This trendline is amazing. Just 13% said in an Axios/Ipsos poll in September they'd get the vaccine as soon as possible. That's up to 57% now! Meanwhile % who said they'd wait & see dropped from 64% to 28%. Awesome news. cnn.com/2021/03/06/pol… @ForecasterEnten The not awesome news is the % who say they'd never get it has stayed at about 20%. These are the hardline no vaccine folks. Unlikely much will move them. cnn.com/2021/03/06/pol…

There seems to be this belief out there that Biden's problems with Blacks/Hispanics is somehow deadly to his campaign? Just remember that White voters will make up ~70% of voters, and Biden's doing 8-9 pts better with them than Clinton did in final pre-election polls. Biden has this weirdo ability to create coalitions that are passé... but nonetheless seem to be working quite well if you believe the polling. Same was true in the primary.

CBS News/YouGov has polled in the last month the 9 closest states Trump won. None of those states gave Biden a margin of greater than 6 points. Biden needs to win at least 1 (and probably 2-3). Their national poll during the same period had Biden +10. cnn.com/2020/08/09/pol… As @Nate_Cohn was pointing out, the CBS/YouGov polls really do show a uniform swing. All but AZ showed a shift of 7 points, +/- 1 pt. And zero gap between the Great Lake & Sunbelt states in terms of the average shift. cnn.com/2020/08/09/pol…

From what I can, there have been 7 Dem House internal polls taken & released this month. 5 of 7 (71%) have included a prez race question. Meanwhile, 8 GOP house internal polls taken & released this month. 3 of 8 (38%) included a prez race question. (1/?) In the Dems, Biden is outrunning Clinton by an average of 11 pts. In the GOP seats, Biden is outrunning Clinton by an average of 4 pts. Assuming a 3-4 pt house effect for when a side releases, the two are consistent. With Biden outrunning Clinton by 7 to 8 pts. (2/?)

Clinton won black voters by 79 pts in registered voter pre-election polls, & by 81 in the exits. Biden since late May (in a dozen polls & 1500k+ interviews) is up 75 pts. Biden's margin essentially unchanged from polls taken pre-protests. cnn.com/2020/07/21/pol… This essentially indicates that, at least among African-American voters overall, the protests after the killing of George Floyd did not shift voter preference. Movement instead came from white voters. cnn.com/2020/07/21/pol…

I wrote this piece on the eve of the 2016 election. Trump had a real chance of winning based on the polls. fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump… Where we are right now is just not even anywhere in the same ballpark. (1/?) For one thing, Trump's deficit to Biden like 2.5 to 3 times as much in the national polls. For another, the economy suggests Biden's gonna win, while it said no such thing about Clinton... Now this could change (4 months), but yea Biden's well ahead.

Live telephone polls released in May: Monmouth - Biden +9, CNN - Biden +5, Fox - Biden +8, Q-Pac - Biden +11, ABC/WaPo - Biden +10... I mean that friends is a very clear signal as to where the race is now... I will also note that while ABC/WaPo shows Dems less jazzed about voting... Fox showed Dems slightly more likely to say they were "Extremely motivated" than GOPers about voting in November. Monmouth showed Dems/GOP equal on "certain to vote".

My Mom has zero clue what Twitter is, but I'll tell you a little about her... After her 1st marriage, she was in her 30s... She went back home to Monticello, NY... and was unsure of her future... It would have been easy to lie down & give up... She decided to go back to school... Medical school, in particular... Keep in mind this was in the 1970s... Women weren't exactly a common sight at medical school... Especially women in their 30s... I asked her what motivated her to do it...

Why is Trump going to go Death Star on Biden? The answer is more voters hold a strong view (favorable or unfavorable) of Trump than any nominee in polling history. 69%, which is even greater than Trump from four years ago. Voters are locked in on Trump. cnn.com/2020/05/09/pol… Meanwhile, only 46% of voters have a strong opinion of Biden... So Trump's plan makes sense... Here's the issue. Everything we've seen so far in the polls suggest voters are determining their votes on how they feel about Trump, not Biden. cnn.com/2020/05/09/pol…

A look at history shows when you have a big non-economic issue (e.g coronavirus) the candidate who leads on how to best handle it wins. If Trump wants to win, he'll need to improve on handling coronavirus. Biden's beating him on handling it by a big margin cnn.com/2020/05/05/pol… The idea that Trump's going to win if the economy comes back doesn't make a slew of sense if the virus is still devastating. The polling now right now shows COVID-19 as a top problem more so than almost any non-econ problem in past 20 years per Gallup.

Gonna talk about the double-haters (i.e. those who dislike both major party candidates)... In 16, these voters infamously went for Trump by a 17 pt margin... and with them, he won the election... This year, as I've written about a ton, that's not the case. (1/?) Biden's the only winning among them by something like 50 to sometimes north of 60 points... So what has changed? Why is Biden doing so much better than Clinton was among this group? (2/?)

I think there is some preliminary evidence that Trump's advantage in the battlegrounds compared to nationally has been slipping over the past month cnn.com/2020/04/23/pol… Yes, we saw those Fox polls in MI/PA, where Biden did better than his long term averages in either state... and it's backed up by other state polls over the same period... but it's more than that...

Biden may have a young voter (18-34 year-old) problem. In last 5 live probability polls, he leads Trump by 14 pts. Clinton won them by 22 (or 24). Remember, Biden leads nationally by 6 (Clinton won by 2), so he's underperforming as he does better overall. cnn.com/2020/04/16/pol… In the final polls that included Sanders, Biden did ~8 pts worse among 18-34 year-olds in the matchups against Trump than Sanders. This despite Biden doing better overall against Trump... This follows Biden's poor performance with them in the primary.

When the margin is so close as it was in 2016, there are a lot of reasons Clinton lost. But I for life of me cannot quite grasp the idea that Biden needs to pay extra special care to young voters... (1/?) I mean I get the impulse... Biden has been doing quite poor with young voters... but this primary should teach folks that they make up a fairly small portion of the electorate. He's winning big league right now even as Sanders wins the youngest. (2/?)

So I've been thinking about ways to portray this... but pre-SC Biden was down 12 points nationally (ergo he needed to gain 12 pts to catch Sanders)... Right now, Sanders is down what? 8 in the vote so far... He needs to win the remaining by about that... (1/?) But the polling indicates he's down around 30 pts in the states that have yet to vote... That means he needs to climb 38 points in those states as an aggregate... So he needs 3x the bounce that Biden got coming out of SC... That is nutter butter... (2/?)

My Father, who was born in 27, and my Mom went out for their anniversary about 15 years ago... They went to a nice place... My Mother spots George Clooney... and can barely contain her excitement... (1/?) She nudges my Father and says "look, look there's Clooney!"... My Father responds with "OMG. Where is she?!" My Mom is slightly confused at first and realizes my Father is referring to Rosemary Clooney... (2/?)

This primary has been absolutely crazy, so any statement or Tweet has a shelf life of about 5 seconds... but it's possible... possible... we're underestimating the upside for Biden heading into next Tuesday... (1/?) There is 0 obvious events (doesn't mean one won't appear) to derail him. There are no debates for instance... And the bounce he's going to get out of the positive press he's gotten in the last 96 hours cannot be underestimated... but ultimately, this is about math (2/?)

A few thoughts: Biden hasn't been able to raise $ for jack. He did last night. Money raised != votes, but the two are correlated. And the fact that Biden raised so much for him is (I think) reflective of how quickly a bounce can build. (1/?) Id be frankly quite surprised if Sanders didn't hold clear delegate lead after Tuesday (@ least when all votes from contests r counted). Key for Biden will be to keep losses down + make it clear it's Sanders vs him. Then try to really close gap in FL. & then crush in Acela + NY.

Some light night thoughts... My own belief is that it doesn't particularly matter who wins or loses in IA. What matters is the expectations going in & under or overperforming those in the final count. What do I mean? (1/?) In the ste count (which is being hyped by major media), Sanders got what he polled. Biden did way worse. Buttigieg did way better. That was the key & what the media has largely run with. It also helps (though may ultimately) solve NH center/center-left's coordination problem.

I've written on it before (here just two weeks ago cnn.com/2020/01/12/pol…) and tweeted about... but I want to reemphasize that the Sanders path is increasingly clear to me. What have we seen? Well our CNN/DMR Iowa poll showed him at 20%. (Others were close enough). But what is key there is the trendline. We've seen it across the board too... Jump next to NH... Look at this very high quality poll showing him gaining & ahead wbur.org/news/2020/01/2…

I have a blog post on this coming up... I believe (much to my surprise) that this is good news for Biden and Buttigieg...

https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1215771512495624193?p=v

Reallocation is good news for them... Among those who don't have a 1st choice or whose top choice is one of top 4... Over 50% are actively considering Biden/Buttigieg. Only around 40% are actively considering Sanders/Warren.