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William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars! Profile picture
William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars!
@FamedCelebrity
Ex-SSgt.
6 subscribers
Oct 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Nobody Believes Anything Based On “No Evidence”

A common scurrilous sophomoric ridiculous false charge leveled against those of a religious bent, and made by some atheists, is that the religious hold their beliefs “Based on no evidence.” Image No one believes any thing, or even holds the uncertainty of any thing, “Based on no evidence.” Even stronger, no one can hold any belief, in certainty or uncertainty, without some evidence.
Aug 5 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Academics Say It's Morally Obligatory To Bioengineer Ticks To Stop You Eating Meat🧵

Our paper is “Beneficial Bloodsucking” from Messers Parker Crutchfield and Blake Hereth, in the august pages of Bioethics. Image Their Abstract (with my emphasis): Image
Aug 4 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
New Definition Of Death To Increase Organ Harvest Bounty🧵

Sandeep Jauhar: “Death is not simply a biological fact, but it’s also a social choice.” Death has become a social choice? He continues: “To increase the number of donor organs, we should expand the definition of death.” Image This op-ed will, as you will see, show the extreme dangers of putting doctors in charge of non-medical questions, such as what death is and what is allowable in medicine. Memorizing bone names confers no moral or ethical advantage or philosophical or theological insight.
Jun 30 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The DOOMSDAY Argument -- Doomed.🧵

Also called the Carter Catastrophe, some researchers believed they discovered, through purely probabilistic reasoning, a formula which shows man has only ~700 years left.

Vdeo at end. Image Poundstone calculated we have a 50-50 chance of surviving 760 years.

His argument:

1. Your birth is not special, so you had a 50% chance of being born in the middle of man's reign.

2. There were to date about n = 100 Billion of us.

3. There will be N total men.
Jun 18 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output🧵

It seems a battle most impossible to convince a good chunk of the population that AI is nothing more than a model. Image A model written in code, which of course the coders know because they are writing it, code that carries out explicit instructions, and only explicit instructions. Code that runs on machines that operate in fixed and directed ways.
May 28 • 32 tweets • 7 min read
IQ Is Not Intelligence🧵

We continue our quest to disabuse ourselves of the notions that “IQ” is intelligence and that one-number of summaries of intelligence are adequate. All I hope for, likely in vain, is for us to say intelligence instead of IQ when we mean intelligence.Image IQ is a score on tests that measures, however crudely or accurately, some but not all aspects of intelligence. Scores on a test are not intelligence: intelligence goes toward producing scores. Single-number scores cannot capture all there is to intelligence.
May 21 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?🧵

Everybody knows that bad black behavior of all kind is being ignored, excused or outright celebrated.

One example will suffice. (All links at thread end.) Image After the lifelong thug and criminal lowlife George Floyd met his expected end—poisoning himself with drugs and engaging in all manner of misbehavior—our rulers and “elites” fell to their knees, even in Congress itself, to show their adoration of black criminality.
May 20 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food🧵

In the 1970s the fear was mass starvation. There were soon, they said, to be too many people, which would lead to disastrous pressure on the food supply, and we’d run out. Some said this was to be because of Global Cooling, which was the environmental theory in vogue then. Others, like the continuously venerated and awarded Paul Ehrlich, said it was because of mankind’s predilection to breed.
Apr 22 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
A New Physics Arises!🧵

Science can be saved by returning to its classical roots Irreducible by Federico Faggin Reviewed Image Physicist and microchip inventor Federico Faggin is an open unabashed enthusiastic panpsychist. Any number of such people are found in the sandal-shod organic trail-mix crowd, the sort who willingly live in Ithaca, NY.
Apr 21 • 40 tweets • 6 min read
Why You Should Not Trust Most Science🧵

Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested Image You see a drug commercial on TV and are impressed by the cavorting of the actors. You want to cavort. So you go to the doctor and ask him if Profitol is right for you. You ask him the chance the pill will let you cavort. He won’t tell you. He can’t tell you.
Apr 21 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Many similar charts, all describing the flight from Reality into Fantasy. Not surprisingly, the trends are usually lead by women.🧵

For instance: % LGBT by sex. Women on top. Image Even among blacks, which had men flee from Harris support: Image
Apr 8 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence. 🧵

"New research shows..." No more wee Ps!

Here is pictorial proof of why you must distrust “research shows” science: Image What a z-value is isn’t important for us. The +/-2 is because (for those who don’t know) z-values greater or equal to this, in absolute value, are awarded the magical distinction of significance. That is possession of a wee P; a p-value less than the magic number. Image
Mar 25 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Why Does Science Say Everything Will Kill You?

Everything, Science says, will kill you or ill you. Or cure you. Why? Partly because government funding drives too much science. But more because of a lingering pagan belief in probability as cause.🧵 Image Pop open a spreadsheet and enter everything you have ever ate, when, and what quantities. Include all chemicals in the ingredients, and their amounts. Be specific: this is Science.

Do this for every event ever in your life. Same with every malady, disease, concern, or death.
Mar 24 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The Enormous Rotten Egg Of Government-Funded Science Has Turned Men Weak

Recall first that stereotypes are almost always true, though their ascribed causes can be wrong.🧵 Image A passage from The Enormous Egg, showing manly arguments in science, a then-common trope. Image
Mar 8 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING! Greater exposure to epidemiology papers from Harvard's TH Chan School of Public Health associated with rising blood pressure in those who warn about the sins and excesses of epidemiology.

This is as bad as all the rest.🧵 They asked people what they ate by questionnaire; memories were documented to be poor. People answered differently about half the time when asked about what butter/oil they ate.

How much butter, how much oil did YOU eat November 2022, Anon? This is science: be exact!
Feb 26 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Were we people supposed to be here?

A short thread on the anthropic principle, with full details at the link.🧵 Whatever is has to have a reason why it is the way it is. So it is with the world; or, if you want to sound more science-like, the universe. This is the principle of sufficient reason. Things cannot exist or be like they are for no reason.
Dec 28, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
SCIENCE GOOD & BAD THREAD.

Collection of good and bad science; mostly bad, given the times we are in. 1. The lesson scientists never learn

Dec 5, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Now that a Health Insurance guy has been whacked, it's time to review.

Health Insurance should be, but isn't, a bet you make that you hope you lose. It became instead a form of socialized medicine, increasing costs.

A small 🧵to explain. You bet with an Insurer that you get cancer, say. If you get it, the Insurer pays costs of care X. If you lose and remain cancer free, you pay Y.

You re-bet every month (or whatever). You pay Y every time you lose.

That is the bare bones of true Insurance.
Nov 9, 2024 • 28 tweets • 7 min read
CLASS THREAD.

Collection of my (free, no sign up) PROBABILITY CLASS videos, based on my Uncertainty and Jaynes's Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science.

Based on UNDERSTANDING and not mechanics, which you can get anywhere.

Go beyond flawed Bayesian or frequentist views.Image Class 1: Probability is logic

Jun 3, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Science is broken. Here's some reasons why. The speech I gave at Hillsdale a year ago. The hilarious thing about that speech is that the science faculty had an "emergency meeting" before Greg and I talked.

But then they only asked a couple of harmless, softball questions,

Later...you won't believe me.
May 13, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
We do something amazing today, which you won’t find done is nearly any other probability course, unless that course is based on either of these two books. We prove:

1. Probability can be a number;
2. That this number has a certain numerical form, which is bounded in [0,1];
3... 3. That all probability is conditional;
4. That all probability is an extension, nay, completion of logic;
5. That probability, once the evidence and propositions are subjectively chosen, is like logic and entirely objective;
6...