1/ My weekly trading thread:

⛔️ ⛔️ ⛔️ There are no 2:1 trades.

If I were ever to come back into the markets in another life, it would definitely be as a YouTube trader. 2/ Oh, how sweet life would be as I would trade only the past, creating perfect 2:1, 3:1, even 5:1 setups while convincing everyone that I could be a millionaire by Friday by trading something called "support and resistance."

1/ In the movie Moonstruck, the late great Olympia Dukakis wonders out loud, 'Why do men cheat?' She concludes that it's because all men are afraid to die. She then turns to her cheating husband and says, 'Cosmo, I just want you to know that you are going to die.' 2/ It's a great comic scene that could easily be repurposed to our world of trading, with Ms. Dukakis wryly staring at a group of traders and asking, 'Why do all you schmucks go on tilt? Because you are afraid to lose. And I just want you to know that you will all lose.'

1/ There is a wonderful scene in Ted Lasso where Ted hustles the club’s snooty owner at a game of darts. 2/ The clip is all over TikTok so I recommend you find it, but the gist of it is that the arrogant owner thinks a dumb American like Lasso couldn’t possibly be any good at darts and proceeds to lose a major bet to Ted who it turns out is somewhat of a darts shark due to his…

My Weekly Trading Thread
Coffee and Algos
Machines Still Can’t Beat Us

In some ways, 21st century New York resembles a 19th century metropolis more than it does the 20th. These days the city sidewalks are dotted with fruit stands and coffee carts just like on the Lower East Side in the late 1800’s. Entrepreneurial immigrants are willing to withstand sub zero conditions to run these things 24/7 in order to save paying rent.

1/ Does the stock market trend or range?
Both.
Here are four distinct times during the day when price action tends to do one or the other...
[My Weekly Trading Thread] 2/ When you are working out with weights it's a very good idea to take a pause every few days.

1/ Today was one of the worst trading days of the year for me. I lost 85% of my trades. The old me would have been down 200 bps on the day and broken a few screens along the way. But I actually ended up 10 bps to the good. So what did the new me do differently? 2/ For a mean reversion trader like me, today's slow and steady price action is pure poison. There are NO retraces. In fact the indices never even traded to their midpoints the whole freaking day - something I haven’t seen in months.

1/ So the TLDR on this week’s article on $TSLA from @barrons is that the company's plans to sell 5M units by 2025 may be ambitious because of the $TWTR side show. 2/ $TSLA uses virtually no advertising relying on the Musk brand to sell the cars, but the natural buyers for $TSLA are Blue while Musk’s brand has turned Crimson Red over the past 2 years creating a revulsion amongst his most natural buyers and perhaps forcing $TSLA to start…

1/ Ok, here is my massive thread on state of the Markets in November.
If you want to trade be sure to visit our partner surgetrader.com

So... where are the trades?
Equities 2/ Don’t fight the Fed was the mantra all throughout the go-go bull market of the 2010’s and it remains excellent advice now that we find ourselves in the post pandemic bear market hangover.

1/ The other day I stumbled across Horselover Fat’s (@Michigandolf) website where the very first thing that he says is that trading is gambling. Right away I knew this guy traded for real. 2/ Anyone who trades for more than half a second in the markets quickly learns that luck is a major factor of the day to day flows and that instead of suppressing this reality under the pretense of some statistical model we should embrace it with all our heart.

1/ Ok here is thread two of the @kevinmuir interview with @agurevich23
“Treat a trade like a bullet from a gun”.

Conventional wisdom states that as traders we should be nimble and react to new information swiftly. 2/ Thus the trading cliche repeated mindlessly by so many PMs on podcasts “we have a strong opinion weakly held” meaning that we are confident in the trade but if new data disproves our thesis we will bail from it like a flock of pigeons scattering on a sidewalk.

1/ @agurevich23 proving once again that Russian immigrants are some of the smartest people around :). There is so much wisdom in this interview with @kevinmuir that it deserves a couple of threads. So let me start with point number one : cost of carry. 2/ When traders consider a play they often overlook the cost of carry embedded in the transaction.

1/ My Weekly Trading Column

Who are You?

There is nothing more annoying, uncomfortable and unproductive than doing something you don’t enjoy over and over and over again. 2/ In our Anglo Saxon and Confucian worlds we are indoctrinated from birth to accept the fact that all progress comes through pain and discipline but that’s not really true.

1/ Love is Conditional and So is Your Profit

Everything in life is conditional. Even love. If you don’t believe me, just ask a divorced person and you will quickly realize that love like everything else depends on context. 2/ Don’t marry your position is an expression used often in trading and it carries more truth than you know as it points to the fact that the relationships we develop with our trades can sometimes be more binding than our relationships with people.

1/ Why am I going back to covering my face indoors despite the fact that I am fully vaxxed?

The delta variant is starting to really wreak havoc almost everywhere and is sure to get worse. 2/ Yea yea I know the chance of dying from COVID is basically 1%, so even if you get it you have a 99% chance of surviving it. This is a gross oversimplification and the odds are actually a bit worse, but I’ll give you this argument.

1/ This month Welles Wilder, a titan of technical analysis, passed away. He was the inventor of RSI, Parabolic SAR and Average Directional Index. 2/ There is no trader alive that has ever pulled up a chart and threw a few indicators on it that has not used Mr. Wilder’s inventions at one time in their life.
bit.ly/wilderrip

Three simple reasons why you should always use a robot to Day Trade

I am bored - let me try this random entry
You are sitting around staring at the screen for a good hour or so and the market is doing absolutely nothing. You’ve read the twitter feeds, caught up on the news from your CNBC/BBG stream, and are now basically twiddling your thumbs. You are bored and eager to start.

Suddenly the price action comes alive and whatever you are trading - EURUSD, Dow, Gold starts to rise in price.

Weekly Technicals
Dec. 16 - 20, 2019
EURUSD shooting star at 1.1200 suggests the top holds Weekly Technicals
Dec. 16 - 20, 2019
GBPUSD 1.3500 rejected but uptrend still in place. Buy the dip until 1.3200 if that breaks the long bias no longer holds

Weekly Technicals
Dec. 9 - 13, 2019
EURUSD - our Turn Indicator suggests top is in - 1.1000 back in view Weekly Technicals
Dec. 9 - 13, 2019
GBPUSD - 1.3000 clearly taken out 1.3200 is the next resistance point for the pair

Dec. 2-6, 2019
EURUSD - no major data
Legarde speech on Monday
1.1000 holds for now but US data drives flows Dec. 2-6, 2019
GBPUSD - UK Services PMI and polling drives trade
The election now Johnson's to lose
1.3000 still acting a big resistance

The Week Ahead in FX
Nov. 25-29, 2019
EUR clipped by bad EU data and better US results
1.1000 now key support
Monday - IFO
Thursday - CPI GBP - Brexit + weak EU market finally starting to take its toll.
Tories lead but relief rally may not come as Q4 looking like negative growth
No Data this week

Your ebook outlines a strategy that you call a “lockbox.” Can you take us through it?

The idea is that you segment your money. It’s similar to using “buckets” but with a time component. A retiree might have a box for 2020 and a box for 2021, and 2022, etc. In each box, you have a combination of safe assets, such as an annuity or TIPS [Treasury inflation-protected securities], and a market-based portfolio, such as one with stocks and bonds.