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William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars! Profile picture
William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars!
@FamedCelebrity
Ex-SSgt. https://t.co/uURzW9z1pm EVERYTHING YOU BELIEVE IS WRONG https://t.co/s38sBlV0fb PRICE OF PANIC https://t.co/LJtUCrnvAw UNCERTAINTY https://t.co/YRklZQUf5g
6 subscribers
Nov 9 • 28 tweets • 7 min read
CLASS THREAD.

Collection of my (free, no sign up) PROBABILITY CLASS videos, based on my Uncertainty and Jaynes's Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science.

Based on UNDERSTANDING and not mechanics, which you can get anywhere.

Go beyond flawed Bayesian or frequentist views.Image Class 1: Probability is logic

Jun 3 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Science is broken. Here's some reasons why. The speech I gave at Hillsdale a year ago. The hilarious thing about that speech is that the science faculty had an "emergency meeting" before Greg and I talked.

But then they only asked a couple of harmless, softball questions,

Later...you won't believe me.
May 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
We do something amazing today, which you won’t find done is nearly any other probability course, unless that course is based on either of these two books. We prove:

1. Probability can be a number;
2. That this number has a certain numerical form, which is bounded in [0,1];
3... 3. That all probability is conditional;
4. That all probability is an extension, nay, completion of logic;
5. That probability, once the evidence and propositions are subjectively chosen, is like logic and entirely objective;
6...
Apr 28 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
My Hard Time Inside Elon "Free Speech" Musk's Twitter Jail - a Thought Criminal Reveals ALL!🧵🧵🧵

Musk's minions sent me to Twitter jail - for the FOURTH time - for quoting a book you have in your LOCAL LIBRARY.

What was this scary thought-criminal tome and tweet?

Read! Image Yes. This book was so HUGELY popular that the man who wrote it went on to win a leftist PULITZER PRIZE!

The book can be found today, IN PRINT, even in CANADA, the Wokest Wackiland in the World.

The quote was from - hold on your panties, nervous ones - MUSSOLINI!Image
Feb 23 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Curse Of The Enlightenment 🧵

Why are things so bad? And why will they continue to grow worse? The Enlightenment. Also known—or, rather, as it should be known—as The Great Corruption.

Some thoughts by David Stove.
Image Things are bad because we all believe the Enlightenment’s foundational axioms, all of which are false. But all of which drive much of our behavior and our thoughts. Image
Feb 14 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Indeed it is odd. Very. 🧵

Their religion is best characterized as a branch or offshoot of Judaism, but with an extra, non-divine prophet, Jesus.

Here's the history of the Wilks' religion, from wokepedia:
Image I think it is different than the Assemblies [note the plural] of Yahweh (who are bigger). They are the Assembly [no plural] of Yahweh. There do seem to be many overlaps in beliefs, though.

You can't get in their church without a background check: Image
Feb 14 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is a rediscovery of an argument that won a WORLDWIDE CONTEST.

Held by David Stove to find the Worst Argument In The World.

Short thread of the argument, which Stove called The Gem, and a link at the end to more info. About the Contest, Jim Franklin said, "In [Stove’s] marking scheme, half the marks went to the degree of badness of the argument, half to the degree of its endorsement by philosophers. Thus an argument was sought that was both very bad, and very prevalent."

The Argument next.
Dec 27, 2023 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Here's a small thread on a curious sermon by St. Bonaventure, describing 12 MIRACLES that took place on 25 December 0.

Jesus's birthday.

There will be much caterwauling denial anger ridicule scoffing tears weeping and gnashing of teeth when we reach #7. Image #1 'a fulgent star appeared in the sky in parts of the East'

The Star of Bethlehem. Image
Dec 21, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Some mighty good IMPORTANT news.

North Carolina tried to shut up a man named Nutt who was criticizing flaws in public works - using math.

Nutt didn't have an Expert "license", so the state threatened to arrest him.

Now Nutt was a trained engineer, but without the blessing. Image After he retired, among other things, he "testified about an error he discovered in a development plan's calculation of the capacity of a stormwater detention pond."

He testified that the state's stormwater system was "negligently designed". Etc.
Dec 6, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
NZ Leaked Vax Data, my analysis. 🧵

At bottom are links to my blog and SS for the FULL analysis.

I took the data as is. If it's a fraud, or incomplete, so is my analysis.

Thread only highlights the place where there might be a signal, but which is also being misinterpreted. There is no control group. This data only has people who got at least one shot. Ascribing causation or its strength is not possible. But there might be hints.

Here is a histogram of the number of days until death after getting just 1 shot, just 2, and so on, for those who died. Image
Dec 1, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Anybody who uses 'racist' or 'racism' as an accusation is deluded, or ignorant, or addled, or is an ideologue or a bad person.

Some wisdom from the late philosopher David Stove, on "racism". Image Stove: “'racism' is one of those words which are so perfectly foolish that they are valuable as diagnostics: no sensible person ever uses them, except in quotation marks.”

Next, why you should follow his example. Image
Sep 1, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“Over the next century or so, conservative estimates suggest a billion people could die from climate catastrophes, possibly more”

There are 36,525 days in the next century.

Thus, on average 27,379 people have to DIE EACH DAY of "climate catastrophes" for 100 straight years. If people don't die every day of "climate catastrophes", then they'll have to die in mass numbers on a smaller number of days

For instance, it would take ONE THOUSAND DAYS of ONE MILLION DYING EACH DAY to make one billion "climate catastrophe" deaths.

About THREE YEARS in toto.
May 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
How the worst statistical mistake of all time will doom us.

1. In Griggs v Duke Power Co, the Supreme Court in effect ruled that "discrimination" was henceforth a bad word, and that it could exist even when it did not. Image 2. Lack of Victim group proportion representation -in any activity or organization - became the standard for "proof" of discrimination, even if no person was individually "discriminated against" because he was a Victim.

This is the statistical mistake. Image
May 13, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Besides the rest of this fine thread, falsifiability is a failed philosophy.

1. Actually falsified but beloved or lucrative theories are rarely, or never, given up.

2. Most theories cannot be falsified. Most only say certain outcomes are improbable, not impossible. A theory must say X is IMPOSSIBLE, and we must observe X, for the theory to be falsified. That can happen, of course, but usually most theories are "fuzzy"; they say "X is NOT LIKELY", not impossible, so when X is observed, the theory is not falsified.
May 12, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
My friends, the "climate change" scare is great nonsense.

Here is how I know.

We hate credentials & they are the least of my argument. But they impress the uninformed. My BS is in meteorology; my MS is atmospheric physics; my PhD is in math stats, looking at forecast goodness. I have published in the Journal of Climate, among many other places. I was a forecaster with the National Weather Service. I was on the American Meteorological Society's Probability & Statistics Committee. I was Associate editor of Monthly Weather Review.

Et cetera.
May 10, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some notes on the Bud Light boycott victory

It was entirely spontaneous and unorganized. We can't do boycotts well, but this stuck.

The same men who said "Enough!" would go to Disney if their wives wanted to, even though Disney is far far worse. Men's wives don't pick the beer. After accounting for the genuine disgust of trannies prancing about, this is men not wanting to be seen as "faggots" or soft by other men. And they did this in a way they could directly control. No HR could lecture them on how they should buy the raindbow swill.
Mar 7, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Tuned into NPR to see if it's a bad as I remember.

They are dumping on Christianity. Many voices saying how they lost their faith. Usually through being exposed to "education".

"Deconstructors" trying to reinvent religion in their name.

Some soy voiced guy, etc. Professor of some kind. Uses upseak? Talks like this?
Mar 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
I was asked "How can one substantiate the argument that sodomy is wrong?"

Many ways. Readers might care to add to this hastily compiled list.

1. A man masturbating into the rectum of another man (or woman), has done nothing worth doing. Masturbation rots souls. 2. It is dangerous. Rips, tears, blood, feces, anal warts, HIV, cancers, and diseases of all stripes, some yet to be discovered, are spread this way.

3. It is disgusting. True, some of the disgust is culturally learned. But most comes from the act being against Nature.
Feb 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Everybody has heard the saying “correlation doesn’t imply causation.”

Yet with wee Ps, scientists say "my correlation IS causation!"

Which is every time a logical fallacy. wmbriggs.com/post/45670/ Image The p-value says, “The null that a coincidence happened is true, and here is the probability of something that happened; therefore, my correlation is causation.” This is false, a fallacy.

Again, every use of a p-value is a fallacy. Every as in every. Each one. Every time.
Jan 28, 2023 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Homosexuality is a mental illness. Small thread on Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's piece with same name.

kirkegaard.substack.com/p/homosexualit… First, doing this argument by "the science" is doing it the hard way. One prone to all the standard mistakes "the science" makes. Such as hysterically waving wee P-values around and screaming "My correlation is a causation!" Kirkegaard sees this, in part.
Jan 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Told this story many times. I was at a major medical annual meeting, and well known doc was giving talk on pharmaceuticals.

I asked him, "How much of an effect do huge number of Ask Your Doctor If X Is Right For You ads have on prescription behavior?"

He denied ads had any. You have to laugh.

This was in mid 2000s, when I was a prof in the Cornell Medical school in Department of Medicine.