After the red card, Brighton got the confidence to play. Arsenal also got chances on the counter. Became an open game after the red.

— As expected, Arsenal game too controlled in general. Great for their defense.

— Saka and Odegaard link up on the right side will get them goals. Saka looking sharp every time he is on the ball. Saka got an assist and could have had more returns.

— Havertz is a great pick. I think his Mins are fine even when Jesus is available. Got a goal and could have had more.

— Brighton playing high line is dangerous. Don’t like this strategy for their CS chances. Hinshelwood is a weakness on their left side. I am not convinced by their center backs as well. Dunk mistake led to Havertz goal.

— Minteh taking set pieces. Good asset. Subbed off at 70. But, he is good at 5.5m if he keeps on starting.

— Pedro got the goal. Played 90 when other attackers were subbed off. Great asset at 5.5/5.6m. On pens and xMins good. He is one of their leaders now. I expect regular starts and high xMins. Leicester vs Villa

— Villa with a comfortable win. But, I expected better from Villa.

— Watkins could/should have scored. Looked okay. But, was subbed off at 60. That is a concern.

— Duran too good to not get minutes. I think it will be as sub appearance. But, I don’t know how that eventually impacts Watkins/Rogers mins. Right now Watkins not fully fit. Easy for Emery to take him off. But, eventually you would expect Watkins to play 90 mins.

— Rogers positioning not bad. He is up there around the attacks. But, it feels like sometimes attacks go around him and he is just there uninvolved. Only 1 chance created and 0 shots in an easy fixture not a good look. He is still okay at 5m.

— Bailey injured. Not good for Villa.

— Villa coming up with innovative set piece routines. Great to see. Don’t know how that translates into FPL points because the set piece taker at times makes the hockey assist.

— Leicester not a strong team for me. Keep an eye out for Madividi. Don’t know if he becomes a starting player. Did well for their goal. He started 42 games for Leicester last season in the Championship. 5.4m midfielder could be interesting if he starts regularly.

#FPL thoughts GW2 — All the games I watched fully or the extended highlights

Brighton vs United

— United defense better than last season. But, it’s still not very good. Lapse in concentration, midfielders not tracking back during counters means United will give away chances.

— Bruno still a fine asset. Mins, penalty still there. But, the team is not consistent enough to trust them.

— Garnacho may come back into the starting 11. May become an asset in the future.

— Brighton attack very good. All their attackers can be good assets depending on mins. Pedro, Minteh, Mitoma, Welbeck all look good. But, monitor their mins. Pedro moving to 9 when Welbeck is substituted is a positive for Pedro. Pedro on pens of course.

— Brighton playing an aggressive style leaving a lot of space behind their defense. Any team with pacy wingers would take advantage. Palace vs West Ham

— Eze extremely unlucky not to get return. I am talking about like 3 reruns maybe. Keep him if he is in your team.

— Bowen on corners is interesting. Improves his assist potential. He already has goal threat. One to keep an eye on for their good fixtures.

— Overall, a balanced game. Palace should have scored early. Once West Ham got their first goal the game opened up for West Ham counter attacks.

— Palace losing Olise and Andersen a concern. Let’s see who they sign and how they settle eventually.

— Mavropanos and Kilman higher on bonus than Bowen is interesting. This season bonus favoring attackers usually.

{THREAD} Best #FPL assets to target

- 2nd half of last season data from @FFScout analyzed
- Bonus data used for the full season after recalculation by @fplteam_

Details of the plot
- x-axis: NPxRpts = 4/5/6*NPxG + 3*xA + 0/1/4*NPxCS per 90. This number brings all the players, irrespective their positions, to the same table. Remember that this is non-pen data. For penalty takers, you will have to add a certain number and for defenders, you will have reduce the penalty data for the team

- y-axis: Bonus points per return from the full season data of last season

- Marker shape: Position; Size: Number of returns; Color: xMins

I wont go into the details since I have written a detailed thread on a similar topic earlier (see the last tweet on this thread)

- All players
- Premium players
- 7-8.5m players
- Below 7m players

1. All player
- One big thing to notice is bonus chances for defenders have gone down considerably
- Best for bonus: Chance creating machines or strikers from kind of not-so-strong teams
- Salah much ahead of others for underlying data 2. Premium players
- Bonus chances pretty similar. Foden a little ahead.
- Salah much ahead of others for underlying data.
- Salah, Haaland, Palmer, Saka, and Son have the pens
- Watkins underlying data not as good as Saka, Foden, Palmer
- Son data not great, but he consistently overperforms his xG

A thread of threads

2nd half of 22-23 PL season data analyzed

- Forwards
- Midfielders
- Defenders
- Goalkeepers
- Team data

#2ndHalfFC #FPL @OfficialFPL

1. Forwards

https://twitter.com/fplfrasier/status/1685470615644319744

2. Midfielders

https://twitter.com/fplfrasier/status/1685116919827886080

Best Midfielders to target in FPL

A Thread

- 2nd half data from @FFScout
- NPxGI per 90 vs Minutes per appearance
- Marker color shows total mins played
- Marker size shows bonus potential

RT appreciated #2ndHalfFC #FPL - You want midfielders who have high NPxGI and who play close to 90 mins per game
- Usually, I like players who have NPxGI > 0.5
- Salah, Rashford, Bruno look like the best assets to own. Shows why they are popular this year. Salah price high considering Haaland perma cap option

{THREAD} Finding the best assets of the game

- 2nd half of last season data
- Attackers/defenders underlying data on the same platform

1. All assets
2. Best FPL assets
3. 7-10m FWD, MID
4. 5-7m FWD, MID
5. Defenders
6. 8m mids
7. Why defenders over attackers?

1. All players - Plotted Non-penalty expected returns, NPxR = NPxG+xA+xCS per 90mins on the x-axis and Minutes per appearance on the y-axis.
- What does NPxR signify? It gives a sense of number of returns expected (be it goals, assists, or CS)

{THREAD} PL21-22 2nd half (GW20-38) underlying data analyzed

1. Team
2. Forwards
3. Midfielders
4. Defenders

Stats @fbref and @FFScout

1. Let's begin with team performances - Both attack and defense
- xG per 90 on the x-axis and xG conceded (xGC) per 90 on the y-axis - City and Liverpool live in their own little world. Best teams in the league and they have the best assets. When possible, get maximum numbers of assets from those teams.
- Chelsea, Spurs, and Arsenal show both good attack and good defense
- Few other teams stand out

{THREAD} Leeds under Marsch and FPL

- Jesse March is the new manager of Leeds and in this thread, I would describe what I expect from Leeds in the coming games
- Marsch is a RB graduate who has worked with Ralf Rangnick closely and has been influenced by Ralf's philosophy - In short, then, you would expect transition-based attacking football where pressing will be a primary weapon of chance creation

Similarity with Bielsa
- Both managers like attacking football and their teams thrive in transition
- Good sign for Leeds' attacking assets

#WHUWOL

- Played at a pedestrian pace for the first 60 mins (till the West Ham goal). Only Hwang and to a lesser extent Rice were trying to up the tempo
- West Ham goal out of nowhere with Wolves poor defending
- Game got better after the goal West Ham focus
- Antonio looked better than he has looked recently. Could have played a few better passes during counterattacks
- Bowen playing almost like a 2nd striker. He is not involved much in buildup and progression. Good for FPL
- Cresswell and Bowen on set pieces

#EyeTestTime - Thoughts on a few GW6 games

#MCICHE
- Foden played as a false 9. KDB at left mid and Bernardo right mid. Bernardo played a bit deeper. Foden took corners from the right and KDB from the left. Their attack is much better with KDB in it (obviously)... ... Jesus first choice on the right now, I think. Jack growing in confidence. Played brilliantly and could have had 2 goals.
- Chelsea played an extremely low block. 5-3-2 formation. Think Timo is preferred in the big games when Chelsea play on the counter