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William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars! Profile picture
William M Briggs - Statistician to the Stars!
@FamedCelebrity
Ex-SSgt. https://t.co/uURzW9z1pm EVERYTHING YOU BELIEVE IS WRONG https://t.co/s38sBlV0fb PRICE OF PANIC https://t.co/LJtUCrnvAw UNCERTAINTY https://t.co/YRklZQUf5g
6 subscribers
Apr 22 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
A New Physics Arises!🧵

Science can be saved by returning to its classical roots Irreducible by Federico Faggin Reviewed Image Physicist and microchip inventor Federico Faggin is an open unabashed enthusiastic panpsychist. Any number of such people are found in the sandal-shod organic trail-mix crowd, the sort who willingly live in Ithaca, NY.
Apr 21 • 40 tweets • 6 min read
Why You Should Not Trust Most Science🧵

Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested Image You see a drug commercial on TV and are impressed by the cavorting of the actors. You want to cavort. So you go to the doctor and ask him if Profitol is right for you. You ask him the chance the pill will let you cavort. He won’t tell you. He can’t tell you.
Apr 21 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Many similar charts, all describing the flight from Reality into Fantasy. Not surprisingly, the trends are usually lead by women.🧵

For instance: % LGBT by sex. Women on top. Image Even among blacks, which had men flee from Harris support: Image
Apr 8 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence. 🧵

"New research shows..." No more wee Ps!

Here is pictorial proof of why you must distrust “research shows” science: Image What a z-value is isn’t important for us. The +/-2 is because (for those who don’t know) z-values greater or equal to this, in absolute value, are awarded the magical distinction of significance. That is possession of a wee P; a p-value less than the magic number. Image
Mar 25 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Why Does Science Say Everything Will Kill You?

Everything, Science says, will kill you or ill you. Or cure you. Why? Partly because government funding drives too much science. But more because of a lingering pagan belief in probability as cause.🧵 Image Pop open a spreadsheet and enter everything you have ever ate, when, and what quantities. Include all chemicals in the ingredients, and their amounts. Be specific: this is Science.

Do this for every event ever in your life. Same with every malady, disease, concern, or death.
Mar 24 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The Enormous Rotten Egg Of Government-Funded Science Has Turned Men Weak

Recall first that stereotypes are almost always true, though their ascribed causes can be wrong.🧵 Image A passage from The Enormous Egg, showing manly arguments in science, a then-common trope. Image
Mar 8 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING! Greater exposure to epidemiology papers from Harvard's TH Chan School of Public Health associated with rising blood pressure in those who warn about the sins and excesses of epidemiology.

This is as bad as all the rest.🧵 They asked people what they ate by questionnaire; memories were documented to be poor. People answered differently about half the time when asked about what butter/oil they ate.

How much butter, how much oil did YOU eat November 2022, Anon? This is science: be exact!
Feb 26 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Were we people supposed to be here?

A short thread on the anthropic principle, with full details at the link.🧵 Whatever is has to have a reason why it is the way it is. So it is with the world; or, if you want to sound more science-like, the universe. This is the principle of sufficient reason. Things cannot exist or be like they are for no reason.
Dec 28, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
SCIENCE GOOD & BAD THREAD.

Collection of good and bad science; mostly bad, given the times we are in. 1. The lesson scientists never learn

Dec 5, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Now that a Health Insurance guy has been whacked, it's time to review.

Health Insurance should be, but isn't, a bet you make that you hope you lose. It became instead a form of socialized medicine, increasing costs.

A small 🧵to explain. You bet with an Insurer that you get cancer, say. If you get it, the Insurer pays costs of care X. If you lose and remain cancer free, you pay Y.

You re-bet every month (or whatever). You pay Y every time you lose.

That is the bare bones of true Insurance.
Nov 9, 2024 • 28 tweets • 7 min read
CLASS THREAD.

Collection of my (free, no sign up) PROBABILITY CLASS videos, based on my Uncertainty and Jaynes's Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science.

Based on UNDERSTANDING and not mechanics, which you can get anywhere.

Go beyond flawed Bayesian or frequentist views.Image Class 1: Probability is logic

Jun 3, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Science is broken. Here's some reasons why. The speech I gave at Hillsdale a year ago. The hilarious thing about that speech is that the science faculty had an "emergency meeting" before Greg and I talked.

But then they only asked a couple of harmless, softball questions,

Later...you won't believe me.
May 13, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
We do something amazing today, which you won’t find done is nearly any other probability course, unless that course is based on either of these two books. We prove:

1. Probability can be a number;
2. That this number has a certain numerical form, which is bounded in [0,1];
3... 3. That all probability is conditional;
4. That all probability is an extension, nay, completion of logic;
5. That probability, once the evidence and propositions are subjectively chosen, is like logic and entirely objective;
6...
Apr 28, 2024 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
My Hard Time Inside Elon "Free Speech" Musk's Twitter Jail - a Thought Criminal Reveals ALL!🧵🧵🧵

Musk's minions sent me to Twitter jail - for the FOURTH time - for quoting a book you have in your LOCAL LIBRARY.

What was this scary thought-criminal tome and tweet?

Read! Image Yes. This book was so HUGELY popular that the man who wrote it went on to win a leftist PULITZER PRIZE!

The book can be found today, IN PRINT, even in CANADA, the Wokest Wackiland in the World.

The quote was from - hold on your panties, nervous ones - MUSSOLINI!Image
Feb 23, 2024 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Curse Of The Enlightenment 🧵

Why are things so bad? And why will they continue to grow worse? The Enlightenment. Also known—or, rather, as it should be known—as The Great Corruption.

Some thoughts by David Stove.
Image Things are bad because we all believe the Enlightenment’s foundational axioms, all of which are false. But all of which drive much of our behavior and our thoughts. Image
Feb 14, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Indeed it is odd. Very. 🧵

Their religion is best characterized as a branch or offshoot of Judaism, but with an extra, non-divine prophet, Jesus.

Here's the history of the Wilks' religion, from wokepedia:
Image I think it is different than the Assemblies [note the plural] of Yahweh (who are bigger). They are the Assembly [no plural] of Yahweh. There do seem to be many overlaps in beliefs, though.

You can't get in their church without a background check: Image
Feb 14, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is a rediscovery of an argument that won a WORLDWIDE CONTEST.

Held by David Stove to find the Worst Argument In The World.

Short thread of the argument, which Stove called The Gem, and a link at the end to more info. About the Contest, Jim Franklin said, "In [Stove’s] marking scheme, half the marks went to the degree of badness of the argument, half to the degree of its endorsement by philosophers. Thus an argument was sought that was both very bad, and very prevalent."

The Argument next.
Dec 27, 2023 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Here's a small thread on a curious sermon by St. Bonaventure, describing 12 MIRACLES that took place on 25 December 0.

Jesus's birthday.

There will be much caterwauling denial anger ridicule scoffing tears weeping and gnashing of teeth when we reach #7. Image #1 'a fulgent star appeared in the sky in parts of the East'

The Star of Bethlehem. Image
Dec 21, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Some mighty good IMPORTANT news.

North Carolina tried to shut up a man named Nutt who was criticizing flaws in public works - using math.

Nutt didn't have an Expert "license", so the state threatened to arrest him.

Now Nutt was a trained engineer, but without the blessing. Image After he retired, among other things, he "testified about an error he discovered in a development plan's calculation of the capacity of a stormwater detention pond."

He testified that the state's stormwater system was "negligently designed". Etc.
Dec 6, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
NZ Leaked Vax Data, my analysis. 🧵

At bottom are links to my blog and SS for the FULL analysis.

I took the data as is. If it's a fraud, or incomplete, so is my analysis.

Thread only highlights the place where there might be a signal, but which is also being misinterpreted. There is no control group. This data only has people who got at least one shot. Ascribing causation or its strength is not possible. But there might be hints.

Here is a histogram of the number of days until death after getting just 1 shot, just 2, and so on, for those who died. Image
Dec 1, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Anybody who uses 'racist' or 'racism' as an accusation is deluded, or ignorant, or addled, or is an ideologue or a bad person.

Some wisdom from the late philosopher David Stove, on "racism". Image Stove: “'racism' is one of those words which are so perfectly foolish that they are valuable as diagnostics: no sensible person ever uses them, except in quotation marks.”

Next, why you should follow his example. Image