Tesla is all about AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service), and the recent progress in FSD I believe has shifted how @elonmusk sees Superchargers. Resulting in him rebuilding the team from scratch in order to better achieve his new vision.
In the past and present, businesses have been interested in having Superchargers near them, because they bring in potential customers. The Destination Chargers play into this.
But two shifts are currently happening:
1) I said years ago that I thought Tesla would most likely end up with a majority market share in AMaaS, but anything other than a monopoly is looking less and less likely by the day. It's like Tesla is Mike Tyson fighting 3yr old children. Tesla has no real competition in autonomy.
2) Tesla is trending towards more and more dominance in the EV charging space with NACS becoming the standard, and the Supercharger Network opening up across the globe. I never cared much about this, because it doesn't contribute significantly to the bottom line, until I realised something.
2/4
What these two things mean is that Superchargers are going to be hubs for all terrestrial transport.
Just a few weeks ago it was announced that in the UK you can now order food via your Tesla and have it delivered to Supercharger locations. This is no coincidence.
Furthermore, Tesla has been experimenting with Superchargers that have diners and movie theaters. Yes, this is cool, but it's a lot more than that.
I believe a shift will happen from businesses competing to have Superchargers near them, to businesses competing to be near Superchargers.
I believe that malls, hotels, offices, and just about everything else will eventually flock to and be built around Superchargers, much like they are currently built around train stations. Simply because it's where robotaxis, which will provide most of terrestrial transport, will have to charge, and so it's simply the most efficient thing to build everything around Superchargers.
Dec 24, 2022 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
1/17
With regards to $TSLA's price action, I have good news, good/bad news, and bad news.
Let's start with the good news
2/17
The good news is that it's pretty obvious that the price action over the past week and a half has been driven by a very large (non-Elon) seller.
Nov 26, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/12
Something may be going on with $TSLA short interest this year. Something reminiscent of the past that I thought $TSLA had moved past after 2020 and the S&P inclusion.
This thread explains what I noticed this week.
2/12
In 2018, Jesselivenomore presented his theory on TMC that certain entities were shorting $TSLA not for profit, but with the purpose of bankrupting the company.
Forward P/E is now at ~30, which is less than $NVDA and not far off $NFLX, both of which are expected to grow revenue single digits compared to Tesla's expected 55% revenue growth. 2/5
2023 is shaping up to be a terrible year economically, but Tesla should have no trouble selling every car it makes, because demand for EVs vastly outpaces supply. Furthermore, high oil prices are a part of this crisis until Ukraine conflict ends, which further pushes EVs.
Feb 28, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
3/9
You then hold the stock until one of two things happens:
1) Either the stock's current value (stock price) catches up to what you believe its actual value to be. 2) Or something happens that impacts your valuation, causing it to drop below the stock's current value.
4/9
I define risk in investing as the chance of your own valuation of an investment dropping. One way in which this can happen is if your assessment of the investment turns out to be wrong, and you miscalculated in some way.
Jan 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
@TeslaLife5@truth_tesla@Thinky78@TeslaPodcast@Tesla Stock price is a function of supply and demand. For me it's based on expectation of long-term financial performance, risk-level, opportunity cost, and some others. I think 2030 $TSLA bear case is $2-3k ($4-5k if solve autonomy), and bull case $10-12k.
@TeslaLife5@truth_tesla@Thinky78@TeslaPodcast@Tesla I also think risk is very low, and I'd have to invest a lot of time researching other companies to even find any I would want to invest in, and my time is scarce atm. I think $TSLA would have to be ~$2-3k before I'd personally even start to look for alternatives.
Dec 30, 2020 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1/14
Excellent question!
"Risk/reward ratio" is a term used in investing, but it's rarely quantified like one would quantify a debt/assets ratio. Risk/reward ratio is usually used more intuitively.
Usually people will use all their knowledge to make guesstimates about an investment like:
- 20% chance to go bust
- 20% chance to break-even
- 40% chance to double
- 10% chance to 4x
- 10% chance to 10x
And then state "for me, this is good from a risk/reward standpoint".
Dec 28, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
Because of certain comments @elonmusk has made, there has been some speculation about Tesla licensing its tech to other manufacturers, and even about Tesla merging with other car companies.
2/5
I don't believe this is the fastest path towards a sustainable energy future, and I don't believe Elon is seriously considering either of these right now, especially not a merger. For the time being, Tesla is able to scale much faster and more efficiently on its own.
Dec 12, 2020 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/18
Long thread ahead of $TSLA's first S&P week with some advice.
First off, to people only holding stock, my general advice is sit back, relax, and watch the show. Even before factoring in Tesla Energy and Autobidder, EVTOL jets, cooperation with The Boring Company, HVACs,
2/18
manufacturing as a service, electric boats, and various other potential lines of business, Tesla's long-term potential is enormous.
Tesla is basically untouchable in automotive, autonomy, and autonomous mobility as a service. Tesla will be a monster of a company 10-15 ...
Dec 8, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/14
Here's an update on my current take on $TSLA. But be aware, this is just one person's opinion, that could turn out to be wrong.
The most interesting thing so far, since the S&P announcement, has been the lack of volume. This means two things:
2/14
1) Buying so far has been limited. There's definitely been some front-running, speculation, and delta hedging, but I don't believe any big entities have started buying.
Nov 30, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6
I believe I've figured out who the mystery $TSLA investor is. Although it's still possible $BRK invested in $TSLA during Q3'20, I believe Softbank very likely took on a massive stake in $TSLA during Q3.
A few people asked me if it could be Softbank, but I previously dismissed them, because Softbank had filed a 13F indicating it sold its entire $TSLA position during Q3. But two new pieces of information now make me think Softbank took a massive stake in $TSLA during Q3.
Nov 28, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
I definitely won't be able to finish the S&P 500 inclusion part 2 post I'm working on this weekend. I have 1.5 pretty long sections left to write, and a lot of polishing and error fixing left to do.
2/5
To everybody who is looking forward to reading the post, I'd recommend doing some preliminary reading over the weekend. A few of my previous posts will help provide context, and will help you understand this upcoming post.
Nov 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5
Here's some insight into what goes into writing some of my large blog posts. Here is what has gone into the one I am currently working on so far:
2/5
Dec'19 - Oct'20: A few hundred hours of research into topics such as delta hedging, $TSLA's options market, and the S&P 500.
Early Nov'20: A couple of hours of updating my TSLA Holders spreadsheet, which keeps track of TSLA's biggest shareholders.
Nov 18, 2020 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/16
Thread on Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla.
Yesterday, I pointed out in this quoted thread that, based on data I gathered from 13F filings, a large number of TSLA shares seem to have gone missing during Q3, to the tune of 100M shares.
I made a small mistake, so the number is actually a little over 50M shares, but nonetheless this is a large number of shares that can't be explained away by retail buying, delta hedging, and smaller institutional investors increasing their stakes.
Nov 17, 2020 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/18
$TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion is finally here, and it's shaping up to be a truly unprecedented inclusion. I outlined a few of the reasons why $TSLA's inclusion is so special in this blog post a few months ago:
The actual announcement has made it clear that the committee is also aware of the unique nature of this inclusion, because I've never heard of an inclusion quite like $TSLA's for two reasons.
Sep 23, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/6
My Battery Day Thoughts:
I continue to be thoroughly impressed by the Tesla team. Drew and the other engineers are rock stars. Super smart and motivated. I much prefer a hardcore technical presentation like this over the recent Cadillac and Lucid PR fests.
2/6
Today, Tesla already has a large lead in batteries, powertrain, software, engineering, manufacturing, etc. Battery Day made it clear that Tesla has some of the smartest people in the world working hard on continuously improving every piece of the entire battery supply chain.
Sep 10, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
I'm the total opposite. The Lucid 'unveil' was just an hour and a half promotional video and fake Q&A with questions to make itself look better. Very similar to the Cadillac EV 'unveil' from a while back.
Personally, I can't stand a company that presents itself like this. It comes across as fake, dishonest, and like they want to be seen as perfect. An unproven startup is not perfect. A more humble attitude would be more suitable for a company in Lucid's position in my opinion
Aug 28, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6
I'd be curious to know where they got that number. I believe that $55M should be in the ballpark of the cost of a single Falcon 9 launch, not a per seat price when 4-7 passengers on a flight. Starship will be at least an order of magnitude cheaper.
The big takeaway for me is that SpaceX is interested into getting into space tourism. If they do, I don't see how will be able to compete with SpaceX on price. @elonmusk 's goal is to eventually offer tickets to Mars for the price of a house after all.
Aug 23, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/8
Delta hedging can be self-fueling yes. The "Mechanisms" blog post does a good job of explaining it. But in essence:
Buying pressure -> SP rise -> market makers need to buy more to delta hedge -> further SP rise -> and on and on.
The thing is that everybody, both analysts and actual shareholders, have wildly different price targets for . I myself wouldn't divest much at a SP of <$10,000.
Large institutions might not be that price inelastic, but fact remains that it's easy to make a case for...
Aug 22, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/7
The $TSLA community has been of the opinion that managers of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 would all jump at the opportunity to front-run the inclusion.
2/7
The woman from this CNBC clip shows that many fund managers may understand TSLA so poorly that they believe the current valuation is nuts, and so they might prefer to not buy TSLA until after their performance is actually benchmarked to it, so as to not risk buying too high.
Jul 1, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/
Looking at the data, I'm now predicting around 101k deliveries for Q2'20, and $260M GAAP profit. I laid out the data, calculations, and assumptions in this blog post, but will try to summarize in the following tweets.
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