The US is basically saying that it is not bluffing and entirely willing to face higher prices in order to export civil unrest and economic turmoil to the rest of the world if they don’t play ball.
The US is tired of other countries and their protectionist policies which create large trade imbalances for the US but also happens to distort these foreign labor markets (through artificially weak currencies) and intentionally suppresses their quality of life.
Mar 26 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Every decision sets precedent for the future. Binance and Okx listing perps in Hyperliquid’s face does help their short-term incumbency status but it also sends the message to other cex and dex competitors of what to expect if they take on bad liquidations.
This has multiple negative effects. First, it means that challenger exchanges will be more robust in their risk management thus creating stronger competition for incumbents, like an immune response.
Mar 1 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Since everyone is trying to rewrite history, I as Tacitus, keeper of the crypto a[n]nals, will tell you the an alternative history of USDC. Once upon a time Circle looked upon USDT and thought, “damn, those guys over there are making a shit ton of money”.
They figured that the market’s big enough for two players. Plus even though their OTC desk was dominant along with Cumberland, how are you supposed to get a good rev multiple for valuation based on a trading business.
Jan 7 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Definitely some similarities. I would add that after the fall of the USSR, in the power struggle between the libertarian faction and the nationalist faction of the coalition, the nationalists won.
In my view, this is because the techno-capitalists are, by nature, more individualistic than the ethno-nationalists and thus have varying interests which pull them in many different directions.
Nov 26, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
MSTR is like a BTC ETF but with greater flexibility in being able to do treasury/trading operations. So as long as they continue to make good decisions, it makes sense that MSTR trades at a premium to the underlying.
The only question is how much of a premium is fair. The market is pricing this by pulling from the future, into the present, expected profits and profit growth.
Sep 3, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
After an exhaustive and costly investigation of nearly two years, and without admitting or denying the findings detailed in the SEC’s order, we agreed to settle with the SEC and pay a $225,000 penalty which will go directly to our investors.
We’re glad to put this matter behind us. We used Fireblocks, a non-qualified custodian, as a best-in-class solution to secure our crypto assets.
Sep 3, 2024 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
It seems that since the default Twitter algo changed, narrative formation in crypto has been weak, h/t @AlokVasudev. My guess is that half of CT is still trapped on the For You feed which drives TikTok-like engagement.
This feed often shows more polarizing political topics given the election coming up. The other half are on the Following feed whose algo may or may not have also changed from the old one.
Jul 17, 2024 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Tragedy of the Crypto Commons
Mostly agree with @AriDavidPaul and @ZeMariaMacedo assessments. Their suggestions on how to improve things will likely help. Still I don’t think there is an easy fix to the entire problem.
The core problem is that there are plenty of one-cycle oriented founders and VCs. This is because VCs have to make profits for their LPs and their LP capital largely comes from outside of the industry.
Jun 9, 2024 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Apologia of the Trader
What purpose does the short term trader serve? He builds nothing for consumption nor does he advance the sciences. To most tribesmen, the trader seems to be at best a sellsword, at worst an annoying buzzard.
In fact, the trader serves an important role in short term capital allocation. Not belonging to any tribe, the trader represents the marginal capital which longs underpriced assets and shorts overpriced assets.
Jun 6, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Degeneracy and the propensity to gamble cannot be solved by the social layer. In fact, it is so innate that it cannot even be solved with force.
There’s only one thing we can do. We can ask ourselves why degeneracy and gambling tendencies are on the rise. It’s the same reason for GME season 1 and season 2.
Jun 4, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Interesting debate about whether staking issuance or the selling of it is a cost. Staking is a near 100% transfer from non-stakers to stakers and the government (tax on yield).
On the other hand, in a PoW system, mining is a significantly less than 100% transfer from non-mining holders to miners and the government (tax on mining profit).
May 31, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A Future Eulogy for a Fallen Hero
When the mob finally sacrifices @blknoiz06, let it be said that he didn’t do anything particularly wrong. Was he a priest? No. But was he any worse than those who were crucified before him? Also no.
When the time comes, let us remember it as a Girardian comedy rather than a tragedy. Let us remember the joy he brought us wif his calls.
Apr 8, 2024 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Have been thinking about the ETH issuance curve debate recently. I think both sides make some good points. However, there are many more considerations that should be in scope but have not been brought up.
If the goal is to target a lower equilibrium staking ratio/level than the eventual 100% staking level due to the current issuance curve, you should consider secondary and tertiary effects from Ethena.
Feb 20, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
I gaze into my crystal ball and I see two possible futures for the industry. In one future, LRTs are accepted as collateral in CeFi and DeFi and looping is eventually allowed.
As more people synthetically sell their ETH through this mechanism, the basis yield is compressed to low single digits or zero. This drives down borrow costs for ETH.
Dec 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
This difficulty is exactly why I think bridges should be built with tolerance for safety failures of the underlying chains. The risks should be made transparent to users and users can decide if they want to use the bridge.
Contrast this with the earlier approach of bridge projects sweeping these types of risks under the rug and trying to guarantee safety, something which is not generically possible for all underlying protocol pairs.
Sep 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Pax Romana
I look around and what do I see. No more double digit billion market cap shorts to be had. I see the last grains of bitterness give way to sorrow and apathy.
Sep 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
"A man sees in the world what he carries in his heart." ~ Goethe, 'Faust'
"That which issues from the heart alone, will bend the hearts of others to your own." ~ Goethe, 'Faust'
Aug 13, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Even though I still think the fork is mildly accretive, long merge plays have overextended in my opinion. Hence, with a heavy heart, I’ve decided to express a net short on ETH by shorting in small size ETH Sep futs and long BTC in that size multiplied by ETH beta to BTC.
As everyone I talk to is long into the merge, it causes significant asymmetries between further upside value vs downside risks due to exogenous shocks and fragility.
Aug 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I agree that between Aristotelianism and Platonism, the mob is surely more Aristotelian. But when we divide things between Platonism and modern schools like Nietzsche and Foucault, the mob is surely more Platonic.
It’s essentially a gradient between the concrete/measured vs the abstract/analytical. The mob is lacking in abstraction ability but slowly gets better at it over centuries.
Aug 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Crito is my favorite of Plato’s works though I disagree Socrates in this passage. It’s my favorite because it explains why Socrates did not escape and flee his fate even though he had the opportunity to do so. He was Zeratul.
A lone man against a mob. A man persecuted for his ideas. Contrast this to the current day where Platonism is the rule. You could say that the entirety of western civilization was built on Plato, indirectly Socrates.
Aug 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I think it’s a decent point that it might be better to start new DeFi protocols from scratch and just airdrop users rather than inherit a mess. But this would depend on the weighing the value of user inertia vs cleaner state.
At a cheap enough price, some of these governance tokens will have some cheap call option value. It all depends on the specifics of the pools and whether it all gets drained during pandemonium or some don’t get drained.
