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Financelot Profile picture
Financelot
@FinanceLancelot
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Jun 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Yellen was questioned about China suddenly dumping $859B US treasuries due to war

Few understand the US has already been preparing for this event which is why they're restricting the Dollar supply by destroying crypto exchanges, raising rates & have $2.5T in Reverse Repo waiting
By preparing for this event the US has effectively discouraged it from happening. US treasuries can only be sold for Dollars. A spike in Dollar demand would allow the US to print & buy all excess treasuries

China would then see borrowing costs skyrocket, destroying their economy
Jan 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Fed has themselves in an uncomfortable position. The 2yr yield wants the Fed 2 lower rates

If they lower, oil & markets R primed 2 spike like 2007, postponing the recession 4 a yr. If they don't markets crash

So here we are, the Fed is saving markets before an election (again) Assuming Biden isn't resigning his team has 2 make a choice, do they try pushing the recession past 2024 or do they crash it now so recovery begins beforehand

Bush tried this & failed. Pushing it out means oil/inflation comes back this yr worse than before, a lose lose situation
May 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So it looks like this rally is setting up to crush volatility again like Jan & Mar. Turns out May 16 was the start of this Powell pullback similar to Mar 15.

Depending on the rally strength, May 26 or Jun 6 is likely the bottom dates for VIX. Jun 6 would be a repeat of Jan & Mar Based on the volume levels & long-term trend 12400 could be the area where the Nasdaq's 2nd wave fails.

Most recessions/corrections have 2 repeat waves before the real collapse. Weird part is the 2nd wave typically last 1/2 as long as the 1st, matching May 26 on the VIX.

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