What’s the most sensitive book (business) to long term interest rates ? Life insurance ? You pay $500 per month and once you die your beneficiaries get $1mm. Ignoring any assumptions, the policy when purchased assumed that the lifeco takes your premiums, invests them in bonds, and by the time you are expected to die they’ll earn more than $1mm.

Durables. Traditional breakout. Bullish triangle today based off close only PNF Triple top breakout on high -low Trad PNF

$bpspx $BPOEX

In 1971, the year Nixon killed the gold standard, average college graduate starting salary was $9,886, or 282 oz of gold, under the gold peg. That’s roughly 13% of an ounce per hour. This is $514k in today’s fiat. Minimum wage was $1.60, or 4.57% of an ounce of gold, per hour. In 1979, the avg starting salary of college grads was $16,692. This was about 76 oz earlier in the year but when inflation went parabolic by Jan 1980 this salary was ~ 24 oz of gold. In modern fiat that’s $139k and $44k

Recap of Powell verbiage today We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive

Meta and Google are cutting staff. Just don’t mention layoffs wsj.com/articles/meta-… Non paywall link foxbusiness.com/technology/met…

$DEI (office+multi fam res REIT) CEO: recession could be “good” if “unemployment… puts employers back in the drivers seat”. 👈 I’d be whining too if I just gave back 61.8% of thirteen years. #puts theintercept.com/2022/08/24/une…

See what happened ? Bulls feel relaxed bcos the floor didn’t open up. And there was green sprinkled to entertain the masses. Yet the index bled some more. THIS is distribution. Big money buys over time. And price is supported. Whenever I see moronic pumping off the open -ABSENT MACRO OR STOCK CATALYST - I automatically think that it’s decoy of some sort .

The next financial crisis may already be brewing — but not where investors might expect marketwatch.com/story/the-next… A growing number of traders, academics, and bond-market gurus are worried that the $24 trillion market for U.S. Treasury debt could be headed for a crisis as the Federal Reserve kicks its “quantitative tightening” into high gear this month.

Goldman Sachs preparing layoffs across 👉all departments👈 as soon as next week: report. $GS nypost.com/2022/09/12/gol… “Over the summer, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley both reported surprisingly steep profit drops. JPMorgan revealed its investment banking fees tanked 54% in the most recent quarter. Morgan Stanley said its equity underwriting fees were off 86%. “. $JPM $MS

$SPY daily candle $SPY daily raindrop instead of a candle

Sentiment and elf flow wise bulls have advantage today. If they don’t meaningfully convert that should be a tell in itself. But just thinking conceptually what’s the path to Fed LOWERING the rates ? None without blood. Right.? I mean let’s say if Fed is done whether at 5 or 4.25 or in between. Lots of suits were getting all 💦💦 on hard hikes cuz they think Fed smashes the economy and will have to stimulate but what if they don’t ?

Bond default insurers Credit rating agencies and consumer credit. They get paid when? When new debt is issued, when people pull reports for homes/autos etc.

LOL. National

$GSHD personal insurance broker ( homes , cars) $GSHD all this auto stock drool should be boolish for brokers no?

Wages. In gold. Non log. This. This is why the oligarchs are freaking out. @biancoresearch 👇 How much Dow can wages buy?

$GS Goldman’s Apple Card business has a surprising subprime problem Goldman’s loss rate on credit card loans is the worst among big U.S. card issuers and “well above subprime lenders” at 2.93%, according to a Sept. 6 note from JPMorgan. cnbc.com/2022/09/12/gol… The profile of Goldman’s card customers actually resembles that of issuers known for their subprime offerings. More than a quarter of Goldman’s card loans have gone to customers with FICO scores below 660

This is the first time in my life where the Fed views American wages as the problem. In 1971, when the gold standard ended, minimum 🇺🇸 wage was $1.60 and that was 4.57% of one ounce of gold. Tell me more about todays wages being a MF problem ?? Wages in gold 👇 Ah yes but the log scale. Oligarchy is so levered up that the poors wages creeping is magnified TO THEIR PnL and asset bubbles that we must burn it all down amirite @federalreserve ?

*Must read*. All of it. Plz take the time. “Mortgages are covered poorly in financial press, as stocks and such are much more entertaining. Today’s events still unfolding will take days for good coverage. “ H/t @calculatedrisk 👇 cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-ne… “During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand out. Today makes five. “

XLE / QQQ weekly XLE

Bullish percent spx