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Hilalian Merchant Profile picture
Hilalian Merchant
@FiatElpis
https://t.co/bir6YHgkrv Managing a $15m hedge fund. signal provider & macro strategist ex GS/Citi
Aug 16, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There are two themes at play right now factor and macro wise
A) Delta : Implications on GDP/Growth for the 3rd quarters as schools reopen and cause a potential spike in cases + long term implications on terminal growth rate if this thing just stays with us eternally.
B)Tapering The problem is that A & B give you opposite trades
A : Short Cyclicals / Long duration growth, Short RTY, YM Long NQ, in Fx it's messed up, Long bonds across the curve and for the long term implications Long Tbond and $TIP / $LTPZ
Oct 28, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Long Nasdaq & CAC40 into EOW Why CAC 40 ?
It's down 10% since last 3 days : buy the news, sell the rumor. Macron has exposed a clear path out of lockdown and this lockdown isn't nearly as bad the previous ones. construction work will remain open, people will be working if need be, schools open.
Oct 27, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
You've got to hedge some EUR here guys
Everyone long EUR Allow me to develop: Macron floating second lockdown possibility and it is real. At current rate, FRENCH ICU Beds will be full in around 3 weeks. Even if you take into account the current curfew measures to have some impact, it is highly likely that this is too late.
Sep 3, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/Recap of what has transpired so far and where we are.
a) Option MM dealer inventory swell to an uncomfortable level due to relentless OTM Call buying. > 2 ways to solve this : 1. Jack up IVs to stop them form buying more calls > problem is as a big call seller the MtM on the old calls u sold would near destroy u p&l or make u bankrupt even though it would just be "paper losses" - although if the worst comes that s how u gonna do it
Apr 7, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
#TRADEIDEA 1/
Bearish stonks
Long Oil
Short gold (when the headlines hit) 2/ First see above for a little recap of what's happened so far and what matters are clearly two things :
WHEN DO WE GET RID OF LOCKDOWNS
WHAT STIMULUS IS THERE
Mar 30, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Let's recap/add to this
1. dunno about pensions but i think CNBC crowd are buyers even though stocks are already expensive >2600
2. Narrative is : Euro cases are peaking, only one left is US, we have a definitive template for how long / how this goes on. 3.Treatments now poping up : JP/US efforts/china/ CL+Azy protocol
4.Lockdowns/Quarantines already established.
5. No redemption efforts as per reporting
6. Nancy floating bill 2
What is bad and being ignored : Texas situation
What will send us to the lows/new lows ?
Mar 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My model suggests FV multiple NTM of 16.5x
It could be higher with further FED action :
Implementation of US CSPP and or YCC which could raise that to as much as 20x imo
Other bullish signal involve oil mkts and i've discussed them extensively. The FV is lower than my previous one because it seems that Governors across the US are responding (imo) in an unnecessarily emotional way by curtailing all economic activity. I adhere to the "natural way" here of dealing with epidemics cf UK/Netherlands so far.